he biggest and boldest data is upon us once again and it is that time of the month that the headlines will print the most important piece of the economic data- the U.S. Non-Farm pay roll number. The data is due on Friday and the forecast is for 241K. As this number is closely watched by the Federal reserve bank in order for them to make their decision to raise the interest rate however, recently, inflation has increased its weight among other elements.
When we talk about inflation, it brings one affair in our mind, which is falling oil prices and its impact. Although monetary policy members are inclined to by-pass the transitory impact of weaker oil price, as the strength in the dollar is fading some of its impacts. A strong dollar is not really a buzzing news for the policy makers because of it deep impact on the export sector.
Check out the chart below to see what happened last month:
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This state of affair looks even more ill when you compare this to euro which is down nearly 18 percent against the dollar and this naturally tilts the scale of the export demand for the euro zone. Therefore, the U.S. producers have to look beyond their instinctive means to keep their cost of production curtail. If the product is labor intensive, it becomes even more challenging as this offset the lower input cost, and the bottom line shaves off additional margin revenue. The ISM manufacturing data which has been printing lower reading for the past four consecutive months is distinctly flashing this issue for the dollar traders.
Given that ISM manufacturing data plays an important role in the GDP growth data, a stronger NFP pay roll number on Friday may actually fuel the dollar rally more and thus hurting the export sector ie ISM manufacturing.
Traders all over the world are taking advantage of these excellent trading opportunities, so make sure you stay tuned and don’t miss out!!
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