Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for July 29 – August 02, 2024

EUR/USD: Europe is Not Doing Very Well, the US is Not Doing Very Badly

The main events in the currency market will unfold in the upcoming week, with meetings scheduled for Wednesday, 31 July, when the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) will convene, followed by the Bank of England's meeting on Thursday, 01 August. Even if interest rates and other monetary policy parameters remain unchanged in all three cases, investors will closely listen to the statements made by regulators at the subsequent press conferences, trying to predict their next steps. Therefore, in anticipation of these events, we have focused more on the cryptocurrency market in this review, while still covering Forex.

In early July, one of our review headlines read: "The US is Not Doing Very Well, Europe is Not Doing Very Badly." This time, we have reversed the positions of the US and Europe, prompted by the macroeconomic statistics released last week.

Vladimir Lenin, the leader of the Communists who led the 1917 revolution in Russia, stated in one of his works that "politics is the concentrated expression of economics." In our view, the reverse is also true: not only does politics depend on economics, but economics also depends on politics. This is exemplified by the scales, with the current monetary policy of the Federal Reserve on one side, and the concerning prospects of Donald Trump’s return to the White House on the other.

The restrictive tariffs that Trump aims to implement in the trade war with Beijing will create new problems for the Chinese economy, which is already struggling. This, in turn, will negatively impact Europe, particularly Germany, which accounts for half of the EU's exports to China. Within just three months, Germany's business activity indicators have shifted from slowing growth to abandoning optimism about economic prospects. The recent Business Activity Index (PPI) values for Germany, released on Wednesday, 24 July, were all in the red zone, falling below both previous figures and forecasts. Both the manufacturing PPI and the composite PPI are below 50 points, indicating regression. These German indices have dragged down overall European metrics, which have also turned worryingly red. While the US economy is merely slowing down slightly, the recovery of the Eurozone risks being reversed.

The preliminary data on business activity in the United States, released on the same day, 24 July, showed that the PPI in the manufacturing sector decreased from 51.6 to 49.5 points, disappointing the market, which had expected a rise to 51.7. However, the same index in the services sector increased to 56.0, surpassing both the previous value of 55.3 and the forecast of 54.4.

The Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to its highest level since April 2022. The real surprise, however, came from the US GDP data released on Thursday, 25 July. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis' initial estimate, the Gross Domestic Product in Q2 2024 grew by 2.8% on an annualised basis. This followed a 1.4% growth in Q1, exceeded the market expectations of 2.0%, and confirmed the belief that the US economy will not fall into recession. Further details in the report showed that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 2.9% on a quarterly basis, which was lower than the 3.7% growth recorded in the previous quarter, though slightly above the forecast of 2.7%.

The unrest that began on 17 July in the stock market (detailed in the cryptocurrency review) increased demand for the dollar as a safe-haven currency, strengthening it by more than 100 points. However, for the last three days of the trading week, EUR/USD moved within a narrow range of 1.0825-1.0870 in anticipation of next week's events, with the final note sounding at the 1.0855 mark.

As of the evening of 26 July, analysts' forecasts for the near future are as follows: 40% predict a rise in the pair, while 60% expect a decline. In technical analysis, 65% of trend indicators on the D1 chart remain in favour of the euro, while 35% support the dollar. Among oscillators, there is considerable confusion: 25% are in green, 35% are neutral-grey, and 40% are red, with a quarter of them signalling oversold conditions. The nearest support levels for the pair are at 1.0825, followed by 1.0790-1.0805, 1.0725, 1.0665-1.0680, 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0565, 1.0495-1.0515, and 1.0450, 1.0370. Resistance zones are located at 1.0870, 1.0890-1.0910, 1.0945, 1.0980-1.1010, 1.1050, and 1.1100-1.1140.

The upcoming week, as mentioned, promises to be very eventful, interesting, and volatile. On Monday, 29 July, retail sales volumes will be released, followed by preliminary data on GDP and consumer inflation (CPI) in Germany on 30 July. On the same day, GDP data for the Eurozone as a whole will also be published.

The key day will be Wednesday, 31 July. On this day, consumer inflation (CPI) data for the Eurozone will be released, followed by the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve. It is expected that the regulator will again leave the key interest rate unchanged at 5.50%. Therefore, market participants will be particularly interested in the FOMC's Economic Projections Summary and the subsequent press conference of the Fed leadership. The following day, Thursday, 01 August, final data on business activity (PPI) in various sectors of the US economy will be published.

Additionally, throughout the week (30, 31 July, 01 and 02 August), there will be a significant influx of labour market statistics from the United States, including key indicators such as the unemployment rate and the number of new non-farm jobs created (NFP).

USD/JPY: "The Most Intriguing Pair in Forex"


While the dollar has recently been strengthening against the euro and the pound, the situation with the Japanese yen has been quite the opposite. This wasn't just a retreat of the US currency, but rather a panicked flight. On Friday, 19 July, strategists from ING, a major Dutch banking group, described the USD/JPY pair as a "bundle of surprises," retreating to the 155/156 range. A week later, they referred to it as "the most intriguing pair in Forex." This time, the minimum was recorded at 151.93, in the key zone of 151.80-152.00, which coincides with the highs of October 2022 and 2023.

The yen began its resurgence like a Phoenix on 11 and 12 July when the Bank of Japan (BoJ), to support the national currency, purchased an estimated ¥6.0 trillion. On 17 July, USD/JPY came under pressure again due to another currency intervention. Analysts, examining BoJ's accounts, estimated the size of this intervention at approximately ¥3.5 trillion.

Then came a new surge. It is worth noting that on 03 July, USD/JPY reached a high of 161.94, a level not seen in 38 years. Now, in just three weeks, it plummeted by 1,000 (!) points, triggering widespread liquidation of positions across all markets, affecting everything from the yuan to various asset classes, including Japanese stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies.

On Thursday, 25 July, the yen's exchange rate against the dollar rose to its highest level in over two months. This time, the cause seems to be not the currency interventions of the Japanese central bank but the expectation that the interest rate gap between Japan and the US will narrow on 31 July. Swap markets are currently pricing in a 75% probability of a BoJ rate hike on Wednesday, compared to 44% earlier in the week. Moreover, economists at ING believe the BoJ might raise the rate by an unprecedented 15 basis points (bps) for Japan.

They note that "Tokyo's consumer price data showed that core inflation fell to 2.2% year-on-year in July (from 2.3% in June), but the BoJ's preferred measure, core inflation excluding fresh food, rose to 2.2% in July from 2.1% in June." Based on this, ING suggests a 50% chance that inflationary pressure in the services sector will continue to rise, which could lead the BoJ to increase the rate by 15 bps at the upcoming meeting and simultaneously reduce its bond purchase program.

If something like this occurs, macro strategists at State Street Global Markets believe that the resurgence of the Japanese currency could lead to a significant adjustment in global trading strategies in the foreign exchange market, particularly in carry trades. Carry trades involve borrowing in low-yielding currencies, such as the yen, to invest in higher-yielding currencies.

USD/JPY ended the past trading week at 153.75. According to analysts at State Street Global Markets, "the yen rally may continue ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting next week." As for the median forecast by experts for the near term, it is as follows: 20% expect the pair to move south, further strengthening the yen, 30% predict a rebound north, and the remaining 50% have taken a neutral stance. Among oscillators on the D1 chart, 90% favour the Japanese currency, with 20% indicating the pair is in the oversold zone, and the remaining 10% are neutral. Trend indicators show 85% favouring the strengthening of the yen, while 15% support the dollar. The nearest support level is around 151.80-152.00, followed by 149.20-149.50 and 146.50-147.25. The nearest resistance is located in the 154.70-155.20 range, followed by 157.20-157.40, 158.25, 158.75-159.00, 160.20, 160.85, 161.80-162.00, and 162.50.

Apart from the Bank of Japan meeting on Wednesday, 31 July, no other significant events, including the release of important macroeconomic statistics concerning the state of the Japanese economy, are scheduled for the coming days.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Politics Engages with the Digital Market

As early as the mid-19th century, French writer Charles de Montalembert warned, "You may not be interested in politics, but politics is interested in you." This sentiment is vividly illustrated by recent developments in the market for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The past week was disappointing for investors, although the troubles began earlier, on Wednesday, 17 July. On that day, the shares of some of the world's largest semiconductor manufacturers plummeted, causing the stock market to reach its worst condition in several months. This reaction was due to the tensions in US-China trade relations and comments from former (and possibly future) President Donald Trump regarding Taiwan. Shares of several semiconductor companies sharply declined under the weight of geopolitical tension, with some losing over 8% and a giant like Nvidia dropping by 6%. As a result, the S&P 500 Index fell by 1.39%, marking its largest drop since late April, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell by 2.77%, its worst performance since the end of 2022.

However, the troubles for the stock market did not end there. Exactly one week later, on Wednesday, 24 July, the US stock market closed with even greater losses. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices dropped by 3.6% and 2.3%, respectively, after Tesla's Q2 results revealed a profit decline of more than 40% compared to the previous year. Tesla's shares fell by more than 12% in just one day. Alongside Tesla, shares of Alphabet, Visa, Microsoft, Nvidia, and other technology companies also declined. The seven largest IT giants lost $770 billion in market capitalization in one day. This turmoil occurred amidst ongoing issues with Microsoft's global Windows system outage, which affected many sectors.

Naturally, such market dynamics impacted the riskiest of assets—cryptocurrencies. It's worth noting that the prices of both bitcoin and ethereum appeared quite strong at the start of the past week. However, they eventually succumbed to the pressure and also declined. In addition to global geopolitical factors, cryptocurrencies had their own specific reasons for this downturn.

The market was shocked when US President Joe Biden announced on Sunday, 22 July, that he would not seek re-election. This decision sparked a debate about how it might impact the digital assets market. Many analysts and influencers argue that only a victory by Donald Trump could provide a strong bullish impulse to the industry. This view is shared by experts at JPMorgan. Analyst Josh Gilbert stated, "The longer we see Trump leading in the election odds, the more valuable crypto assets will become after his victory." He further explained, "It's hard to imagine Kamala Harris or another Democratic candidate overthrowing Trump's lead in the polls just three months before the end of this election race.".

Trump's Republican ally, Senator Cynthia Lummis, suggested backing the dollar with bitcoin to improve the country's financial system. A similar approach was proposed by Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research. He believes that Trump could announce at the upcoming Bitcoin-2024 conference that he plans to make bitcoin a strategic reserve asset for the US government. Currently, the government holds only 212,800 BTC, worth approximately $15 billion, compared to its gold reserves of around $600 billion. If the government were to double its bitcoin holdings, it would have an impact on the price nearly equivalent to the net inflow effect on spot BTC-ETFs since the beginning of the year.

Bloomberg reports that bitcoin miners and crypto companies, previously hindered from going public in the US, could benefit under a second Donald Trump presidency. The agency cites the opinion of Christian Catalini, founder of the Crypto-economics Lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He believes that "almost everyone in America will benefit if they choose to operate under new rules after they are implemented."

In June, Trump met with miners and expressed his desire for all remaining bitcoin to be "made in the USA." Following Joe Biden's poor performance in debates and an unsuccessful assassination attempt on Trump, the price of bitcoin rose by 10%, while shares of the two largest public miners, Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms, increased by 30%. Cipher Mining's stock prices gained nearly 50%. For the first time since the crypto market crash in 2022, companies in the sector are planning initial public offerings (IPOs). Stablecoin issuer USDC, Circle, filed for an IPO in January with a valuation of $33 billion. Crypto miner Northern Data, which is actively expanding its AI computing division, is considering listing in the US, with a potential valuation of $16 billion. Kraken, the second-largest exchange in the country, is also preparing to go public.

However, all of this is speculative and dependent on future developments. Josh Gilbert, while optimistic about Trump's influence on the cryptocurrency market, cautions that "a lot can happen between now and the election, so nothing is certain." Gary Black, Managing Partner of The Future Fund, echoed this sentiment, warning his 433,000 followers on X that a Trump victory is far from assured. "Those who think Trump/Vance will secure an easy win are getting ahead of themselves," Black wrote.

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of the crypto exchange BitMEX, also expressed skepticism. He believes that voters who support cryptocurrency may lose influence over politicians once the presidential election is over in November 2024. If a regulatory framework for digital assets is not established before the election, the elected president and their administration may shift their focus to other pressing issues. Geopolitical concerns could overshadow discussions about cryptocurrencies, with the president's attention potentially diverted to international conflicts, particularly involving Iran and Russia. Hayes argues, "The capital needed to support laws promoting cryptocurrency development could be redirected towards addressing more urgent foreign policy issues. Therefore, regulatory clarity should be sought now, before the political landscape changes post-election."

BITCOIN: Bullish Flag or Bearish Den?

Experts at JPMorgan note that the current bitcoin price significantly exceeds its mining cost (~$43,000) and appears overvalued compared to its "fair" price adjusted for volatility (~$53,000). According to JPMorgan, the substantial upward deviation from this fair price "limits the potential for long-term growth." However, they have forecasted positive market dynamics in August, attributed to the diminishing negative impact of the sale of coins confiscated by German authorities and the distribution of coins to clients of Gemini and Mt.Gox.

At the beginning of the year, Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, predicted that bitcoin would soon rise to $60,000, and his forecast proved accurate. Now, he believes that the demand for the leading cryptocurrency will continue to grow, potentially reaching $100,000 by the end of the year. "Bitcoin is likely the best asset in terms of growth potential by the end of the year," the financier writes. "Many are expecting it to reach $100,000 by year-end. Is this possible? Quite possibly, because the supply of bitcoin is limited. This means that if demand for BTC increases, so will the price. Bitcoin is not the same as the US dollar, where the Federal Reserve can simply print more."

Green also mentioned that the potential election of Donald Trump as US President could positively impact bitcoin's price.

Analyst and trader known by the nickname RLinda identifies the bullish flag pattern as a key indicator of potential upward movement for BTC. This formation, observed on both daily and weekly charts, is characterized by a sharp upward move followed by a phase of consolidation. RLinda anticipates that a breakout from this consolidation will continue the previous uptrend, potentially targeting around $90,000.

Support and resistance levels play a crucial role in this analysis. Key support levels at $59,300 and $63,800 have shown strong buying interest and stability. The high trading volumes at these levels reinforce the expectation that they will hold during any potential pullbacks. Critical resistance levels are noted at $67,250 and $71,754. Breaking through these resistance points is necessary for BTC to advance towards higher targets. The all-time high (ATH) at $73,743 is particularly significant; a successful breakout above this level could trigger further bullish momentum.

Peter Brandt, the head of Factor LLC, has entered into a debate with RLinda. The legendary trader expresses skepticism that bitcoin will surpass $71,000 and set a new price record. "I try to be as honest as possible in identifying patterns. The current stagnation in the bitcoin market should not be called a flag (it has lasted too long); it represents a descending channel. Anything that lasts longer than 4-6 weeks is not a flag," Brandt wrote.

According to some analysts, the flag pattern observed on the BTC/USD chart suggests an impending bullish rally. However, the descending channel that Brandt refers to indicates a potential decline in the coin's price. This pattern is characterized by lower highs and lows, established after BTC reached its all-time high in March. Based on the chart published by Brandt, he believes that bitcoin's price will not break the resistance line, which lies around $71,000. In this scenario, a bearish trend could begin, with the digital gold potentially dropping to $51,000. The descending channel is slightly widening, suggesting that price volatility may increase over time.

On Thursday, 25 July, the BTC/USD pair dropped to the support zone of $63,200-63,800 and encountered additional support from the 200-day moving average (DMA200). Following this, it reversed direction and started to move upwards. As of the evening of Friday, 26 July, it has nearly recovered its weekly losses and is trading at around $67,500. The total market capitalization of the crypto market has remained relatively stable at $2.42 trillion, compared to $2.43 trillion a week ago. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has risen from 60 to 68 points over the past seven days, remaining in the Greed zone.

ETHEREUM: ETH-ETF – Disappointment Instead of Hope

On 23 July, the long-awaited spot ETFs for Ethereum were launched in the US, providing investors with access to the altcoin through traditional brokerage platforms. On the first day of trading, the turnover reached $1.1 billion, which was 24.4% of the turnover of BTC-ETFs, aligning with optimistic forecasts. However, trading volume isn't the only metric to consider. The net inflow of investments into ETH was significantly lower than that into bitcoin, with $107 million compared to $655 million, respectively, showing a sixfold difference.

The situation worsened as the initial enthusiasm for Ethereum ETFs quickly faded, causing ETH/USD prices to decline sharply, despite the trading volume surpassing $1.0 billion again. The decline was triggered by a significant outflow of funds from a single issuer, Grayscale's Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHE). According to SoSoValue, Grayscale's ETHE lost $484 million on the first trading day and nearly $327 million on the second day, totalling $811 million. In contrast, most other spot ETH-ETFs, including ETHA from BlackRock, ETHW from Bitwise, and FETH from Fidelity, showed growth in inflows. However, these inflows were insufficient to offset the losses from Grayscale's ETHE.

This situation mirrors the experience with Grayscale's GBTC fund in the early weeks following the launch of the bitcoin ETF. Both Grayscale funds were converted from trust to spot ETFs. If the outflow rate from ETHE matches that of GBTC, it could negatively impact all newly established ETH-ETFs.

Moreover, macroeconomic factors contributing to the (hopefully temporary) stock market downturn, the ongoing situation with Mt.Gox, and the lack of staking in ETFs, which deprives the altcoin of the advantage of passive income, also play a role. Additionally, Ethereum's practical applications are increasingly being outperformed by competitors such as Tron and Solana. Experts also remind us of the upcoming US elections, where statements and actions by key political figures could create new opportunities and threats for the market.

Analysts at cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute believe that demand for Ethereum will fall short of expectations, predicting investments in these derivatives will range between $3.2 billion and $4.0 billion in the first 12 months after trading begins. As a result, they expect Ethereum's price to rise to a maximum of $4,300 in 2024.

In contrast, researchers from ASXN offer a more optimistic forecast. They predict that the monthly capital inflow into Ethereum ETFs will range from $800 million to $1.2 billion, implying a total investment of at least $6-7 billion in these funds by the end of the year, significantly exceeding Wintermute's estimate.

Adding to the positive outlook, experts from QCP Capital noted that following the launch of similar BTC-ETFs, bitcoin's price initially fell to $38,000 but then surged to new all-time highs within two months, posting a 90% increase. (However, it is worth noting that the BTC halving may have played a significant role at that time.) The dynamics of Ethereum will become clearer in the near future. Currently, ETH/USD recorded a weekly low of $3,089 and, as of the evening of Friday, 26 July, is trading around $3,200.


NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 22 – 26 July 2024

EUR/USD: FOMC - Are Surprises Expected on 31 July?

This review will begin somewhat unusually, not from the start, but from the end of the past work week. On the evening of 18 July and the morning of the 19th, system administrators and users encountered non-functional servers and PCs running Windows. These systems began displaying the "blue screen of death" (BSOD) and entered an endless reboot loop. This global Microsoft outage affected many countries, including the USA, the UK, Spain, Germany, Turkey, and Australia. Many users in China also experienced the "blue screens of death." Critical computer systems, including those of emergency services, hospitals, police, airports, railways, broadcasters, internet providers, telecom companies, and other organisations such as banks and exchanges, either ceased functioning or started malfunctioning. Consequently, the situation in financial markets at that moment became almost force majeure.

The cause of the outage was identified as a software update from cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike, which conflicted with a new Windows update released simultaneously. Microsoft stated that they had identified the problem and were taking easing steps. However, the duration of this work remains unclear.

Now let’s move on to the more "traditional" news of the week and discuss the chances of monetary policy easing. On Thursday, 18 July, the European Central Bank (ECB) held a meeting, and the day before, Eurostat published consumer inflation (CPI) data. According to the statistical office's final assessment, annual inflation decreased to 2.5% last month from 2.6%, in line with market expectations. The core indicator, Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, remained at 2.9%. It’s worth noting that it had shown a downward trend for nine months (from August 2023 to April 2024), reaching 2.7%. However, in May, it accelerated to 2.9% and remained at that level in June. Another inflation indicator, the Producer Price Index (PPI), registered at -0.2% month-on-month (forecast -0.1%) and -4.2% year-on-year (forecast -4.1%).

Commenting on these figures, ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the regulator had made progress on the path to disinflation, as key inflation indicators are "moving in the right direction." However, she indicated that the ECB would not lower rates in July but did not rule out further steps towards monetary policy easing (QE) at the autumn meetings.

Of course, she knew what she was talking about: on the following day, at its meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept the key interest rate unchanged at 4.25%. At the concluding press conference, Madam Lagarde did not say anything new. She pointed out the weakness of the European economy, noting that the risks to economic growth were leaning towards the downside. Regarding persistently high inflation, Ms. Lagarde reiterated that the ECB's decisions remain data-dependent. While she did not signal an imminent easing of monetary policy, she stated that the decision on the rate at the Governing Council meeting on 12 September remains "open."

The risk-averse market atmosphere and Christine Lagarde's dovish and vague comments prevented EUR/USD from continuing its move towards 1.1000, sending it down to the 1.0900 zone. On Friday morning, ECB Governing Council member and President of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, stated that uncertainty regarding economic growth had increased compared to a few months ago. He added that the market's expectations regarding the ECB's rate forecast were justified. His colleague on the Governing Council, the head of the Central Bank of Lithuania, Gediminas Simkus, also agreed with the market's prediction of two more 25 basis points (bps) rate cuts by the end of 2024.

Such dovish sentiments from European officials could have exerted significant downward pressure on EUR/USD, but similar rhetoric is also coming from their counterparts across the Atlantic. The next FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the Federal Reserve is scheduled for Wednesday, 31 July. According to economists at Goldman Sachs, amid a sharp drop in U.S. inflation from 4.3% to 2.6%, the steepest decline since 1984, and a surge in unemployment from 3.6% to 4.1%, the regulator could begin gradually lowering the rate at this meeting. However, most FOMC officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, assert that the time for easing monetary policy has not yet arrived and that it is necessary to wait for new data. They suggest that any changes could be discussed in September.

Currently, the probability of a rate cut for the dollar in September stands at 96%, while for the euro, it is slightly lower at 80% (considering the 25 bps cut that occurred in June).

So, if nothing happens on 31 July, the Fed rate will remain at 5.50%. Since the ECB rate is 4.25%, this gives a certain advantage to the American currency. If risk aversion continues to dominate the market, it will create additional pressure on EUR/USD.

The pair ended the past week at 1.0883. As of the evening of 19 July, the analysts' forecast for the near term is as follows: 55% of their votes are for the pair's rise, and 65% for its fall. In technical analysis, 80% of trend indicators still favour the euro, while 15% have switched to the dollar. Among oscillators, 85% are green, with 15% turning neutral. The nearest support for the pair is at the 1.0865 zone, followed by 1.0790-1.0805, 1.0725, 1.0665-1.0680, 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0565, 1.0495-1.0515, 1.0450, and 1.0370. Resistance zones are located around 1.0890-1.0915, 1.0945, 1.0980-1.1010, 1.1050, and 1.1100-1.1140.

In the upcoming week, data on retail sales volumes in Germany will be released on Monday, 22 July. Wednesday, 24 July, can be called PPI Day, as a stream of preliminary data on business activity in various sectors of the economies of Germany, the Eurozone, and the USA will be released. On Thursday, we will learn about the state of the American economy in Q2, with GDP figures for this period becoming available. Additionally, the traditional number of initial jobless claims in the United States will be published on this day. The last working day of the week is expected to be very volatile, as on Friday, 26 July, the USA will release the Core CPI inflation figures, which are a key reference for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.

GBP/USD: Bank of England – Are Surprises Expected on 1 August?


Our previous review of GBP/USD was titled "Pound Wins with Labour," and indeed, it has. Over the past week, the pair reached a high of 1.3043, rising to levels last seen a year ago in July 2023. In our view, this surge was driven more by political speculations surrounding the opposition's rise to power and the change of government in the UK than by economic indicators. What this reshuffle will actually deliver remains to be seen and assessed. For now, it is merely an opportunity to profit from new Prime Minister Keir Starmer's promises of a "national renewal."

The current macroeconomic statistics for the United Kingdom, published over the past week, did not provide much cause for optimism. Inflation data released on Wednesday, 17 July, was slightly higher than expected. The headline CPI came in at 2.0% year-on-year (market expectations were 1.9%), and the core CPI reached 3.5% (forecast was 3.4%). Although these figures are close to forecasts, they show that UK inflation remains stubborn and is resisting the Bank of England's (BoE) efforts.

On Friday, 19 July, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published retail sales data for the UK, which also turned out to be disappointing. On a monthly basis, sales fell by -1.2% in June, following a rebound of 2.9% in May. Markets had predicted a decline of only -0.4%. The core retail sales indicator, excluding automotive fuel sales, fell by -1.5% month-on-month, compared to the previous jump of 2.9% and a forecast of -0.5%. The annual volume decreased by -0.2% in June, against a May growth of +1.3%, while the core figure declined by 0.8% year-on-year, compared to +1.2% the previous month.

In light of these data, the British currency began to lose ground, and GBP/USD ended the past week at 1.2912. Specialists at Singapore's UOB Bank believe that "the upward momentum has significantly weakened, and the pair's growth has come to an end." In their opinion, "the pound has likely entered a consolidation phase and will trade between 1.2850 and 1.3020 for some time."

Of course, much will depend on what happens at the BoE meeting on 1 August. The last rate change was a year ago, on 3 August 2023, when it was raised by 25 basis points to 5.25%. Now, according to analysts at Commerzbank, "the next Bank of England decision should be very interesting." They write, "We still lean towards the Bank of England soon making its first rate cut. However, whether this happens in August or September, the key point is that with the persistently high levels of core inflation and inflation in the services sector, a significant rate cut is unlikely. Therefore, in the medium term, the pound sterling should continue to receive good support.".

For now, the median forecast of experts for the near term is as follows: only 20% of analysts expect further strengthening of the pound and a rise in the pair, 60% predict a decline, and the remaining 20% have taken a neutral stance. As for the technical analysis on D1, 75% of trend indicators are green, and 25% are red. Among oscillators, 75% are green, 10% are neutral grey, and only 5% are red.

In the event of further declines, the pair will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2850-1.2860, followed by 1.2780-1.2800, 1.2610-1.2625, 1.2540, 1.2445-1.2465, 1.2405, and 1.2300-1.2330. In the case of a rise, resistance levels are expected at 1.2990-1.3005, followed by 1.3040, 1.3100-1.3140, 1.3265-1.3300, 1.3375, 1.3315, 1.3555-1.3640, and 1.3750.

The release of preliminary business activity (PPI) data for the UK economy on Wednesday, 24 July, stands out among the events of the upcoming week. No other significant macroeconomic data releases are expected in the coming days. The next important event, as previously mentioned, will be the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, 1 August.

USD/JPY: Bank of Japan – Are Surprises Expected on 31 July?

According to strategists from ING, USD/JPY "delivered a bundle of surprises this week, retreating to the 155/156 area." Frankly, the surprise for us was not the yen's strengthening, but these words from ING experts. After all, what's so surprising about it? In our reviews, we have repeatedly warned about possible currency interventions by Japan's financial authorities. And here they are.

Economists estimate that on Thursday and Friday, 11 and 12 July, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) purchased about 6.0 trillion yen to support the national currency. On Wednesday, 17 July, USD/JPY came under pressure again, likely due to another currency intervention. Analysing the BoJ's account movements, economists believe that the intervention on that day amounted to around 3.5 trillion yen. Whether this will have a lasting effect is a big question. Recent years' experience with similar actions shows that the effect is only short-term. This time, specialists from Germany's Commerzbank called the BoJ's interventions "spitting against the wind." Just two days later, on 19 July, after bouncing off a local low of 155.35, the pair surged to 157.85, jumping by 250 points.

"Aside from the disappointing business activity index in the services sector," analysts at Commerzbank observe, "which showed a reduction in activity in May, the foreign trade data was also unconvincing. One of the reasons for this was the weakening of imports, which does not bode well for the domestic economy."

"Bank of Japan must continue to hope that the unfavourable factor related to US interest rates will significantly weaken in the coming months, allowing the yen to stabilize without the need for constant defensive measures," the economists at Commerzbank conclude, likely referring to regular currency interventions as the "defensive measures."

In Tokyo, calls are growing louder that a weak yen has long outlived its usefulness. Investors trading short yen in carry trade strategies also have to contend with unwelcome currency interventions. Moreover, while the Bank of Japan's resources to support the yen are substantial, they are not unlimited. With this in mind, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated last month that the regulator might raise interest rates at the meeting on 31 July. Additionally, the Japanese currency received unexpected support from US presidential candidate Donald Trump, who stated in an interview with Bloomberg that an undervalued yen exerts negative pressure on the US manufacturing sector.

On 31 July, both the Fed and the BoJ will hold meetings. If the actions or accompanying comments from the Bank of Japan are more hawkish, it could provide a new driver for USD/JPY to decline. For instance, ING does not rule out the possibility that the pair could reach 153.00 by the end of the year.

The pair ended the past week at 157.45. Evaluating the near-term prospects, 40% of experts voted for the pair moving south and the yen strengthening, while the remaining 60% took a neutral stance. Among oscillators on the D1 chart, 100% are in favour of the Japanese currency, although 15% are in the oversold zone for the pair. The trend indicators present a more mixed picture: 60% point to the yen's strengthening, while 40% suggest an upward rebound.

The nearest support level is located around 155.35-155.70, followed by 154.50-154.70, 153.60, 153.00, 151.85-152.15, and 150.80-151.00. The nearest resistance is in the 158.25 zone, followed by 158.75, 160.20, 160.85, 161.80-162.00, and 162.50.

In the upcoming week, Friday, 26 July, stands out on the calendar. On this day, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) values for the Tokyo region will be published. No other significant macroeconomic statistics related to the state of the Japanese economy are scheduled for release in the coming days.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Surprise – Market Capitalisation Increases by $370 Billion in a Week

This week, bitcoin surged above $65,000, reaching a high of $67,490. This is the level it traded at on 17 June. Subsequently, the German government began liquidating crypto holdings confiscated by its police, causing BTC/USD to plummet. Over the past few days, Germany sold 50,000 BTC for approximately $3 billion, with the latest tranche of 3,846 BTC sold on 12 July.

Now, the market has digested the negative impact of this sell-off. The price of BTC is recovering amidst renewed capital inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs. According to Coinshares, from 8 to 14 July, about $1.7 billion flowed into all cryptocurrency investment products, including US spot ETFs. Of this, $260 million went to BlackRock's IBIT fund. Since the beginning of 2024, funds have received $17.8 billion, surpassing the total for 2021, which was the peak year for the previous crypto bull cycle. Not only American but also Hong Kong bitcoin ETFs are seeing inflows, attracting a record $37 million on 15 July alone.

Evaluating the inflow into spot ETFs, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink declared on CNBC that bitcoin is a legitimate financial instrument suitable for investment during times of heightened fear. Fink admitted that he "was a proud skeptic, but I’ve studied [bitcoin], and learned about it," and now acknowledges that he was wrong about the asset in the past.

The head of BlackRock emphasized that the first cryptocurrency offers an opportunity to invest "in something that is outside of any country’s control." He noted, "I’m not saying that there aren’t abuses, like in anything else, but it’s a legitimate financial instrument that can potentially provide non-correlated, unconnected types of returns."

The next phase following the sale of 50,000 German BTC will be the return of 142,000 BTC to former clients of the bankrupt crypto exchange Mt. Gox, which collapsed 10 years ago. Concerns arise from the fact that bitcoin has increased in value 130-fold during this time, and naturally, many recipients may want to convert their tokens to fiat immediately. However, not all Mt. Gox coins will be distributed to creditors in July. According to Arkham Intelligence, the first tranche of 45,000 BTC will be distributed to creditors through the Kraken exchange in the next one to two weeks. Overall, the pressure from Mt. Gox sales is not expected to exceed 75,000 coins by the end of the year.

Thanks to this information, panic among market participants has subsided. However, some analysts still believe that these payouts could push bitcoin's price down to $50,000. CoinShares predicts that if all 45,000 BTC are sold within 24 hours, the price could drop by 19% from current levels. Well-known analyst Alex Krüger estimates that the maximum price drop will not exceed 10%.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju argues that fears about seller pressure are overestimated and will not disrupt the ongoing bull rally. He suggests that if the same volume is released over 30 days, the market will hardly notice it. Analysts at CoinMetrics also believe that the market should "absorb" the Mt. Gox creditors liquidating their assets if the sales are spread out over time, taking into account the current market depth and trading volumes.

At present, it is difficult to predict how aggressively former Mt. Gox clients will dispose of their unexpected digital windfall. However, most influencers agree that even if there is a negative effect, it will be short-lived. Katie Stockton, managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, confirmed in a CNBC interview that the long-term upward trend remains intact, and that bitcoin should be viewed as a long-term investment with significant growth potential.

Michael Saylor, co-founder and former CEO of MicroStrategy, stated that a decline in the value of the first cryptocurrency will not affect its attractiveness to investors. As evidence, he presented a table comparing the price dynamics of various asset classes over several years, including bitcoin, gold, emerging market stocks, emerging market bonds, and treasury bonds. The best performers were bitcoin, young company stocks (U.S. Growth index), and the Nasdaq 100 index. From 2011 to 2024, bitcoin's value increased by 18,881%, while the Nasdaq 100 index grew by 931% and gold by 59%. Michael Saylor has previously predicted that bitcoin could reach $10 million in the future.

Analyst Benjamin Cowen also conducted a historical analysis. He examined the key parameter for investors: bitcoin's dominance level (percentage of the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies). Cowen notes a significant trend: since the end of 2022, the dominance of the flagship cryptocurrency has been steadily increasing. From 38% in late November 2022, it rose to 54% by July 2024. Cowen believes that stricter government control over spending in the U.S. favours bitcoin compared to riskier altcoins. While potential approval of an ETH-ETF might provide Ethereum with short-term growth, bitcoin will continue to increase its share of the overall crypto market capitalization, potentially reaching 60% by December 2024.

The highly anticipated launch of spot Ethereum ETFs is undoubtedly expected to be a significant event for the industry. Bloomberg's senior exchange analyst Eric Balchunas reported that these trades will begin in the US on 23 July. "The SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) finally approached issuers on Wednesday [17 July], requesting them to return final [forms] S-1 and then request effectiveness [approval] for a Tuesday, 23 July launch," the expert wrote. He did caution, however, that this is contingent upon the absence of any "last-minute unforeseen issues." Balchunas' information was confirmed by sources at two potential issuers of the ETH-ETFs.

Peter Brandt, head of Factor LLC, has provided a forecast for Ethereum ahead of the launch of ETH-ETF trading. Previously, this legendary trader and analyst, known for accurately predicting the crypto winter of 2018 and many other market movements, has often criticized ETH. However, now he believes this altcoin is on the brink of significant growth. Brandt suggests that Ethereum has found support near the lower boundary of a rectangle formation, which took over four months to develop, and its next target will be levels above $5,600.

This positive outlook is supported by the trader known as Yoddha. He noted that the prolonged consolidation could provide the main altcoin with the strength needed for active growth. According to his calculations, Ethereum has the potential to move to levels above $10,000. Yoddha believes the peak growth for Ethereum will be recorded in 2025. As for the current all-time high (ATH), it was recorded on 7 November 2021, at $4,856.

Despite Ethereum's prospects, the leader in growth over the past few days has been Ripple (XRP). From 5 to 17 July, the coin saw an increase of approximately 47%. The catalyst for this surge was the traditional derivatives trading centers – CME and CF Benchmarks – announcing indices and reference rates for Ripple, which could facilitate institutional acceptance of this token.

In such a situation, the decision of OpenAI's ChatGPT-4o artificial intelligence, which was tasked with selecting three digital assets worth buying in 2024 for long-term investment, was surprising. The AI was guided by key factors such as "price dynamics over time, technological innovations, market adoption, and potential for future growth." Based on these criteria, ChatGPT created a relatively conservative long-term portfolio that included Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and not Ripple, but Polkadot (DOT).

According to the AI, Bitcoin is a worthy candidate due to its price dynamics, technological progress, relatively broad adoption, and certain recognition by regulators. Ethereum was chosen for its technological innovations, particularly its transition to proof-of-stake (PoS), the growth of its ecosystem, and the network effects arising from the blockchain's popularity. Polkadot made it into the top three based on the network's interoperability and scalability, a strong development team, and a dedicated community. The AI model highlighted Polkadot's active work on parachain technology, emphasizing its high utility.

As of the evening of Friday, 18 July, BTC/USD is trading at $66,940, ETH/USD is around $3,505, and XRP/USD is at 0.5745. The total crypto market capitalization stands at $2.43 trillion, up from $2.06 trillion a week ago. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has surged from 29 to 60 points over the past 7 days, moving from the Fear zone to the Greed zone.


NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Gold as an Investment: Detailed Analysis and Price Forecasts for 2025-2050

Since ancient times, gold has remained a crucial element of global economies. Its unique properties have made it not only valuable as jewellery but also a reliable means of preserving wealth. Today, this metal constitutes a significant part of both investor portfolios and central bank reserves. This review analyses the dynamics and reasons for changes in the price of gold and presents forecasts from leading banks and experts regarding the XAU/USD pair in the medium- and long-term perspectives.


Gold Price: From Ancient Times to the 20th Century

Ancient Times. Gold mining and usage began in the 4th millennium BC. One of the first civilizations to actively use this metal was ancient Egypt, where it was mined from around 2000 BC. The importance of gold in ancient Egypt is hard to overestimate – it was considered "the flesh of the gods" and used in all aspects of life, from religious ceremonies to burial rites, in making vessels and statuettes, jewellery, and home decor, as well as a means of payment. Gold’s resistance to corrosion made it a symbol of immortality and strength.

Exact data on the value of gold in ancient civilizations is hard to find, but it is known to have been one of the most valuable commodities, used not only for trade but also for wealth storage. For example, in Babylon in 1600 BC, one talent of gold (about 30.3 kg) was worth approximately 10 talents of silver (about 303 kg).

In the late 8th century BC, in Asia Minor, gold was first used as coinage. The first pure gold coins with stamped images are attributed to the Lydian King Croesus. They were of irregular shape and often minted only on one side.

Antiquity. In antiquity, gold continued to play a key role in the economy and culture. The Greeks mined gold in various places, including the region of Troy, where, according to myth, the deposit was a gift from the god Zeus. For the ancient Greeks, gold symbolized purity and nobility and was used to create unique artworks and jewellery.

In classical Athens (5th century BC), one gold drachma was worth about 12 silver drachmas. During the time of Alexander the Great (4th century BC) and the subsequent Hellenistic kingdoms, the gold-to-silver ratio varied but generally stayed within the range of 1:10 to 1:12. (Interestingly, this ratio has now grown to about 1:80). Alexander the Great issued gold staters weighing about 8.6 grams, highly valued coins often used for large international transactions.

Middle Ages. In the Middle Ages, gold remained a vital element of the economy. In the Byzantine Empire, the solidus gold coin, weighing 4.5 grams, was used for international trade. In medieval Europe, gold also played a significant role, especially after the discovery of large gold deposits in Africa. In 1252, the gold florin was introduced in Florence and used throughout Europe. In England, the gold sovereign appeared in 1489.

What could one buy with such a coin? In England in the 11th-12th centuries, a sovereign could purchase a small piece of land about one acre or a part of a farm. In the 13th century, a gold coin could buy several heads of cattle, such as two cows or several sheep.

Gold was also used to acquire weapons or armour. For example, a good quality sword might cost about one coin. One gold coin could also pay for a skilled craftsman’s work for several months. For instance, such money could order the construction or repair of a house. Additionally, it could buy a large amount of food, such as a year's supply of bread for a family.

Modern Times. During the Age of Exploration, gold came to the forefront again. After the discovery of America, Spanish conquistadors brought vast quantities of gold to Europe. In the 17th-18th centuries, gold became the basis for the formation of monetary systems in Europe. By 1800, the price of one troy ounce of gold (31.1 grams) in Britain was about £4.25. Therefore, one troy ounce of this metal could buy a small plot of land in some rural areas or pay rent for housing for 8 months. It could also order the tailoring of four men's suits or pay for elementary school education for several years.

19th Century. The 19th century was marked by the Gold Rush, especially in California and Australia. This led to a significant increase in gold production and, consequently, a relative decrease in its price. In 1870, the price of one troy ounce of gold was about $20. Starting in 1879, the US monetary system was based on the so-called "gold standard," which tied the amount of paper money to the country’s gold reserves, and $20 could always be exchanged for a troy ounce of this precious metal. This price level remained until the early 20th century.

20th Century: $20 – $850 – $250

1934. It had been 55 years since the adoption of the "gold standard" when, during the Great Depression, US President Franklin D. Roosevelt enacted the "Gold Reserve Act." According to this document, private ownership of gold was declared illegal, and all precious metals had to be sold to the US Treasury. A year later, after all the gold had been transferred from private ownership to the state, Roosevelt raised its price by 70% to $35 per troy ounce, allowing him to print the corresponding amount of paper money.

For the next four decades, gold prices remained stable at around $35 until 1971, when another US President, Richard Nixon, decided to abandon the "gold standard" altogether, delinking the dollar from gold. This decision can be considered a turning point in the history of the modern world economy. Gold ceased to be money and began to be traded on the open market at a floating exchange rate. This completely freed the US government’s hands, allowing it to print infinite amounts of fiat currency, and the price of precious metals to grow exponentially.

By the end of 1973, the price of precious metals had already reached $97 per ounce and continued to rise amid economic instability and inflation, reaching $161 in 1975 and $307 in 1979. Just a year later, amid high inflation and political instability (including the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Iranian revolution), XAU/USD reached a record level of $850 .

1982. After reaching this peak, there was a rollback to $376 in 1982, linked to rising interest rates in the US and stabilizing economic conditions. Political and economic changes in the world, such as the end of the Cold War and the development of global financial markets, stabilized the gold market, and until the mid-1990s, XAU/USD traded in the range of $350-$400. By 1999, the price had fallen to $252 per ounce, due to rising stock markets, low inflation, and decreased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

First Quarter of the 21st Century: From $280 to $2450

2000s. At the beginning of the 2000s, the price of gold was about $280 per troy ounce. However, it began to rise following the dot-com bubble burst and sharply increased during the global financial crisis, reaching $869 in 2008. This growth was driven by economic instability, falling stock markets, declining confidence in the dollar, and increased demand for gold from investors seeking safe-haven assets. By the end of 2010, the gold price continued to rise, reaching $1421. In September 2011, it reached a record level of $1900 per ounce. This rise was due to the European debt crisis and concerns about global economic instability. However, the dollar began to strengthen, inflation expectations fell, and stock markets rose, leading XAU/USD to turn south, falling to $1060 by the end of 2015.

After this, another reversal occurred, and the pair headed north again. In 2020, the price reached a new record level of $2067. The primary driver here was the COVID-19 pandemic, which prompted massive monetary stimulus measures (QE) by governments and central banks, primarily the US Federal Reserve. The historical maximum to date was reached in May 2024 at $2450, aided by geopolitical instability in the Middle East, Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, ECB, and other leading central banks.

Why Gold?

Mid-2024. Before moving on to gold price forecasts, let's answer the question: what exactly makes this yellow metal valuable?

Firstly, note its physical and chemical properties. Gold is chemically inert, resistant to corrosion, and does not rust or tarnish over time, making it an ideal asset for value storage. It has an attractive appearance and lustre that does not fade over time, making it popular for making jewellery and luxury items. It is also relatively rare in the Earth’s crust. Limited availability makes it valuable since demand always exceeds supply.

Next, follow the economic factors, which are perhaps more important in the modern world. Gold is traditionally used as a means of preserving capital. We have already mentioned that in times of economic instability and geopolitical tension, investors often turn to gold to protect their savings from depreciation. Naturally, in such a situation, its price is influenced by the level of inflation and related monetary policies of central banks, including interest rate changes and quantitative easing (QE) or tightening (QT) programmes.

Investors use gold to diversify their portfolios and reduce risks. Gold has high liquidity, allowing it to be quickly and easily converted into cash or goods and services worldwide. This makes it attractive not only for investors but also for central banks, which hold significant gold reserves as part of their international reserves. This helps them maintain national currency stability and serves as a guarantee in case of financial crises. For example, the Federal Reserve holds nearly 70% of its foreign reserves in gold.

Forecasts for the Second Half of 2024 and 2025

Gold price forecasts for the end of 2024 and 2025 vary, but most analysts from leading global banks and agencies agree that its price will rise. UBS strategists predict an increase to $2500 per ounce. J.P. Morgan also targets $2500 in the medium term, provided the Federal Reserve cuts rates and economic instability persists.

Goldman Sachs has revised its forecasts and expects the price to reach $2700 per ounce in 2025. Bank of America economists initially forecasted $2400 for 2024 but also revised their forecast upwards to $3000 by 2025. The primary condition for growth, according to the bank, is the start of active rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, which will attract investors to gold as a safe-haven asset.

Citi specialists agree with this figure. "The most likely scenario in which an ounce of gold rises to $3000," they write in an analytical note, "besides the Federal Reserve rate cut, is the rapid acceleration of the current but slow trend – the de-dollarization of central banks in developing economies, which will undermine confidence in the US dollar."

Rosenberg Research analysts also mention a figure of $3000. The consulting agency Yardeni Research does not rule out that due to a possible new wave of inflation, XAU/USD could rise to $3500 by the end of next year. The super-bullish forecast was given by TheDailyGold Premium magazine editor Jordan Roy-Byrne. Based on the "Cup and Handle" model, he stated that a breakout is coming, and with it a new cyclical bull market. "The current measured target for gold," writes Roy-Byrne, "is $3000, and its logarithmic target is somewhere between $3745 and $4080." 

Forecasts to 2050

Most major banks and financial data providers typically offer only short- and medium-term forecasts. The main reason is that markets can be very volatile, and small changes in supply or demand factors and external events can lead to unexpected price fluctuations, casting doubt on prediction accuracy.

Despite this, there are different scenarios and long-term price forecasts for gold for 2030-50. Economist Charlie Morris, in his work "Rational Case for Gold by 2030," forecasts a price of $7000 per ounce. Another specialist, David Harper, predicted that the price of gold could reach $6800 by 2040. This scenario, according to Harper, describes reasonable growth with a return rate of about 7.2% per year.

Regarding a 25-year horizon, Josep Peñuelas, a research professor at the Centre for Ecological Research in Barcelona, warned that by 2050, the world might run out of key metals, including gold. However, other futurist theories are more optimistic. According to renowned investor and writer Robert Kiyosaki, gold has existed since time immemorial and, being "God’s money," is likely to become the primary form of currency in the future. In his book "Fake," Kiyosaki argues that ultimately, gold, along with bitcoins, could destroy paper currencies and become the foundation of the global financial system.


NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 08 – 12 July 2024

EUR/USD: The US is Not Very Good, Europe is Not Very Bad


On Friday, June 5, the Dollar Index (DXY) hit a three-week low, while the euro showed its largest weekly gain against the dollar in a year. This was due to the US not performing as well as expected and Europe not faring as poorly.

Disappointing private sector employment statistics from ADP (150K versus the forecasted 163K and previous 157K) and an increase in repeated jobless claims (238K versus 234K) for the ninth consecutive week indicate a cooling labour market. The slowdown in business activity in the service sector, the fastest in four years, and the drop in the ISM Index from 53.8 to 48.8 points, below the threshold of 50.00, suggest that the US economy is not as smooth as the Federal Reserve (Fed) would like.

The FOMC's June meeting minutes mentioned that monetary policy should be ready to respond to economic issues, a sentiment echoed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Consequently, this gloomy macroeconomic data increased the likelihood of a monetary expansion cycle and interest rate cuts in September from 63% to 73%. Derivatives are almost certain that there will be two 25 basis point (bp) cuts in 2024, lowering the rate from 5.50% to 5.00%. This caused US Treasury yields and the DXY to drop, while stock indices and EUR/USD rose. The S&P500 set its 33rd record this year, and EUR/USD reached a high of 1.0842 on July 5.

The euro was also bolstered by the situation in France. The left-wing "New People's Front" (NFP) and the government bloc "Together for the Republic" (Ensemble) joined forces to prevent the right-wing from gaining power, which might end successfully. If the right-wing "National Rally" (RN) does not gain an absolute majority in the new parliament after the second round of elections, there will be no confrontation with the EU or Frexit (analogy with British Brexit).

Polls indicate the right-wing will secure 190 to 250 out of 577 seats, while 289 are needed for an absolute majority. The second round of elections will be held on Sunday, July 7, which might cause gaps in euro pairs on Monday.

Last week, the euro was also supported by the European Central Bank, or rather, by the minutes of its June Governing Council meeting. On one hand, 25 out of 26 Council members voted for a 25 basis point rate cut. However, this decision was made with several caveats concerning still high wage growth rates and the persistence of inflation, which resists and does not want to drop to the target level of 2.0%.

Preliminary June data showed that the CPI decreased only by 0.1% from 2.6% to 2.5%, and the Core CPI remained at 2.9% (y/y), above the consensus forecast of 2.8%. ECB officials fear the CPI might rise due to geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, raw material and energy price increases, and other factors. This almost rules out a rate cut at the ECB Governing Council meeting on July 18 and suggests only one act of monetary expansion in the second half of 2024.

Key US labour market data released at the end of the week on Friday, July 5, could change the dollar's position and the EUR/USD dynamics. According to the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), non-farm payrolls (NFP) increased by 206K in June, lower than May's 218K but above the forecast of 190K. Other data showed the unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.1%, and wage inflation dropped from 4.1% to 3.9% (y/y).

After the publication of this data, EUR/USD ended the week at 1.0839. However, this does not mean it will start the next week at this level. Traders are closely watching the French elections and the political situation related to the November US presidential elections. Biden's interview with ABC News at 00:00 GMT on Saturday, July 6, when markets are closed, could also impact dollar pairs.

As of the evening of July 5, analysts' forecasts for the near future are as follows: 55% predict the pair will rise, 45% foresee a fall. In technical analysis, all trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are in favour of the euro, although a quarter indicate the pair is overbought. The nearest support is in the 10790-10805 zone, followed by 1.0725, 1.0665-1.0680, 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0565, 1.0495-1.0515, 1.0450, and 1.0370. Resistance zones are at 1.0890-1.0915, 1.0945, 1.0980-1.1010, 1.1050, and 1.1100-1.1140.

Notable events in the upcoming week include Jerome Powell's testimony in the US Congress on July 9 and 10, updated CPI data for Germany and the US on Thursday, July 11, and US initial jobless claims. The week will end with Germany's retail sales data and the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

GBP/USD: The Pound Gained with the Labour Party

The pound sterling and British stocks rose after the opposition centre-left Labour Party secured a convincing victory in the parliamentary elections. The British currency achieved a weekly gain of 1% – the best in the last seven weeks.

According to Reuters, the Labour Party won 337 out of 650 seats, indicating a majority in the House of Commons. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak conceded defeat and congratulated his opponents on their victory. In turn, Labour Party leader and Prime Minister-elect Keir Starmer declared that from today "we are embarking on a mission of national renewal and starting to rebuild our country." Starmer will replace Sunak as Prime Minister, ending 14 years of Conservative rule.

The markets responded positively to the national election results. The pound became the only component of the DXY to strengthen (by 0.2%) this year. "Apart from the weakening of the dollar," commented Singapore's DBS Bank, "the markets warmly welcomed the victory of the opposition Labour Party. This will put an end to years of political and economic uncertainty under Conservative leadership following the Brexit referendum in 2016. Labour leader Keir Starmer, while he is alive, has ruled out the possibility of the UK joining three blocs – the EU, the single market, and the customs union. […] However, Labour may seek more favourable trade agreements by aligning with EU rules in specific sectors such as agriculture, food, and chemicals."

"As for monetary policy," continued DBS strategists, "the OIS market assesses a 62.4% probability of the Bank of England (BoE) cutting the rate by 25 basis points to 5.0% at the meeting on August 1." However, DBS believes this will not significantly harm the pound, provided that expectations for a Fed rate cut in September increase.

The final note of the five-day period saw the GBP/USD pair at 1.2814. Specialists from another Singaporean bank, UOB, believe the likelihood of the pound strengthening has increased. They note that a strong resistance level is in the area of last month's high of 1.2860. The median forecast for the near term is as follows: 35% of analysts expect further pound strengthening and pair growth, 50% foresee a decline, and the remaining 15% are neutral. As for technical analysis on D1, 100% of trend indicators are green. Among the oscillators, 90% are green, a third of which are in the overbought zone, and the remaining 10% are neutral grey. In case of further decline, the pair will find support levels and zones at 1.2735-1.2750, 1.2680, 1.2655, 1.2610-1.2625, 1.2540, 1.2445-1.2465, 1.2405, and 1.2300-1.2330. In case of growth, the pair will meet resistance at levels 1.2850-1.2860, followed by 1.2895, 1.2965-1.2995, 1.3040, and 1.3130-1.3140.

Among the events of the coming week, the publication of UK GDP data for May on Thursday, July 11, stands out. The next important event, as previously mentioned, will be the publication of a fresh inflation report in the United Kingdom on July 17.

USD/JPY: Back to 1986

The yen lost over 12% against the dollar this year due to the large interest rate differential between Japan and the US. It continued to lose ground in the first half of the past week, reaching a new 38-year high of 161.94 on Wednesday, July 3, but failed to break above 162.00 due to disappointing US statistics.

Until Friday, Japanese officials largely refrained from discussing possible interventions. According to several experts, they may fear the wrath of the United States following sharp remarks from American authorities regarding recent similar actions. However, on July 5, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki once again stated that the authorities would closely monitor the state of the stock and currency markets. A week earlier, he expressed that he was "deeply concerned about excessive and unilateral movements in the forex market" and hoped that "confidence in the Japanese currency remains."

OCBC Bank economists noted that "USD/JPY will follow US Treasury yields and the dollar. A reversal in USD and a Fed rate cut or a BoJ signal to normalize (rate hike or accelerated balance sheet reduction) is needed for a downward reversal, none of which seem to be happening." OCBC concluded that the path of least resistance for USD/JPY might still be upward unless there is intervention. "Intervention, at best, is a tool to slow the yen's depreciation, not to reverse the trend," they added.

The week ended with USD/JPY at 160.78. UOB Group analysts noted that the pair's upward momentum is starting to weaken, but only a break below 160.45 would indicate that the USD will not strengthen further. If the pair breaks above 162.00, the next level to watch is 163.00. OCBC economists see further targets for USD/JPY at 164.00 and 164.90, with support at 160.20, 158.10 (21 DMA), and 156.90 (50 DMA).

Many traders remain cautious, fearing another intervention by Japanese authorities. 65% of analysts expect another intervention and a southward movement of the pair, while the remaining 35% point north. Among trend indicators on D1, only 10% point south, with the rest looking north. Oscillator indicators are 25% red and 75% green.

No significant macroeconomic data is expected for Japan in the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Back to February 26

The last five days of June gave investors hope that the black streak was over. But alas! On the first day of July, the bulls' strength waned, and BTC/USD turned south again, easily breaking support around $60,000 and plummeting to a local bottom at $53,543, a level last seen on February 26.

A long time ago, in 1961, the 35th President of the United States, John Fitzgerald Kennedy, uttered a phrase that became famous: "Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan." So, the current victory of the bears over the bulls also has many "fathers," although not a thousand. Several factors influenced the decline of the crypto market.

Firstly, investor disappointment that bitcoin failed to reach a new all-time high (ATH) after the April halving. Due to the halving of their reward, BTC miners were forced to sell a significant amount of their coins to cover operational costs. It was reported that their reserves reached a 14-year low. Downward pressure was also exerted by the German government, which began selling a large amount of bitcoin (about 50,000 BTC) seized by the police from a pirate site in January.

Sales intensified sharply after the announcement on June 24 that creditor payments from the bankrupt crypto exchange Mount Gox (Mt.Gox) would start in early July. These assets had been blocked, and now 20,000 former clients are to receive a total of 162,100 BTC (about $9 billion). According to a K33 study, the anticipation of this event put significant pressure on digital asset prices. Traders assumed that most recipients would be inclined to sell their tokens, given that BTC's price had risen exponentially since 1994. Real panic ensued when test transactions were observed on wallets associated with Mt.Gox.

According to Quinn Thompson, CEO of the crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, the market has largely accounted for the German government's actions and Mt.Gox creditor payments. Thus, this negative pressure is expected to gradually weaken, as noted by Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee.

Another disappointment was the anticipated launch of Ethereum exchange spot ETFs last week, which did not materialise. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejected the applicants' S-1 form submissions, requesting additional adjustments by July 8. Therefore, approval may occur closer to mid-month or later, if at all. As a result, investors withdrew a record $119 million over the past two weeks, the highest since August 2022, making Ethereum an outsider in the crypto market.

Overall, global cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds recorded a third consecutive week of outflows, losing a total of $1.2 billion in investments. Most of the losses came from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, with about half of the inflows coming from retail investors, who typically lack long-term planning and patience. Many whales also began to take profits due to the absence of positive signals. The stock market also played against digital assets. In the last two months, both the S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite consistently hit record highs, prompting some investors to shift their funds from cryptocurrencies to stocks.

Despite the current gloomy outlook, many experts remain cautiously optimistic about the future. MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe believes an upward reversal will occur with the upcoming listing of Ethereum ETFs. Another expert, Ali Martinez, noted that in previous years, when June ended in a downtrend, there was a sharp rise the following month: historically, bitcoin gained an average of 7.42%. However, he believes July may be more challenging than usual due to the shock from Germany's bitcoin sales and Mt.Gox creditor payments.

Santiment analysts observed that both bullish and bearish sentiments in X, Reddit, Telegram, 4Chan, and BitcoinTalk networks are waning, indicating traders' loss of interest in trading. "We interpret this as fear and apathy among the crowd – a potential bottom signal," Santiment noted. "At the same time, there is increased talk about holding cryptocurrencies, which could be a positive sign."

"Bears still control the situation, but bitcoin is heavily oversold," said analyst Willy Woo. He believes markets will correct the oversold condition, but at this stage, it does not indicate fundamental demand growth or guarantee a sustained bullish trend. Woo emphasized that a breakout of the resistance line on the daily bitcoin RSI chart will create a "technical but not fundamental recovery."

According to Blockware Intelligence experts, bitcoin needs to overcome the $65,000 level to develop a rebound. This level corresponds to the acquisition cost for short-term investors. Currently, the digital gold prices have dropped below the total cost of short-term holders for the first time since August 2023. "Last summer, under similar circumstances, the price remained in a sideways trend for another two months before breaking out again," added Blockware Intelligence specialists.

Pratik Kala, a DigitalX analyst, predicts consolidation and low volatility for the crypto market in July. He stated, "Bitcoin is looking for the next major catalyst to move up. It's not visible on the horizon yet, but things will change as the US elections approach." Quinn Thompson from Lekker Capital also believes that the current "overly bearish" sentiments will gradually shift. He sees the US presidential elections as a growth catalyst for the crypto market, along with increased liquidity from the Fed and the launch of spot ETH ETFs. Another reason for growth could be the increased profitability of mining. Thompson predicts bitcoin will reach $100,000 and Ethereum $7,000 by November.

Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz shares Thompson's view, recently forecasting bitcoin will hit $100,000 by the end of 2024. Tom Lee of Fundstrat expects an even higher figure of $150,000.

As of writing this outlook on the evening of Friday, July 5, BTC/USD is trading at $56,400 and ETH/USD at $2,975. The total crypto market capitalization is $2.06 trillion ($2.24 trillion a week ago). The market lost about $625 billion over the last 30 days. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped from 47 to 29 points in 7 days, moving from the Neutral zone to the Fear zone.


NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

June Results: Gold Brings Astronomical Profits to NordFX's Top 3 Traders

The brokerage firm NordFX has summarised the trading performance of its clients for June 2024. Additionally, the social trading services PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the income generated by the company's IB partners, have been evaluated.

- The leader of the month is a trader from South Asia, account No. 1773XXX, with a profit of USD 82,933. This impressive "astronomical" result was achieved through trades in gold (XAU/USD), a favourite instrument among NordFX's most successful traders.
- In second place, with a result of USD 59,135, is another representative from South Asia, account No. 1771XXX, who also achieved success through the "golden" pair XAU/USD.
- A trader from West Asia, account No. 1774XXX, secured third place with earnings of USD 58,653 from gold transactions in June.

In NordFX's passive investment services, the following developments were noted:

- In the PAMM service, several startups caught attention due to their activity. AI Scalping Master High Risk showed a 100% profit in exactly 100 days, and Zenix 786 achieved a 72% profit in 99 days. These results are impressive, but the maximum drawdown for both managers was also significant – 46% and 36%, respectively. Therefore, the "High Risk" note in the name of the first account is not just words but a warning that trading in financial markets is risky. Investors must exercise maximum caution when entrusting money to any manager.

- In CopyTrading, we continue to monitor the performance of the signal yahmat-forex, which recently celebrated its anniversary. Over 372 days, the provider of this signal managed to show a yield of 467% with a maximum drawdown of 47%. Among startups, the signal AA Strategy is notable, with a profit of 299% in just two months, though it also had a drawdown of more than 63%.

When considering subscribing to a signal, besides profit and drawdown, we advise paying attention to the manager's own capital. For example, in the case of AA Strategy, it is only USD 142. Now imagine you subscribe to this signal with the same lot (1:1), but your starting capital is not USD 142 but USD 425, which is three times more. In this case, your drawdown would be only 21% of the deposit, though the profit would also decrease from 299% to approximately 100%. However, doubling your capital in just two months is still quite impressive.

It should be noted here that the purpose of this explanation is not to convince you to subscribe to this particular signal but to remind you of the basic rules of money management and ways to reduce financial risks.

Among NordFX's IB partners, the top three are as follows:
- The first place is held by a partner from West Asia, account No. 1645XXX, who was credited with a reward of USD 34,454 in June;
- In second place is a partner from South Asia, account No. 1565XXX, who received a commission of USD 5,962;
- Completing the top three is another representative from South Asia, account No. 1576XXX, who earned USD 5,429 for the month.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 01 – 05 July 2024

EUR/USD: Inflation in the US – Everything is Going According to Plan

Last week, specifically on Thursday, 27 June, the dollar received support from positive macroeconomic data from the US. The Department of Commerce reported that according to the final estimate, the US GDP grew by 1.4% in Q1, against the forecast of 1.3%. (According to the current Fed forecast, the country's real GDP will expand by 2.1% in 2024). Labour market statistics were also optimistic – the number of initial jobless claims in the US amounted to 233K, lower than both the forecast of 236K and the previous figure of 239K. Durable goods orders did not disappoint either, rising by 0.1% in May against the forecast of a decline of -0.1%. Against this backdrop, the DXY dollar index rose to 106.10, approaching April highs, and EUR/USD dropped to 1.0685.

However, the main events of the week were scheduled for Friday, 28 June, the last trading day of Q2. It is worth noting that the cash flows typical for the end of the quarter and the adjustment of trading positions at this time usually increase market volatility and can even cause chaotic movements in major currency pairs. Additionally, intrigue was added by the fact that on this day, the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the USA was to publish data on the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index for May. This indicator is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and therefore influences decisions regarding interest rate changes.

According to preliminary estimates, the markets expected that the core index would decrease from 2.8% to 2.6% year-on-year and from 0.3% to 0.1% month-on-month. If this forecast were to come true, it would have strengthened expectations of an imminent easing of the American regulator's monetary policy. On the eve of the publication, market participants predicted that the first Fed rate cut would occur in September, with another one in November or December.

However, there was also an alternative scenario. On Wednesday, 26 June, Fed Board member Michelle Bowman stated that if the disinflation process in the US stalls, the regulator would have no choice but to resume tightening policy (QT).

The actual figures matched the forecasts exactly – core PCE decreased from 2.8% to 2.6% year-on-year and from 0.3% to 0.1% month-on-month. It is obvious that this result was already priced in, so it did not produce a "wow" effect on market participants, and after a brief dip, DXY returned to current levels.

The dollar was also supported by the President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Mary Daly, who commented on the PCE data: "The Fed has not yet made a decision, but the PCE data is good news. [...] There is evidence that policy is sufficiently tight. [...] It takes more time for the policy to work. [...] If inflation remains stable or decreases slowly, rates will have to be raised longer."

As for the European Central Bank (ECB), unlike its overseas counterpart, it has already started the easing process (QE). At its meeting on 06 June, it already lowered the euro rate by 25 basis points (b.p.) to 4.25%. And as ECB representative Olli Rehn stated on 26 June, the market forecast for two more rate cuts in 2024 seems "reasonable". These words from Rehn signalled tolerance towards inflation spikes in the Eurozone, which is a negative factor for the common European currency.

The final point of the week, month, and quarter was set by the EUR/USD pair at 1.0713. The analyst forecast for the near future as of the evening of 28 June is as follows: 65% of expert votes were given for the pair's decline, 20% for its growth, and another 15% remained neutral. In technical analysis, 80% of trend indicators on D1 sided with the dollar and turned red, while 20% preferred the euro. Among oscillators, 75% were on the dollar's side, with the remaining 25% taking a neutral position. The nearest support for the pair is located in the zone of 1.0665-1.0670, followed by 1.0600-1.0615, 1.0565, 1.0495-1.0515, 1.0450, and 1.0370. Resistance zones are found around 1.0740-1.0760, then 1.0815, 1.0850, 1.0890-1.0915, 1.0945, 1.0980-1.1010, 1.1050, and 1.1100-1.1140.

The upcoming week will be rich in macroeconomic statistics. On Monday, 01 July and Tuesday, 02 July, preliminary data on such an important indicator as the consumer price index (CPI) in Germany and the Eurozone will be released, respectively. Speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are also scheduled for 01 and 02 July. In addition, on Monday and Wednesday, business activity indicators (PMI) in various sectors of the US economy will be known. But this is not the end of the flow of important information. Late in the evening of 03 July, the minutes of the last FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the Fed will be published. On Wednesday, 03 July, and Friday, 05 July, we will be flooded with statistics from the US labour market, including the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP). Traders should also keep in mind that 03 July is a short day in the US, and 04 July is a full holiday as the country celebrates Independence Day. And looking a bit further ahead, we remind you that early parliamentary elections will be held in France on Sunday, 07 July, the result of which could greatly affect the common European currency.

GBP/USD: Focus – On 04 July Elections

General parliamentary elections will be held not only in France but also in the United Kingdom, scheduled for Thursday, 04 July. Announcing this event, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stated that he is proud of the "achievements of his government [Conservatives]". "Economic stability is the foundation of any success," he added, noting that the UK economy is still growing and inflation has returned to normal levels.

Despite Sunak's assurances, in May 2024, the monitoring company Ipsos reported that 84% of the population are "dissatisfied with how the government is managing the country". Current election forecasts based on public opinion polls show that 21.3% may vote for the Conservatives, 41.9% for their opponents, the Labour Party, and the rest for other parties.

It must be noted that the government of Rishi Sunak has several real achievements. On 19 June, data on consumer inflation (CPI) was published, and overall, the picture turned out to be quite good. The consumer price index month-on-month remained at the previous level of 0.3%, lower than the forecasted 0.4%. Year-on-year, the CPI decreased from 2.3% to 2.0%, reaching the Bank of England's (BoE) target for the first time since October 2021. The core index (Core CPI), which excludes volatile components such as food and energy prices, also showed a significant decrease from 3.9% to 3.5% year-on-year.

According to the report from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), presenting the final data on 28 June for Q1 2024, the UK economy grew by 0.7%, higher than the previous value and forecast of 0.6%. Year-on-year, real growth was 0.3%, exceeding the previous value and expectation of 0.2%. This was the best dynamic since Q4 2021.

If the UK parliamentary elections on 04 July and the inflation report on 17 July do not bring significant surprises, the markets predict that the BoE will start lowering rates at its nearest meeting on 01 August. According to ING bank strategists, "we still forecast that the Bank of England will start lowering rates in August and will begin to signal this in its speeches as soon as the general elections on 04 July are over". In their opinion, the likelihood of rate cuts by the Bank of England is much higher than those by the Fed, which will put pressure on the pound sterling. TDS company analysts, on the other hand, give the following forecast: "We believe a rate cut of 15 b.p. is expected in August, and about 50 b.p. in total for 2024". In several other market participant forecasts, it is also mentioned that by November, the reduction could be around 30 b.p.

GBP/USD ended the past five-day period exactly where it started – at 1.2644. The analyst forecast ahead of the parliamentary elections is unequivocal – 100% side with the dollar and expect the British currency to weaken. Regarding technical analysis on D1, there is also a clear advantage on the dollar's side. Trend indicators are in favour of the dollar at 65% to 35% red to green. Oscillators are 100% pointing south, with 20% signalling the pair is oversold. In case of further decline, the pair's levels and support zones are 1.2610-1.2620, 1.2540, 1.2445-1.2465, 1.2405, 1.2300-1.2330. In case of the pair's growth, it will meet resistance at levels 1.2675, 1.2700, 1.2740-1.2760, 1.2800-1.2820, 1.2860-1.2895, 1.2965-1.2995, 1.3040, and 1.3130-1.3140.

As for the events of the upcoming week, all investor attention is focused on the elections on 04 July. The next important event, as mentioned, will be the publication of the fresh inflation report in the United Kingdom on 17 July.

USD/JPY: Another Peak Conquered

Last week, 75% of analysts expecting new currency interventions voted for the USD/JPY pair's retreat south, while the remaining 25% pointed north. The minority, as is often the case with the Japanese currency, turned out to be right: no interventions occurred, and the pair reached another peak – 161.28.

Frankly, there's nothing to comment on here – everything has been discussed dozens and hundreds of times. The problem of the yen's weakening lies in the ultra-loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). And as long as it does not decisively turn towards tightening, the national currency will continue to lose its positions. Of course, for a while, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank can support its exchange rate with currency interventions. But spending billions and billions on something that disappears like ripples on water after a few days – is there any point in that? Can this be called monetary policy?

If inflation falls in major competing countries, in Japan, it rises. According to data published on Friday, 28 June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tokyo for the year ending in June rose to 2.3% compared to 2.2% for the previous period. The core CPI inflation (excluding volatile food prices) also increased to 2.1% year-on-year, which is higher than both the forecast of 2.0% and the previous value of 1.9%. Another core CPI index for Tokyo (excluding food and energy prices) decreased in June to 1.8% year-on-year compared to the previous value of 2.2%.

Of course, these are not jumps that warrant sounding a loud alarm – all indicators are "hovering" around the target 2.0%. This allows Japanese officials to pause, without changing the vector of their monetary policy, and to limit themselves to verbal "interventions". Thus, Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki once again stated that he is "deeply concerned about excessive and unilateral movements in the Forex market" and expressed hope that "trust in the Japanese currency is maintained". Suzuki's colleague, Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, delivered almost the same speech word for word. However, he added that the authorities "will take appropriate measures regarding excessive currency movements", hinting at another currency intervention.

This hint from Yoshimasa Hayashi scared 60% of experts who voted for the pair's southward movement and yen strengthening, 20% pointed north, and 20% took a neutral position. The opinion of the indicators is unambiguous, as they have never heard of interventions. Therefore, all 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are green, although a quarter of the latter are in the overbought zone. The nearest support level is around 160.25, followed by 159.20, 158.65, 157.60-157.80, 156.60, 155.45-155.70, 154.50-154.70, 153.60, 153.00, 151.90-152.15, 150.80-151.00. The nearest resistance is in the 160.85 zone, followed by 161.30 and 162.50.

In the upcoming week, the calendar highlights Monday, 01 July. On this day, the Tankan Large Manufacturers Index will be published. No other important macro statistics regarding the state of the Japanese economy are planned for the coming days.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Causes and Consequences of "Black Monday" on 24 June


Monday, 24 June, presented investors with a very unpleasant surprise – on this day, bitcoin's price fell below $60,000 for the first time since 03 May, reaching $58,468 at one point. Ethereum, in turn, fell below $3,250. Analysts highlight several reasons for the active sell-offs, noting that they reflect overall instability in global financial markets and uncertainty about monetary and regulatory policies in several leading countries, especially China and the US. However, there are also more specific factors that contributed to the development of the bearish trend.

In mid-June, the German government began selling off a huge amount of bitcoins (about 50,000 BTC) confiscated in January. Panic sentiment sharply intensified after the announcement on 24 June that creditor payments for the bankrupt crypto exchange Mt.Gox would begin in early July. The total amount of funds to be distributed among former clients is 162,100 BTC, roughly $10 billion. Bitcoin responded to this news with an 8% drop. It’s no surprise – such a volume of coins flooding the free market can seriously knock down prices. In the derivatives market, long positions worth $177 million were forcibly liquidated, and the total financing rate for futures contracts turned negative for the first time in June, indicating that sales exceeded purchases.

It is precisely on the expectations of Mt.Gox debt payments that the flagship crypto asset's quotes reached the lowest level in the past eight weeks last Monday. In this situation, two things are encouraging. Firstly, the deadline for repayment falls on 31 October, and it's possible that payments will be made in parts over four months rather than all at once. And secondly, there is hope that not all creditors will rush to convert their bitcoins into fiat, but will hold onto them, hoping for price growth.

In addition to the above, BTC miners exerted some downward pressure on the market. It became known that their coin reserves reached a 14-year low, as they had to sell a significant amount of BTC due to the April halving to cover operational expenses. Recall that the cost of mining bitcoin, according to JPMorgan analysts, is $53,000. Historically, this cost level is a strong support for BTC/USD. However, even in March, JPMorgan did not rule out that after the halving, bitcoin could temporarily fall to $42,000.

In the absence of positive signals, the demand for spot bitcoin ETFs continues to decline, major market participants slow down their activity, and start to take profits. This also pressures the prices. CEO of investment company CryptoQuant Ki Young Ju calculated that over the past two weeks, bitcoin whales and miners set a record by selling coins worth $1.2 billion.

According to 10x Research, all last week, US spot BTC ETFs recorded investor outflows, and on 21 June, net outflow exceeded $105 million. 10x Research believes that bitcoin will now need to find a new price range to stabilize the decline and then find growth catalysts. In the medium term, according to 10x Research analysts, it is not worth expecting BTC to return above $70,000.

Popular analyst Matthew Hyland noted that the combined bitcoin balance on centralized exchanges reached a multi-year low. In theory, this could be seen as a bullish signal, but the crypto market leader is not yet eager to show an upward trend. Naturally, the publication of key US economic data could serve as a vector for further cryptocurrency movements. If the Fed takes its first step in easing its monetary policy in September, it could support risky assets, including bitcoin. According to Cryptology experts, the chances of bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by the end of September are quite high, and what is happening now is a phase of accumulation.

Despite the current decline, many investors remain optimistic, citing the cyclical nature of the crypto market. They also do not forget about the US elections. For example, former Goldman Sachs CEO Raoul Pal predicted significant bitcoin and cryptocurrency market growth in Q4 2024. In an episode of The Wolf Of All Streets podcast, the financier noted that risky assets like bitcoin usually rally against the backdrop of US presidential elections. "The final quarter of an election year is a real 'banana zone' for all assets. It always is," Pal optimistically stated, noting that the "banana zone" for cryptocurrencies in autumn is much more pronounced than, for example, for the Nasdaq index.

Bitcoin was also supported by billionaire Michael Saylor. His company, MicroStrategy, is one of the largest bitcoin holders in the world, with 205,000 BTC on its balance sheet. Despite the negative trend, it increased its reserves by another 11,931 BTC (over $700 million) in the past month alone. Saylor is convinced of the first cryptocurrency's ability to grow to $10 million with support from China and other factors. He believes that in the future, governments, especially China, will fully embrace the first cryptocurrency and integrate it into the state infrastructure. The entrepreneur declared all pre-bitcoin economic instruments obsolete. "Before Satoshi Nakamoto, economics was a pseudoscience. All economists before Satoshi tried to develop economic laws with shells, glass beads, pieces of paper, and credit instruments," the businessman wrote, calling bitcoin a "perfect asset."

In previous reviews, we already wrote that the launch of exchange-traded spot ETFs on Ethereum could give a certain boost to the digital asset market. On 25 June, SEC (US Securities and Exchange Commission) Chairman Gary Gensler noted that the registration process for new ETFs is "going smoothly," and the approval date depends on how quickly applicants submit adjusted S-1 forms. Bloomberg analysts call 02 July the expected approval date for new products. Reuters, citing anonymous sources, reports that a consensus has been reached between fund managers and the SEC in negotiations, and only the "final touches" remain.

Co-founder of venture company Mechanism Capital Andrew Kang stated that after the approval of ETH-ETF, Ethereum's rate could correct by 30%, falling to $2,400. In his opinion, at this stage, the main altcoin attracts much less attention from institutional investors compared to bitcoin. Based on this, ETH-ETF will attract only 15% of funds compared to what BTC-ETF received at the start.

Kang noted that to increase Ethereum's attractiveness among investors, its ecosystem needs to be positioned as a decentralized financial settlement layer, a global computer, or a Web3 application store. At the same time, it will be difficult to sell new ideas for Ethereum's application to funds, as the asset is perceived by investors as an overvalued stock of a large technology company.

Significantly more positively views the future of Ethereum Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, a company managing cryptocurrency funds. In his opinion, the appearance of a long-awaited exchange product is undoubtedly a positive factor, and the net inflow of investments into ETH-ETF over the first 18 months will amount to $15 billion. In his analysis, he relies on the experience of Canada and the EU, where in similar products the inflow ratio for Ethereum and Bitcoin is approximately 1 to 4 (i.e., 25%). In other words, if in the first quarter of work for spot Bitcoin-ETF the total inflow was $26.9 billion, for Ethereum it is expected to be at the level of $6.7 billion. In this case, in three months of work, the leading altcoin could rise to $4,400-5,000.

CEO of SkyBridge Capital Anthony Scaramucci believes that the price of Ethereum could rise even higher, reaching $10,000-12,000. Regarding bitcoin, the entrepreneur allows for its growth to $170,000-250,000. The main driver, in his opinion, will be the further institutional acceptance of cryptocurrency. Scaramucci called the approval of spot exchange ETFs an important regulatory barrier breakthrough for attracting new capital. Thanks to this, in his opinion, the share of digital gold in the portfolios of major players will soon be about 3%.

As of the evening of Friday, 28 June, BTC/USD is trading at $60,190, and ETH/USD is in the $3,390 zone. The total crypto market capitalization is $2.24 trillion ($2.34 trillion a week ago). The bitcoin Fear & Greed Index (Crypto Fear & Greed Index) has dropped from 63 to 47 points over the past 7 days, moving from the Greed zone to the Neutral zone.

In conclusion, here is another observation from Matt Hougan. The CIO of Bitwise presented three reasons why long-term investments in both bitcoin and Ethereum are more advantageous compared to investing only in bitcoin. These are: 1. portfolio diversification 2. the opportunity to earn on very different ecosystems and 3. economic benefit.

Considering the difference in the capitalization levels of bitcoin and Ethereum, Hougan believes that 75% of the capital should be invested in BTC and 25% in ETH. According to calculations, over the period from May 2020 to May 2024, the yield of such an investment portfolio is 3% per annum higher than one that only contains bitcoin. However, Hougan acknowledges that in the shorter term, a portfolio including 100% BTC outperforms a diversified one. Moreover, investing only in bitcoin carries fewer risks due to its higher market capitalization and features such as limited coin issuance and a phased reduction in the inflation rate to zero.

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 24 - 28, 2024

EUR/USD: Eurozone - Rising Inflation, Falling Economy

As revised Eurostat data published on Monday, June 17, showed, inflation (CPI) in the 20 Eurozone countries accelerated to 2.6% (y/y) in May, compared to 2.4% in April when it was at its lowest since November 2023. The consumer price index in the services sector increased annually from 3.7% to 4.1%. Core inflation, excluding the cost of food and energy (CPI Core), accelerated to 2.9% in May, compared to 2.7% in April - the lowest since February 2022.

Such growth in consumer prices gave euro bulls a faint hope that the European Central Bank (ECB) would slow down the rate cut. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD went up, reaching a local high of 1.0760. However, the business activity statistics (PMI) in the Eurozone, released on June 21, showed that to support the economy, the rate needs to be reduced further, not frozen at the current level of 4.25%.

In Germany, the locomotive of the European economy, the PMI index in the manufacturing sector was 43.4 points in June, worsening compared to the May figure of 45.4 and significantly below the forecast of 46.4. The PMI index in the services sector fell from 54.2 to 53.5, failing to meet market expectations of 54.4. The preliminary Composite PMI index for Germany also declined in June to 50.6 points, against the forecast of 52.7 and 52.4 in May. It is worth noting that all three indicators were the weakest in the last two months.

Eurozone statistics, in general, were not very encouraging. According to preliminary data, the PMI index in the manufacturing sector fell from 47.3 in May to 45.6 in June, missing the forecast of 47.9. The PMI index in the services sector decreased from 53.2 to 52.6 (forecast 53.5). The Composite PMI fell from 52.2 to 50.8 (forecast 52.5) and nearly reached the critical mark of 50.0 points, separating progress from regression.

After these data were released, market participants awaited similar statistics from the USA, which were to be published at the end of the workweek. The Composite PMI showed that business activity in the US private sector, unlike the Eurozone, continues to grow confidently. According to preliminary estimates, this indicator increased from 54.5 in May to 54.6 in June. The PMI in the manufacturing sector grew from 51.3 to 51.7 over the same period, while the services sector business activity index increased from 54.8 to 55.1. All these indicators exceeded analysts' expectations (51.0 and 53.4, respectively).

In addition to PMI data, the Fed's monetary policy report at the end of Friday also drew significant interest. Following its publication, EUR/USD ended the week at 1.0691. Regarding the analysts' forecast for the near term, as of the evening of June 21, it remained unchanged from seven days ago. Thus, 60% of experts voted for the pair's decline, 20% for its growth, and another 20% remained neutral. In technical analysis, 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 sided with the dollar and turned red, although a quarter of the latter are in the oversold zone. The nearest support for the pair is in the 1.0665-1.0670 zone, followed by 1.0600-1.0615, 1.0565, 1.0495-1.0515, 1.0450, and 1.0370. Resistance zones are located at 1.0760, then at 1.0810, 1.0890-1.0915, 1.0945, 1.0980-1.1010, 1.1050, and 1.1100-1.1140.

Next week, there is plenty of interesting and important information expected from the USA. On Tuesday, June 25, the US Consumer Confidence Index will be published. On Wednesday, June 26, we will learn the results of the US bank stress test. On Thursday, June 27, data on the US GDP for Q1 2024 and the number of initial jobless claims in the country will be released. Finally, at the end of the workweek, on Friday, June 28, data on the US consumer market, including such an important inflation indicator as the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, will be published.

GBP/USD: How the Interest Rate Will Fall

On Wednesday, June 19, a day before the Bank of England (BoE) meeting, consumer inflation (CPI) data was published in the UK. Overall, the picture was quite good. The consumer price index remained at the previous level of 0.3% month-on-month, lower than the projected 0.4%. Year-on-year, the CPI fell from 2.3% to 2.0%, reaching the central bank's target for the first time since October 2021. The core index (Core CPI), excluding volatile components such as food and energy prices, also showed a noticeable decrease from 3.9% to 3.5% (y/y).

The still high level of inflation in the services sector was disappointing. This indicator was higher than forecasted in the central bank's May report and amounted to 5.7% (y/y) against the expected 5.3%. "Indicators such as rent growth remain quite high. [...] These data confirm that the Bank of England will not lower rates at tomorrow's meeting," commented ING Bank strategists on the published statistics on June 19, and they were right.

At its meeting on Thursday, June 20, the Bank of England left the key interest rate unchanged for the seventh consecutive time, at 5.25%. Seven members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for such a decision, two votes were cast for lowering the rate, and zero votes for increasing it. According to several policymakers, such a decision by the regulator was "finely balanced."

The latest data on inflation in the services sector is unlikely to prevent the BoE from starting a cycle of easing its monetary policy (QE) in the second half of the year. Especially since, according to the Committee members, the higher-than-expected CPI was due to one-off wage payment factors.

If the parliamentary elections in the UK on July 4 and the inflation report on July 17 do not present significant surprises, the Bank of England is expected to begin lowering rates as early as August. As ING Bank strategists write, "markets are pricing in a 43% probability of the first rate cut in August and expect easing by 46 basis points (bps) by the end of the year." TDS analysts, in turn, give the following forecast: "We expect a 15 bps rate cut by the August meeting and around 50 bps in total for 2024." Several other market participants' forecasts also suggest a reduction of about 30 bps by November.

On the day after the BoE meeting, Friday, June 21, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published fresh data on retail sales in the UK, which were significantly higher than forecasted. In May, they increased by 2.9% (m/m) after falling by -1.8% in April, with markets expecting a growth of 1.5%. The core retail sales index, excluding automotive fuel, also grew by 2.9% (m/m) against a previous decline of -1.4% and a market forecast of 1.3%. Year-on-year, retail sales increased by 1.3% compared to April's decrease of -2.3%, while core retail sales rose by 1.2% (y/y) against -2.5% a month earlier.

Preliminary business activity (PMI) data were mixed. However, overall, they showed that the UK's economy is on the rise. PMI in the manufacturing sector increased from 51.2 to 51.4 points (forecast 51.3). Business activity in the services sector amounted to 51.2, below the previous value of 52.9 and the forecast of 53.0. The Composite PMI showed a slight decline to 51.7 against the forecast of 53.1 and 53.0 a month earlier. Despite the last two indicators being below previous values, they still remain above the 50.0 horizon separating economic growth from decline.

Against this backdrop, the pound attempted to recoup some losses but failed, and GBP/USD ended the week at 1.2643, turning strong support in the 1.2675 zone into resistance.

The analysts' forecast for the near term looks neutral: 50% of experts voted for the dollar to strengthen, while the same number (50%) preferred the British currency.

As for technical analysis on D1, the advantage is on the dollar's side. Among trend indicators, the ratio of forces between red and green is 75% to 25% in favour of the former. Among oscillators, 85% point south (a quarter signals the pair is oversold) and only 15% look north. If the pair continues to fall, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2540, 1.2445-1.2465, 1.2405, and 1.2300-1.2330. In the event of the pair's growth, it will face resistance at levels 1.2675, 1.2740-1.2760, 1.2800-1.2820, 1.2850-1.2860, 1.2895-1.2900, 1.2965-1.2995, 1.3040, and 1.3130-1.3140.

As for the events of the coming week, not many are expected. Among the most important is the publication of the UK's GDP data on Friday, June 28.

USD/JPY: BoJ Rate Hike Chances Close to Zero


At its meeting on June 13-14, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept the interest rate unchanged at 0.1%. Recall that in March this year, the central bank made a "bold" move by raising the rate for the first time since 2007 (it had been at a negative level of -0.1% since 2016). However, after this single rate hike in 17 years, the BoJ is unlikely to continue raising it in the foreseeable future, no matter how much some analysts and investors might want it.

Such desires and forecasts are popular due to the very low level of the Japanese currency. In early 2011, USD/JPY traded around 76.00, and since then, the yen has weakened more than twofold – on April 29, 2024, the pair reached a level of 160.22, the highest since 1986. This negatively affects national businesses. The benefits of a weak yen for exports do not cover the negatives for imports, as the trade balance is negative; the country imports more than it exports. Expensive imports, primarily raw materials and energy, reduce production profitability. GDP growth rates are falling – in Q1 2024, this indicator showed an economic contraction to -1.8% (y/y) compared to +0.4% in the previous quarter. Additionally, the national debt relative to GDP is approaching 265%.

In such a situation, the economy needs support, not restraint by raising the key interest rate. Moreover, compared to other G10 countries, inflation in Japan is low and has been steadily declining in recent months. According to fresh data, the national CPI index, excluding food and energy prices, fell from 2.4% to 2.1%. Moreover, in June, it could fall below the BoJ's target level of 2.0%. Thus, combating inflation by raising rates is unnecessary and even harmful. But how can the yen's position be strengthened then?

Another method besides tightening monetary policy (QT) is currency interventions. Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda stated on June 20 that the government "will respond carefully to excessive currency movements" and that he "has never felt limited in the potential for currency interventions" and that the interventions conducted in May "were quite effective in combating excessive currency movements caused by speculators."

The words are beautiful. However, looking at the chart, one would argue with the official about the effectiveness of the interventions. Of course, USD/JPY retreated from the 160.00 mark for a while. But this period was quite short, and now it is again approaching this height. One can also recall similar actions in previous years, which only temporarily restrained the national currency's weakening.

This time, it seems officials have come up with another way to increase the effectiveness of monetary policy without changing rates. According to Reuters, the Ministry of Finance's commission is likely to urge the government to issue shorter-maturity debt obligations to reduce the risk of interest rate changes. (For reference, the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds currently exceeds 0.9%, nine times the central bank's rate).

The last chord of the past week for USD/JPY was set at 159.79. The continuation of the Fed's tight policy, confirmed at the June meeting, and the BoJ's ongoing soft policy still play in favour of the dollar. (Although, of course, new currency interventions are not excluded). Economists from Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB) believe that only a breakthrough of support at 156.50-156.80 will indicate that the pair's current upward momentum has faded.

The median forecast of experts for the near term is as follows: 75% of them voted for the pair's move south and the yen's strengthening (apparently expecting new interventions), while the remaining 25% pointed north. Indicators show the opposite picture; they have not even heard about interventions. Therefore, all 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are green, although 20% of the latter are in the overbought zone. The nearest support level is around 158.65, followed by 157.60-158.20, 156.80-157.05, 156.00-156.10, 155.45-155.80, 154.50-154.70, 153.60, 152.85, 151.85, 150.80-151.00, 149.70-150.00, 148.40, 147.60, and 146.50-147.10. The nearest resistance is in the 160.00-160.20 zone, followed by 162.50.

The upcoming week looks busy on Friday, June 28. On this day, data on consumer inflation (CPI) in the Tokyo region will be published, as well as data on industrial production volumes and the labour market situation in Japan. No other important economic statistics are planned for the coming days.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Patience, Patience, and More Patience

In the last review, we published a forecast by MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe, who expected BTC/USD to fall to the $60,000-65,000 range. The analyst was essentially correct – the week's low was recorded on Friday, June 21, when the price dropped to around $63,365.

This time, we want to draw attention to the forecast of another influencer, the president of Euro Pacific Capital and a fierce opponent of cryptocurrencies, Peter Schiff. We have quoted his apocalyptic predictions multiple times. This time, the financier outlined a possible hedge fund strategy that would lead to bitcoin's collapse. According to him, investors in exchange-traded BTC spot ETFs treat digital gold as a speculative asset. Schiff noted that bitcoin has been in a "sideways" trend for the third month, trading below the March high. With such dynamics, investors might lose patience and decide to close positions at some point, causing BTC quotes to collapse amid a lack of liquidity.

It must be said that Schiff's negative forecast has some basis – in recent days, American spot Bitcoin ETFs have indeed shown an outflow of funds. Since June 7, their cumulative balance has decreased by $879 million to $15 billion. Over the past two weeks, long-term whale holders have sold digital gold worth $1.2 billion, with more than $370 million attributed to GBTC. Thus, whales and ETFs have collectively created downward pressure worth $1.7 billion during this time.

Of course, a cryptocurrency market crash is unlikely, no matter how much Peter Schiff might want it. However, the current situation raises concerns among many specialists. Usually, bullish cryptocurrency markets are fueled by general enthusiasm around the digital coin. However, analysts at IntoTheBlock observe that despite a surge in activity among major holders (whales) earlier this year, there is no influx of new participants in the market. In fact, the number of primary BTC users has sharply dropped to multi-year lows, falling to levels seen during the bear market of 2018. This lack of growth creates a critical misunderstanding of why investors are not buying bitcoins. "Retail investors remain on the sidelines," IntoTheBlock notes.

Perhaps it is all due to the relaxed summer mood, general macroeconomic gloom, lack of sources of fresh money inflow, and other drivers. But everything can change, of course. Speaking at the BTC Prague 2024 conference, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor reiterated that bitcoin should be considered one of the safest assets today. When asked by journalists whether it is time to sell BTC, the entrepreneur replied that the asset currently lacks fundamental growth catalysts, but a price rise should be expected soon. According to Michael Saylor, those who show patience will later receive enormous profits from owning digital gold. (For reference: MicroStrategy is the largest holder of bitcoins among public companies, with 205,000 BTC on its balance sheet, worth over $13 billion).

Analysts at the financial company Bernstein have raised the target price of the first cryptocurrency to $200,000 by the end of 2025. The forecast is driven by expectations of "unprecedented demand from spot bitcoin ETFs managed by BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, and others." "We believe that ETFs have become a turning point for cryptocurrencies, causing structural demand from traditional pools of capital. In total, ETFs have attracted around $15 billion in new net funds," Bernstein's explanatory note reads.

According to the company's experts, bitcoin is in a new bullish cycle. They called the halving a unique situation where natural selling pressure from miners is halved or more, and new demand catalysts for cryptocurrency appear, leading to exponential price movements. Analysts pointed to previous cycles: in 2017, digital gold rose to a high roughly five times the marginal production cost and then fell to a low of 0.8 of this figure in 2018. "During the 2024-2027 cycle, we expect bitcoin to rise to 1.5 times this metric, implying a cycle high of $200,000 by mid-2025," Bernstein believes.

For now, at the time of writing, on the evening of Friday, June 21, the BTC/USD pair is far from $200,000 and trades at $64,150. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $2.34 trillion ($2.38 trillion a week ago). The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index dropped from 70 to 63 points over 7 days but remains in the Greed zone.

To conclude the review, here's news from the world of Artificial Intelligence. For many years, there have been ongoing debates about the imperfections of the first cryptocurrency's concept. Some accuse the coin's creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, of shortsightedness, while others criticize the project's technical execution. To find out what's wrong with bitcoin, the editorial team at BeInCrypto asked the latest version of ChatGPT to analyze the cryptocurrency's whitepaper published by Nakamoto in October 2008. As a result, Artificial Intelligence found several shortcomings and errors in the main document of the crypto industry, some of which seem quite serious:

1. The 51% rule. The whitepaper claims that the network is secure if more than 50% of the power is controlled by honest participants. However, practice has shown that under certain conditions, attacks are possible with fewer resources.

2. Anonymity. The document mentions user anonymity, but bitcoin provides only pseudonymity. Transactions can be traced back to specific users.

3. Scalability. The document did not foresee scalability issues that became apparent with the network's popularity growth. High transaction volumes lead to delays and increased fees.

4. Software updates. The document does not address the need for regular software updates to maintain network security and implement new features.

5. Fork resistance. The document does not consider risks associated with network hard forks. Forks like Bitcoin Cash polarize the community, potentially reducing the network's value.

6. Regulation and legal issues. The document does not mention potential legal and regulatory obstacles for bitcoin. Since its publication, many countries have introduced or are considering regulatory measures.

7. Mining difficulty. The document's author did not foresee the significant increase in mining difficulty and the energy consumption changes. Modern mining requires enormous computing power and electricity. According to Greenpeace, in 2023, global bitcoin mining consumed approximately 121 TWh of electricity, comparable to the energy consumption of a country like Poland. This has led to significant CO2 emissions and serious atmospheric pollution, as stated in Greenpeace's report.


NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 17 – 21 June 2024

EUR/USD: Hawkish Sentiments of the Fed

As expected, the key day of last week was Wednesday, 12 June. After the publication of inflation data in the USA, the dollar came under strong pressure. Fresh figures showed that in May, the overall inflation rate (CPI) in annual terms decreased to 3.3% compared to the expected 3.4%. On a monthly basis, the indicator dropped from 0.3% to 0% against the forecast of 0.1%. The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI), which does not take into account food and energy prices, was 0.2% (m/m) compared to April, which was below the forecast of 0.3%. Annually, this index grew by 3.4%, showing the slowest growth rate in the last three years (previous value 3.6%, forecast 3.5%).

This cooling of inflation increased market participants' expectations that the Fed might lower the interest rate twice this year, with the first stage of monetary policy easing occurring as early as September. As a result, the Dollar Index (DXY) fell from 105.3 to 104.3, and EUR/USD soared by more than 100 points, reaching a local high of 1.0851.

However, the bears' joy regarding the dollar was short-lived. The results of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve returned the DXY to its starting point. The key interest rate was predictably left unchanged at 5.50%. At the same time, the new median forecast of FOMC members showed that the regulator confidently expects only one rate cut in 2024. Recall that in March, the Fed predicted three cuts in 2024 and three in 2025. Now, 15 out of 19 Fed leaders expect at least one or two cuts this year (7 for 25 basis points, 8 for 50 basis points), while the remaining 4 forecast the start of easing (QE) no earlier than 2025. Currently, CME Group's FedWatch indicates almost a 70% probability of the start of QE at the September FOMC meeting.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted at the post-meeting press conference that the US labour market remains generally strong, although not overheated. The US economy continues to grow at a confident pace. According to him, further actions will depend on the balance of risks at each meeting. The Fed does not intend to allow a labour market collapse as a means of reducing inflation. If the economy remains resilient and inflation stable, the Fed is ready to maintain the current rate level for as long as necessary. If the labour market weakens or inflation falls faster than expected, the US central bank is ready to respond with a rate cut. At the same time, Powell noted that the regulator needs to see more "good data" to be confident in the sustainable movement of inflation towards the target level of 2.0%. Additionally, he warned markets against excessive expectations regarding the supposed monetary policy easing, adding that a single rate cut of 25 basis points will not have a significant impact on the economy.

Powell's rather hawkish rhetoric was reinforced by the publication of new medium-term economic forecasts presented by the Fed following the meeting. Thus, the regulator raised the inflation forecast for 2024 to 2.6% from 2.4%, and for 2025 to 2.3% from 2.2%. The Fed hopes to return inflation to the target 2.0% only in 2026. The US GDP growth forecast remained unchanged throughout the forecast horizon – at 2.1% in 2024-2026. The Fed also kept the unemployment forecast in the US at 4.0% in 2024, increasing it to 4.2% from 4.1% in 2025, and to 4.1% from 4.0% in 2026. 

Besides this hawkish revision of the US central bank's economic forecasts, the dollar's further strengthening was facilitated by its role as a safe-haven currency. The future of the euro remains in question against the backdrop of political uncertainty in the Eurozone. On Sunday, 9 June, the results of the European Parliament elections, which shocked many, were announced: in Germany, France, and Belgium, far-right parties won while ruling parties suffered defeats. In France, President Emmanuel Macron's party garnered only 14.5% of the votes, resulting in the dissolution of the National Assembly and the appointment of early elections. Some market participants believe that political risks may send EUR/USD to the 1.0600 area or even lower in the coming weeks.

The weakening of the euro will also be facilitated by the fact that the European Central Bank has already begun a cycle of rate cuts. On Thursday, 6 June, the ECB Governing Council cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%. Since September 2023, inflation in the Eurozone has decreased by more than 2.5%, allowing the regulator to take such a step for the first time in a long while. Additionally, fresh macroeconomic data show that the target level of 2.0% may be achieved quite soon. For instance, the German CPI, the locomotive of the European economy, published on Wednesday, 12 June, showed a decline from 0.5% to 0.1% (m/m). ECB representative Bostjan Vasle stated on Thursday that "further rate cuts are possible if the disinflation process continues."

The last chord of the past week saw EUR/USD at 1.0702. As for the forecast of analysts for the near future, as of the evening of 14 June, 60% of their votes were given for the pair's decline, 20% for its rise, and 20% remained neutral. As for technical analysis, 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 sided with the dollar, all coloured red, although 20% of the latter are in the oversold zone. The nearest support for the pair lies in the 1.0670 zone, followed by 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0560, 1.0495-1.0515, 1.0450, 1.0370. Resistance zones are in the areas of 1.0740, then 1.0780-1.0810, 1.0865-1.0895, 1.0925-1.0940, 1.0980-1.1010, 1.1050, 1.1100-1.1140.

In the coming week, on Tuesday, 18 June, it will be known what is happening with inflation (CPI) in the Eurozone, and statistics on the US retail market will also be released. On Wednesday, 19 June, it will be a holiday in the United States: the country celebrates Juneteenth. On Thursday, 20 June, the number of initial jobless claims in the US will be known, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will also be published. And at the very end of the workweek, on Friday, 21 June, a whole series of preliminary business activity (PMI) data will be received in various sectors of the German, Eurozone, and US economies. The publication of the Fed's Monetary Policy Report on the same day will also attract considerable interest.

GBP/USD: What Will the Bank of England Decide on 20 June?

In autumn 2023, the BoE concluded that its monetary policy should remain tight for a prolonged period until inflation confidently stabilises at the target level of 2.0%. Based on this, despite a decrease in price pressure, at its meeting on 8 May, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided by a majority vote (seven to two) to keep the key interest rate at the previous level of 5.25%. (Two MPC members voted for a reduction to 5.0%).

According to the country's Office for National Statistics (ONS), since November 2022, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has fallen from 11.1% to 2.3% – the lowest level since July 2021. The British central bank expects this figure to return to the target level in the near future but to increase slightly to around 2.5% in the second half of the year due to rising energy prices. Additionally, according to the May forecasts, CPI will be 1.9% in two years (Q2 2026) and 1.6% in three years (Q2 2027).

British inflation expectations for the near future have also decreased to the lowest level in almost three years, indicating a return to historically average levels. In May, the country's residents on average expected consumer prices to rise by 2.8% over the next 12 months, compared to a forecast of around 3% in February. This is stated in the results of the British central bank's quarterly survey.

Data on business activity (PMI) published in the first week of June indicated that the economy in the United Kingdom is relatively well. Activity in the manufacturing sector rose to 51.2 from 49.1 earlier. Some slowdown was shown by the PMI for the services sector – from 55.0 to 52.9, and the composite PMI – from 54.1 to 53.0. However, despite this, all these indicators remain above the 50.0 mark, separating growth from a slowdown in activity.

Certain concerns are raised by the UK labour market. Statistics published in early June showed a spike in jobless claims – by 50.4K in May after 8.4K the previous month. This is the largest monthly increase since the first COVID lockdowns. Before the pandemic, the last such spike was during the 2009 recession. Moreover, the unemployment rate for the February-April 2024 period rose to 4.4%. Of course, historically, this is a low level, but it is the highest in three years. 

The next Bank of England meeting will be held on Thursday, 20 June. Analysts generally forecast that the interest rate will remain unchanged at 5.25%. This forecast is supported by the slowdown in inflation decline rates. Additionally, there is a significant increase in UK wages (+6.0%), which could push prices up. This, in turn, reduces the likelihood of the British central bank transitioning to a softer monetary policy in the near future. The start of QE may be delayed until September or later.

The BoE's tight monetary policy creates prerequisites for future demand for the pound. Meanwhile, last week, GBP/USD was driven by overseas data. On US inflation data, it broke through the upper boundary of the 1.2700-1.2800 channel and rose to 1.2860, then, following the FOMC meeting results, it fell and broke through the lower boundary, dropping to 1.2656. The week ended at 1.2686.

The median forecast of analysts for the near term is somewhat similar to the forecast for the previous pair. In this case, 50% of specialists voted for dollar strengthening, 25% for a northern trajectory, and 25% remained neutral. As for technical analysis on D1, the picture is also mixed. Trend indicators are evenly split 50:50 between red and green. Among oscillators, 60% point south (a quarter signal oversold), 20% look north, and the remaining 20% remain neutral. In case of further pair decline, support levels and zones are 1.2575-1.2600, 1.2540, 1.2445-1.2465, 1.2405, 1.2300-1.2330. In case of pair growth, resistance will be encountered at 1.2760, 1.2800-1.2820, 1.2865-1.2900.

Besides the mentioned Bank of England meeting on 20 June, including its interest rate decision and subsequent press conference, it is necessary to note Wednesday, 19 June, when fresh consumer inflation (CPI) data for the UK will be released. Friday, 21 June, also promises to be interesting. On this day, retail sales volumes and preliminary business activity (PMI) indicators in various sectors of the UK's economy will be known.

USD/JPY: BoJ Changed Nothing but Promised Changes in the Future

Unlike the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting has already taken place, and its results were announced last Friday, 14 June. The yen's weakness in recent months has negatively impacted Asian currencies. In March, the central bank made its first move – raising the rate for the first time since 2007 (since 2016, it had kept it at a negative level of -0.1%). The regulator also abandoned the targeting of 10-year government bond yields. Investors closely watched the Japanese central bank for hints on whether it would further unwind monetary stimulus.

But for now, the BoJ decided not to change its accommodative monetary policy, maintaining the current pace of bond purchases at around 6 trillion yen ($38 billion) per month. However, it promised to present a plan for their gradual reduction at the next meeting in July. "We decided to subsequently reduce the volume of our purchases [within one to two years] to ensure more free formation of long-term interest rates in financial markets," the central bank statement said. At the same time, the regulator announced that it would gather market participants' opinions before making a specific decision.

The deposit rate for commercial banks was also left unchanged – officials unanimously voted to keep it in the range of 0.0%-0.1%, as expected. From this, experts once again concluded that the BoJ would not rush to tighten its quantitative easing (QT) monetary policy.

The French bank Societe Generale believes that given the pressure from the government due to the weak yen, the most likely scenario will be a reduction in bond purchases starting in August, with their purchases decreasing every three months and reaching zero by November 2025. Additionally, according to Societe Generale economists, the BoJ may raise the discount rate in September this year.

Of course, USD/JPY could not ignore such events of the past week as the US CPI figures and the Fed meeting: its fluctuation range exceeded 240 points (155.71 at the low, 158.25 at the high). However, the five-day result was not so impressive: starting at 156.75, it ended at 157.37.

Experts' forecasts for the near term look like this: not a single vote was given for the pair's southern movement and yen strengthening, while the remaining votes were evenly split: 50% pointed north, and 50% remained neutral. As for technical analysis, all trend indicators on D1 are coloured green. The nearest support level is in the 156.80-157.05 zone, followed by 156.00-156.10, 155.45, 154.50-154.70, 153.10-153.60, 151.85-152.15, 150.80-151.00, 149.70-150.00, 148.40, 147.30-147.60, 146.50. The nearest resistance lies in the 157.70 area, followed by 158.25-158.60, 160.00-160.20.

No significant economic statistics releases for Japan are scheduled for the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Present and Future of Bitcoin Depend on the USA


In the absence of independent drivers, the crypto market has recently followed the dollar, which in turn follows the Fed, which follows the macro statistics from the USA. BTC/USD is like scales, with the main cryptocurrency on one side and the US dollar on the other. The dollar became heavier – bitcoin became lighter, and vice versa. On Friday, 7 June, strong statistics on the US labour market were released – the dollar became heavier, bitcoin lighter. On Wednesday, 12 June, it turned out that inflation in the USA was decreasing – the dollar weakened, bitcoin became heavier. And in the evening, the Fed calmed the markets regarding the interest rate – and the scales swung back. Just look at the BTC/USD and Dollar Index (DXY) charts – the inverse correlation leaves no doubt.

In recent days, the flagship of the crypto market has lost about 7% in price. And the reason for this is the aforementioned monetary policy of the US Fed. Enthusiasm was not added by the fact that bitcoin-ETF inflows broke a 19-day streak. On 11 June alone, industry funds lost almost $65 million. The reasons are the same. They can be supplemented by the upcoming summer holiday season – a period of correction and lull in financial markets.

Traders note that recently, "digital gold" has been trading in a narrow range between $66,000 and $72,000. One of the popular market participants considers the lower mark an ideal entry point, while entry at the upper boundary of the range, in his words, carries high risk. MN Capital founder and analyst Michael van de Poppe does not rule out that pressure from sellers will persist in the near future. In such conditions, bitcoin may correct to $65,000 and even lower. However, van de Poppe does not expect a deep price drop. According to him, a large amount of liquidity is concentrated around the $60,000 area. This suggests that this level now acts as a strong support area, and positive dynamics can be supported by geopolitical instability.

According to surveys, more than 70% of the crypto community believe that BTC is on the verge of further growth. For instance, trader Captain Faibik is confident that bitcoin is preparing to break through the "expanding wedge" technical analysis pattern. According to him, breaking its upper boundary will open the path for the cryptocurrency to rise above $94,000. Trader Titan of Crypto, in turn, expects bitcoin to reach $100,000 this summer. The growth prospects of BTC are also indicated by the activity of large investors. According to industry representatives, whales are actively entering long positions on bitcoin. Cryptoquant CEO Ki Young Ju clarified that the $69,000 level has become particularly attractive for large investors.

New Binance CEO Richard Teng, who replaced Changpeng Zhao, believes that bitcoin will soon exceed $80,000. Teng associates the potential new high with the work of spot BTC-ETFs, which have strengthened trust in the asset. The Binance CEO also allows for the legalisation of cryptocurrency if Donald Trump is elected President of the United States. Declaring himself the "crypto president," Trump said in May that the USA should lead the global crypto industry.

However, at present, cryptocurrency regulation measures are in the stage of development and implementation, which restrains investments. According to experts, current investments should be considered test cases. It should also be noted that spot ETFs have attracted significant liquidity only in the USA – there is no similar interest in most countries.

According to billionaire Mark Cuban, the attitude towards cryptocurrencies will be a key difference between US presidential candidates Donald Trump and Joe Biden, although neither understands this issue. "Do you really think [Trump] understands anything about cryptography other than making money from selling NFTs?" Cuban asked. And he answered himself: "Neither of [the candidates] understands. But I've said many times that Biden will have to choose between [SEC Chair] Gary Gensler and crypto-voters, otherwise it could cost him the White House." 

According to Bitfinex crypto exchange analysts, bitcoin's price could rise to $120,000-125,000 within a few months to half a year. Similar figures are named by BitGo crypto trust company CEO Mike Belshe. In his opinion, by the end of 2024, the first cryptocurrency will cost $125,000-135,000, and one of the catalysts will be the high level of US government debt. "Our macroeconomic climate continues to confirm the need for bitcoin. Undoubtedly, US government debt is out of control. [...] This situation supports the idea that bitcoin is the gold of the new generation," Belshe said.

He also noted that the US dollar is losing its position as the world reserve currency due to US foreign policy. The BitGo CEO believes that the country uses the dollar as a weapon and a means of manipulation. "Thus, the US debt crisis is one, foreign policy and sanction control is two. And BRICS offers alternative payment systems. [...] This is the story of why bitcoin exists," he concluded.

At the time of writing this review on the evening of Friday, 14 June, BTC/USD is trading at $65,800. The total crypto market capitalisation is $2.38 trillion ($2.54 trillion a week ago). Bitcoin's capitalisation has reached a solid $1.30 trillion, which, as experts warn, reduces the effect of future inflows. Pessimists say the asset is already "overheated," and to reach $125,000, its capitalisation must almost double. In their opinion, such a colossal influx during the overbought period is unlikely, so one should expect a correction and subsequent consolidation. The possibility of such an outcome is also hinted at by the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index: over 7 days, it fell from 77 to 70 points and moved from the Extreme-Greed zone to the Greed zones.


NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 10 – 14 June 2024

EUR/USD: Who Controls the Financial Market

It is clear that interest rates rule the markets, not only in terms of actual changes but also regarding expectations about the timing and magnitude of future changes. From spring 2022 to mid-2023, the focus was on raising rates; now, the expectation has shifted towards their reduction. Traders are still uncertain about the Federal Reserve's decisions and timing, leading them to scrutinize macroeconomic statistics primarily for their impact on the likelihood of monetary policy easing by the regulator.

At the beginning of last week, the dollar was under pressure due to weak data on business activity (PMI) in the US manufacturing sector. On Monday, 3 June, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that manufacturing activity in the country decreased in May from 49.2 to 48.7 points (forecast 49.6). As the index remained in contraction territory (below 50), there was renewed speculation among traders and investors about a possible Fed rate cut in September.

The US currency received some support from business activity data in the services sector. This time, the PMI was 53.8 points, higher than both the previous value of 49.4 and the forecast of 50.8, which slightly pleased the dollar bulls.

Thursday, 6 June, was relatively calm. The European Central Bank's Governing Council lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%, as expected. This step fully aligned with forecasts and was already factored into EUR/USD  quotes. Notably, the ECB had not lowered rates since 2019, began raising them in July 2022, and kept them unchanged at the same level during the last five meetings. Since September 2023, inflation in the Eurozone has decreased by more than 2.5%, allowing the regulator to take this step for the first time in a long while.

The ECB's statement following the meeting indicated that despite the rate cut, its monetary policy remains restrictive. The regulator forecasts that inflation will likely remain above the 2.0% target this year and next. Therefore, interest rates will remain at restrictive levels as long as necessary to achieve the inflation goal. The ECB raised its forecast for inflation, now expecting CPI to average 2.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026м.

As mentioned, the ECB's current decision was fully anticipated by the market, as predicted by all 82 economists surveyed by Reuters at the end of May. The more intriguing aspect is what will happen next. More than two-thirds of Reuters respondents (55 out of 82) believe that the ECB's Governing Council will cut the rate twice more this year – in September and December. This figure has increased compared to the April survey, where just over half of the economists made such a prediction.

A local triumph for the dollar bulls occurred on Friday, 7 June, when the US Department of Labour report was released. The number of new jobs in the non-farm sector (NFP) was 272K in May, compared to the expected 185K. This result was significantly higher than the revised April figure of 165K. The data also showed a more substantial than expected increase in the average hourly earnings, an inflationary indicator, which grew by 0.4%, double the previous value of 0.2% and one and a half times higher than the forecast of 0.3%. The only slight negative was the unemployment rate, which unexpectedly rose from 3.9% to 4.0%. However, overall, this data benefited the dollar, and the EUR/USD pair, having bounced off the upper boundary of the 3.5-week sideways channel at 1.0900, ended the five-day period at its lower boundary of 1.0800.

Regarding the analysts' forecast for the near future, as of the evening of 7 June, it is quite vague: 40% of experts voted for the pair's growth, and an equal number (40%) for its fall, with the remaining 20% maintaining neutrality. Technical analysis also provides no clear guidance. Among trend indicators on D1, 25% are green and 75% are red. Among oscillators, 25% are green, 15% neutral-grey, and 60% red, though a third of them signal the pair is oversold. The nearest support levels are 1.0785, then 1.0725-1.0740, 1.0665-1.0680, and 1.0600-1.0620. Resistance zones are at 1.0865-1.0895, then 1.0925-1.0940, 1.0980-1.1010, 1.1050, and 1.1100-1.1140.

The upcoming week also promises to be quite interesting. The key day will be Wednesday, 12 June. On this day, consumer inflation (CPI) data for Germany and the United States will be released, followed by the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Fed. It is expected that the regulator will keep the key interest rate unchanged at 5.50%. Therefore, market participants will be more focused on the FOMC's Economic Projections Summary and the subsequent press conference by the Fed leadership. The next day, Thursday, 13 June, will see the release of US Producer Price Index (PPI) data and initial jobless claims numbers. At the end of the week, on Friday, 14 June, the Fed's Monetary Policy Report will be available for review.

USD/JPY: Finance Minister Responds to Questions

A week ago, we wrote that Japanese financial authorities had not confirmed whether they conducted intensive yen purchases on 29 April and 1 May to support its exchange rate. Bloomberg estimated that around ¥9.4 trillion ($60 billion) might have been spent on these currency interventions, setting a new monthly record for such financial operations. We questioned the long-term or even medium-term effectiveness of this expenditure.

It seems that Japan's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, read our review, as he hastened to provide answers to the questions posed. In his statement, he first confirmed that (quote): "the decline in Japan's foreign reserves at the end of May partially reflects currency interventions." This suggests that yen purchases indeed took place. Additionally, the minister noted, "the effectiveness of such interventions should be considered," indicating his doubts about their feasibility.

Suzuki refrained from commenting on the size of the intervention funds but mentioned that while there is no limit on funds for currency interventions, their use would be limited.

As previously mentioned, besides interventions (and the fear of them), another way to support the national currency is through tightening the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Early last week, yen received support from rumours that the BoJ is considering reducing the volume of its quantitative easing (QE) programme. Such a decision could decrease demand for Japanese government bonds (JGBs), increase their yields (which inversely correlates with prices), and positively impact the yen's exchange rate. The Bank of Japan is expected to discuss reducing bond purchases at its meeting next Friday, 14 June.

On Tuesday, 4 June, BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino confirmed concerns that a weak yen could negatively impact the economy and cause inflation to rise. According to him, a low national currency rate increases the cost of imported goods and reduces consumption, as people delay purchases due to high prices. However, Ryozo Himino stated that the Bank of Japan would prefer inflation driven by wage growth, as this would lead to increased household spending and consumption.

The yen received another blow from the dollar after the publication of US labour market data on 7 June. The USD/JPY pair surged as wage growth in the US sharply contrasted with the 25th consecutive month of declining wages in Japan in April.

As the saying goes, hope dies last. Investors remain hopeful that the regulator will actively combat the yen's depreciation, creating long-term factors for USD/JPY to decline. For now, it ended the week at 156.74.

The median forecast of analysts for the near term is as follows: 75% voted for the pair's decline and yen strengthening ahead of the BoJ meeting, while the remaining 25% took a neutral stance. None favoured the pair's upward movement. Technical analysis, however, presents a different picture: 100% of trend indicators on D1 are green. Among oscillators, 35% are green, 55% neutral-grey, and only 10% red. The nearest support level is around 156.00-156.25, followed by zones and levels at 155.45, 154.50-154.70, 153.10-153.60, 151.85-152.35, 150.80-151.00, 149.70-150.00, 148.40, and 147.30-147.60, with 146.50 being the furthest. The closest resistance is in the zone of 157.05-157.15, then 157.70-158.00, 158.60, and 160.00-160.20.

Noteworthy events in the coming week include Monday, 10 June, when Japan's Q1 2024 GDP data will be released, and, of course, Friday, 14 June, when the Bank of Japan's Governing Council will make decisions on future monetary policy. However, like the Fed, the yen interest rate is likely to remain unchanged.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: What Drives and Will Drive Bitcoin Upwards


The launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in January caused an explosive price increase for the leading cryptocurrency. On 12 March, inflows into these funds reached $1 billion, and by 13 March, BTC/USD set a new all-time high, rising to $73,743. Then came a lull, followed by a post-halving correction, and finally, growth resumed in May. Early last week, net inflows into BTC-ETFs amounted to $887 million, the second largest in these funds' history. As a result, BTC/USD broke the $70,000 level and recorded a local high at $71,922.

Young whales (holding over 1,000 BTC) demonstrated noticeable accumulation, adding $1 billion daily to their wallets. CryptoQuant's head, Ki Young Ju, notes that their current behaviour resembles 2020. At that time, consolidation around $10,000 lasted about six months, after which the price increased 2.5 times in three months. Key representatives of these young whales include major institutional investors from the US, who accounted for a third of all capital inflows into spot BTC-ETFs in Q1 (about $4 billion) from companies with over $100 million in assets under management.

Besides BTC-ETFs, the recent growth was significantly influenced by April's halving. The Hash Ribbons indicator is giving an "optimal signal" to buy digital gold in the coming weeks, indicating a resumption of the asset's rally, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards. The metric shows miner capitulation that began two weeks ago. This period occurs when the 30-day moving average of the hash rate falls below the 60-day rate.

According to Edwards, miner capitulation happens roughly once a year, typically due to operational halts, bankruptcies, takeovers, or, as in this case, halving. The halving of the block reward makes equipment unprofitable, leading to its shutdown and hash rate decline. The last miner capitulation was in September 2023, when bitcoin traded around $25,000.

In the event of a new growth impulse, Edwards predicts the next medium-term target will be $100,000. However, he warns that summer traditionally sees a lull in financial markets, so the upward impulse might be delayed.

Wall Street legend and Factor LLC head Peter Brandt highlights the "remarkable symmetry" of market cycles, with halving halving the weeks between the bottom and the peak. If Brandt's model is correct, BTC should reach a peak between $130,000-160,000 by September next year.

Venture investor Chamath Palihapitiya offers a much more optimistic forecast. Analysing bitcoin's post-halving dynamics, he notes the cryptocurrency achieved its greatest growth 12-18 months after the event. Palihapitiya predicts that if the growth trajectory after the third halving is repeated, bitcoin's price could reach $500,000 by October 2025. Using the average figures of the last two cycles, the target is $1.14 million.

For the coming weeks, analyst Rekt Capital believes digital gold will need to confidently overcome the $72,000-$73,000 resistance zone to enter a "parabolic growth phase." Popular cryptocurrency expert Ali Martinez forecasts BTC will likely test the $79,600 price range. AI PricePredictions suggests that bitcoin could not only firmly establish above the critical $70,000 mark but also continue growing, reaching $75,245 by the end of June. This prediction is based on technical analysis indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Bollinger Bands (BB), and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

Two catalysts could drive the upcoming growth of the crypto market: the launch of spot exchange-traded funds based on Ethereum after SEC approval of S-1 applications, and the US presidential elections. According to Bloomberg exchange analyst James Seyffart, the SEC might approve the applications by mid-June, although it could take "weeks or months." JPMorgan experts believe the SEC's decision on ETH-ETFs was politically motivated ahead of the US presidential elections. These elections themselves are the second catalyst for a bull rally.

A recent Harris Poll survey, sponsored by BTC-ETF issuer Grayscale, found that geopolitical tensions and inflation are prompting more American voters to consider bitcoin. The survey, which included over 1,700 potential US voters, revealed that 77% believe presidential candidates should at least have some understanding of cryptocurrencies. Additionally, 47% plan to include cryptocurrencies in their investment portfolios, up from 40% last year. Notably, 9% of elderly voters reported increased interest in bitcoin and other crypto assets following BTC-ETF approval. According to NYDIG, the total cryptocurrency community in the US currently numbers over 46 million citizens, or 22% of the adult population.

Evaluating this situation, Wences Casares, Argentine entrepreneur and CEO of venture company Xapo, believes the US could be one of the first to adopt a dual currency system. In this case, the dollar would be used for transactions with everyday goods and services, while cryptocurrency would be a store of value.

At the time of writing, the evening of Friday, 7 June, BTC/USD trades at $69,220. The total crypto market capitalisation stands at $2.54 trillion ($2.53 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose from 73 to 77 points over the week, moving from the Greed zone to the Extreme Greed zone.

In conclusion, the forecast for the next potential candidate for a spot ETF launch in the US after bitcoin and Ethereum. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes it will be Solana, which showed impressive results over the past year. At the end of 2023, SOL was around $21 but exceeded $200 by March 2024, showing nearly tenfold growth. Currently, SOL is around $172 and ranks fifth in market capitalisation. Given Solana's current position, Novogratz is confident this altcoin has a good chance of being included in the pool of spot ETFs. Recently, BKCM investment company CEO Brian Kelly expressed a similar view.


NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

May Results: Top 3 NordFX Traders' Monthly Profit Approaches $200,000

The brokerage company NordFX has summarized the trading results of its clients for May 2024. The performance of social trading services, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit earned by the company's IB partners were also evaluated.

- The leading trader for the month is from Western Asia, account No. 1773XXX, with a profit of $86,999. This impressive result was achieved through gold (XAU/USD) transactions.
- The second place goes to another trader from Western Asia, account No. 1771XXX, who earned $78,556 not only from gold (XAU/USD) but also from EUR/USD trades.
- In third place is a trader from Southeast Asia, account No. 1734XXX, who earned $30,640 in May through transactions involving XAU/USD, EUR/JPY, and USD/JPY.

The following situation has developed in NordFX's passive investment services:

- In the PAMM service showcase, we continue to monitor the activity of the manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO. Their account, KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA, can be considered a veteran, having been opened in January 2021. Over 1,223 days, it has faced many serious challenges. A critical date was November 15, 2022, when the manager decided to close loss-making positions. The drawdown then was almost 43%, but the account was saved, and the profit now exceeds 100% again.

- In CopyTrading, we have repeatedly highlighted the signal yahmat-forex, which has shown a 353% return over 344 days with a maximum drawdown of 47%. Another signal, NordFXSrilanka, reached a 36% profit over 145 days. Although not as high, it significantly exceeds bank deposit rates. This signal stands out for its maximum drawdown, which has not exceeded 10% throughout its duration. Among startups in CopyTrading, the signal copyfx1 is noteworthy. In 49 days of operation, specifically since April 11, 2024, it has shown a 98% profit with a very moderate drawdown of less than 16%. Despite these impressive achievements, it is important to remind that past results do not guarantee future performance and that trading in financial markets is risky. Therefore, market participants should exercise extreme caution and always adhere to money management principles to avoid losing funds.

Among NordFX IB partners, the TOP-3 is as follows:

- The highest commission of the month, amounting to 22,795 USD, was awarded to a partner from Western Asia, account No. 1645XXX;
- The second place was taken by a partner from Southern Asia, account No. 1718XXX, who received 8,362 USD;
- Completing the top three is their compatriot, account No. 1682XXX, who earned 8,233 USD in May.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 03 – 07 June 2024

EUR/USD: Awaiting a Turbulent Week

Recall that Monday, 27 May was a holiday in the US. However, on Tuesday, dollar bulls took control, and the DXY Index started to rise, bolstered by a significant increase in the US Consumer Confidence Index (from 97.5 to 102.0 against a forecast of 96.0). Consequently, EUR/USD moved southward.

Pressure on the euro was also due to expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) from 4.50% to 4.25% at its meeting on 06 June. This intention was confirmed by the head of the Bank of Finland, Olli Rehn, who stated on Monday that he considered it timely to transition to dovish rhetoric in June. Similar opinions were expressed by his colleague François Villeroy de Galhau, head of the Bank of France, and on Tuesday, 28 May, by Robert Holzmann, head of the Bank of Austria.

Unlike the dovish stance of European officials, representatives of the Federal Reserve (Fed) take a more stringent position and want to ensure that US inflation is steadily moving towards the 2.0% target.

Recall that the report released on 15 May by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased from 0.4% to 0.3% month-on-month (m/m) against a forecast of 0.4%. Year-on-year, inflation also fell from 3.5% to 3.4%. Retail sales demonstrated an even stronger decline, dropping from 0.6% to 0.0% m/m (forecast was 0.4%). These data indicated that although inflation is resisting in some areas, it is generally declining. If previously market participants expected the first rate cut at the end of 2024 or even early 2025, after the publication of this data, talks about a possible Fed rate cut already this autumn resumed. Before the release of the preliminary US GDP data, the probability of a rate cut in September was 41%.

The report published on Thursday, 30 May by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that, according to preliminary data, US economic growth in Q1 slowed significantly to an annualized rate of 1.3%, below the forecast of 1.6% and Q4 2023's figure of 3.4%.

Experts attribute the weak GDP growth at the beginning of this year mainly to the dynamics of consumer spending. In Q1, consumer spending increased by 2.0%, not the previously expected 2.5%. The US Department of Commerce's revised data also changed the assessment of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which excludes energy and food prices. At the end of Q1, the figure was 3.6%, not 3.7%. Analysts believe that this decline in all indicators was caused by a combination of factors: the depletion of funds accumulated by the population during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed's cycle of monetary tightening, and restrained income growth.

Against this backdrop, the dollar weakened slightly, and EUR/USD moved north. It received another bullish impulse after Eurostat presented on Friday, 31 May, a preliminary estimate of inflation in the Eurozone, which accelerated for the first time this year. Thus, the annual growth rate of consumer prices (CPI) in May was 2.6% compared to 2.4% in April, the lowest since November last year. The consensus forecast expected inflation to accelerate only to 2.5%. Core inflation (CPI Core), which excludes energy and food prices, also increased from 2.7% in April to 2.9% in May (forecast was 2.8%). This was a wake-up call for investors who had hoped that the ECB would not only cut rates once this year but continue to do so.

Towards the end of the working week, market attention focused on US consumer market data. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, inflation in the country, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, remained stable in April at 2.7% y/y. The Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.8% y/y, matching the forecast. Other report details showed that personal incomes rose by 0.3% m/m in April, while personal spending increased by 0.2%.

After these data, the DXY Dollar Index was under slight pressure, and EUR/USD received a third bullish impulse. However, it did not last long, and ultimately, after all these fluctuations, EUR/USD returned to the Pivot Point of the last two and a half weeks, finishing at 1.0848. Regarding the analysts' forecast for the near future, as of the evening of 31 May, all of them (100%) voted for the dollar to strengthen. This forecast is understandable given the expected ECB decision on a rate cut on 06 June. But what if it doesn't happen? Or perhaps this forecast has already been priced into the market? In that case, instead of the dollar strengthening, we could see the opposite reaction.

All trend indicators on D1 are 100% green, while only 50% of oscillators are green, with 15% red and 35% neutral-grey.

The nearest support for the pair lies in the 1.0830-1.0840 zone, followed by 1.0800-1.0810, 1.0725-1.0740, 1.0665-1.0680, 1.0600-1.0620. Resistance zones are in the regions of 1.0880-1.0895, 1.0925-1.0940, 1.0980-1.1010, 1.1050, 1.1100-1.1140.

The upcoming week seems to be very eventful and volatile. On Monday, 03 June, and Wednesday, 05 June, the US Manufacturing and Services PMI data will be released. On 04, 06, and 07 June, there will be a slew of statistics from the US labour market, including Friday's crucial data on the unemployment rate and the number of new non-farm jobs (NFP). The most turbulent day of the week, however, is likely to be Thursday, 06 June. On this day, retail sales data for the Eurozone will be released first, followed by the ECB meeting. The market will be focused not only on the ECB's rate decision but also on the subsequent press conference and comments on future monetary policy.

GBP/USD: Foggy Times, Foggy Forecasts

We've previously written that the prospects for the British currency, as well as the national economy, look rather foggy. The Business Activity Index (PMI) showed a decline, and not just it. Much of the pessimism is related to the sharp drop in retail sales in April, which fell by 2.7% y/y compared to the previous growth rate of 0.4%. Additional uncertainty comes from the fact that snap parliamentary elections are scheduled for 04 July. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stated that "economic instability is just the beginning." This sounds frightening, doesn't it? If this is just the beginning, what lies ahead? Surprisingly, despite this situation, the pound has been strengthening since 22 April. During this period, GBP/USD rose by 500 points and on 28 May recorded a local maximum at the round figure of 1.2800.

Regarding the timing of the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate cut, everything also seems as foggy as the Thames mist. JP Morgan (JPM) analysts, while adhering to their forecast for a rate cut in August, warn that "the risks have clearly shifted towards a later reduction. The question now is whether the Bank of England will be able to ease its policy at all this year." Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and HSBC strategists have also adjusted their rate cut forecasts, moving the date from June to August.

GBP/USD ended the week at 1.2741. Economists at Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB) believe that the current strengthening of the British currency has ended. UOB considers that over the next 1-3 weeks, "the pound is likely to trade with a downward bias, but a more significant pullback would require breaking below 1.2670. On the other hand, if the pound breaks above 1.2770 (the 'strong resistance' level), it would indicate that it will likely trade within a range rather than pulling back lower."

The median forecast of analysts for the near term is as follows: 75% voted for the pair to move south, while the remaining 25% voted for a northward movement.

As for technical analysis, unlike the experts, all 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 point north, although 15% of the latter signal overbought conditions. If the pair continues to fall, support levels and zones are at 1.2670-1.2700, 1.2575-1.2600, 1.2540, 1.2445-1.2465, 1.2405, 1.2300-1.2330. If the pair rises, it will encounter resistance at levels 1.2760, 1.2800-1.2820, 1.2885-1.2900.

No significant economic statistics are scheduled to be released in the UK next week.

USD/JPY: A Very Calm Week


The past week was surprisingly calm for the yen. USD/JPY moved within a super-narrow sideways channel of 156.60-157.00 for the first half of the week, but then, amid US data and Japanese macro statistics, the trading range expanded slightly to 156.36-157.70. Compared to the price swings at the end of April and early May, it's hard to believe this is the same currency pair. Interestingly, Japanese financial authorities have not officially confirmed whether they conducted intensive yen purchases on 29 April and 1 May to support its exchange rate. However, Bloomberg reports that comparing deposits at the Bank of Japan suggests that around ¥9.4 trillion ($60 billion) might have been spent on these currency interventions, a new monthly record for such financial operations.

However, if this $60 billion helped, it was only slightly – the dollar has already recovered half of its losses. Since interest rates in the US and Europe have not yet decreased, and the yen rate remains extremely low at 0.1%, officials from the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are trying to buy time until this gap starts to narrow. Comments from BoJ board member Seiji Adachi, who stated on 30 May that the Japanese central bank leaders could raise the interest rate, provided some support for the yen. However, the question of when this might happen remains open, and officials are reluctant to answer. In his traditional speech on Friday, 31 May, Japan's Minister of Finance, Shunichi Suzuki, reiterated that exchange rates should reflect fundamental indicators and that he would respond appropriately to excessive movements.

On Friday, 31 May, a block of important macroeconomic statistics on the state of the Japanese economy was released. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tokyo showed that inflation rose to 2.2% y/y in May. In April, this figure was at 1.8%, matching a 26-month low. Core inflation in Tokyo also rose to 1.9% from 1.6% y/y, and the CPI excluding volatile food and energy prices increased from 1.8% to 2.2% y/y. (It should be noted that inflation in Tokyo is usually higher than the nationwide figures, which are published three weeks later. Therefore, the Tokyo CPI is a preliminary but not final indicator of inflation dynamics at the national level.)

The current rise in inflation could increase confidence in future BoJ monetary policy tightening. However, the fear of low inflation and a sharp yen appreciation deters the BoJ from raising the interest rate and narrowing the gap with other major global currencies' rates. A strong yen would harm national exporters. The decline in industrial production, which fell by -0.1% in April both month-on-month and year-on-year, does not encourage borrowing costs to rise.

The last note of the week for USD/JPY was struck at 157.25. United Overseas Bank (UOB) analysts believe that in the next 1-3 weeks, "the dollar has the potential for growth, but given the weak upward momentum, any advancement is likely to be slow. The 157.50 level might be difficult to overcome, and resistance at 158.00 is unlikely to be reached in the near future."

Speaking of the average forecast of experts, only 20% indicate a southward direction, while the remaining 80% adopt a neutral position and look east. Technical analysis tools show no such doubts or disagreements. Thus, 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 point north, with 15% already in the overbought zone. It should be noted that if the green/north color of the indicators for the euro and the British pound indicates their strengthening, in the case of the yen, it conversely indicates its weakening. Therefore, traders may find it interesting to pay attention to the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY pairs, whose dynamics have been impressive lately.

The nearest support level is in the area of 156.25-156.60, followed by zones and levels at 155.50-155.90, 153.10-153.60, 151.85-152.35, 150.80-151.00, 149.70-150.00, 148.40, 147.30-147.60, 146.50. The nearest resistance is in the 157.40 zone, followed by 157.70-158.00, 158.60, and 160.00-160.20.

No significant events or publications regarding the state of the Japanese economy are expected next week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bullish and Bearish Ethereum Prospects

For the second week, market participants' attention has been focused on the main altcoin. On 23 May, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 19b-4 applications from eight issuers of spot exchange-traded funds based on Ethereum. (According to JP Morgan experts, this was dictated not by a desire to support digital assets but by a political decision aimed at supporting Joe Biden ahead of the US presidential elections.) Whatever the true reason for this regulatory move, everyone is now interested in where Ethereum prices will go.

The newborn ETH-ETFs can only start trading after the SEC approves the S-1 applications. According to Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, this could take "weeks or months," although it is very likely to happen in mid-June. According to DeFiance Capital CEO Arthur Cheong, Ethereum's price could rise to $4,500 even before trading begins. CCData analysts believe that within 100 days of the launch of ETH-ETFs, the price could reach $5,000 per coin. This forecast is based on linear regression and the price statistics of bitcoin after the launch of spot BTC-ETFs. CCData's analysis assumes that inflows into similar Ethereum funds will be at least 50% of inflows into Bitcoin-ETFs, which means about $3.9 billion over a 100-day period.

Popular analyst Lark Davis has forecasted future growth for bitcoin to $150,000 and Ethereum to $15,000, explaining such a sharp price increase by the emerging market dynamics. The main reason for growth, Davis also cites spot BTC-ETFs, to which ETH-ETFs will now join. This will further fuel the cryptocurrency market's enthusiasm. Currently, spot BTC-ETFs hold 1,002,343 coins (≈ $68 billion), which is about 5% of the circulating supply of the flagship asset. Davis believes this impressive figure clearly indicates growing recognition of cryptocurrency and interest from institutional investors, especially from the US.

Strike CEO Jack Mallers predicts that during the ongoing bull rally, bitcoin could reach $250,000 and possibly rise in price to $1 million. On a podcast with Pomp Investments founder Anthony Pompliano, Mallers explained his bold forecast by stating that bitcoin is still at an early stage of development. According to him, the bond market is currently facing problems, so central banks may inject a significant amount of liquidity into the financial system to stabilize it. This liquidity influx will trigger an increase in the value of risky assets, including the leading cryptocurrency.

Jack Mallers disagrees with the notion that bitcoin is a bubble or a tool for speculation. The asset is becoming increasingly popular among financial giants on Wall Street, and its limited supply of 21 million coins makes BTC highly resistant to inflation, unlike fiat currencies and gold. "Bitcoin can be called the hardest form of money – thanks to the fixed issuance schedule and halvings every four years. The release rate of new coins gradually decreases, thereby increasing bitcoin's long-term value," argued the Strike CEO.

Analysts from financial investment company Motley Fool also target a six-figure number. They suggested that bitcoin's rate could rise to $400,000 and possibly even reach $1 million. The reason, which has been mentioned many times, is the influx of money from institutional investors through spot ETFs. Motley Fool analysts noted that more and more pension funds and hedge funds, managing multi-billion dollar sums, are entering the bitcoin market. Thanks to cryptocurrency ETFs, they can easily include bitcoin (and soon Ethereum) in their investment portfolios.

According to analysts, around 700 investment companies have already invested in such funds. Nevertheless, the share of institutional investors in bitcoin-ETFs is currently only about 10% of the total. Motley Fool estimates that if financial institutions invest about 5% of their assets in bitcoin, the market capitalization of the first cryptocurrency could exceed $7 trillion, which explains its forecasted rate of $400,000.

Considerably less optimism was heard in the forecast of Bloomberg senior analyst Mike McGlone. According to him, bitcoin's volatility leaves it trailing gold and the US dollar in investment appeal. Furthermore, he believes that stocks will soon crash amid the expected recession, but BTC will suffer even more than the stock market. McGlone emphasized that the Tether (USDT) stablecoin, pegged to the US dollar, typically trades twice as much per day as bitcoin. "I can access the US dollar anywhere in the world from my phone using Tether. Tether is the number one trading token. It's the number one cryptocurrency for trading. It's the dollar. The whole world has moved to the dollar. Why? Because it's the least bad of all fiat currencies," the Bloomberg expert stated.

While Mike McGlone merely downgraded bitcoin's attractiveness, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson simply buried it. He equated bitcoin to a religion and stated that the industry has outgrown its dependence on it. According to Hoskinson, "the industry no longer needs bitcoin to survive." He pointed out critical threats to the leading cryptocurrency, including insufficient adaptability and dependence on the Proof-of-Work algorithm.

Franklin Templeton analysts, on the contrary, consider L2 protocols, along with Ordinals, Runes, and DeFi primitives, as one of the main drivers of bitcoin's innovation revival. Strike CEO Jack Mallers defended the first cryptocurrency. According to him, the Lightning Network, created for instant and cheap transactions, a second-layer solution based on the BTC blockchain, can further increase the demand for the first cryptocurrency. Mallers believes that thanks to this, bitcoin can be used for everyday purchases, such as paying for a cup of coffee. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes called the native token of the Cardano blockchain (ADA) "dog shit" due to its low use in protocols.

As of the time of writing this review on the evening of Friday, 31 May, ADA is trading at 0.45 USD per coin, while bitcoin and Ethereum are faring significantly better: BTC/USD is trading at $67,600, and ETH/USD at $3,790. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.53 trillion ($2.55 trillion a week ago). The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index remained almost unchanged over 7 days, staying in the Greed zone at 73 points (74 a week ago).

It should be noted that ETH/USD failed to break through the $4,000 resistance this past week. The local maximum was recorded on Monday, 27 May, at $3,974. The lack of an immediate pump is explained by the fact that everyone who wanted to buy Ethereum in anticipation of the SEC's historic decision already did so. Meanwhile, according to some analysts, there is a high probability that immediately after the launch of the long-awaited spot exchange funds, Ethereum will enter a deep drawdown, similar to what happened in January with bitcoin. Then, over 12 days, it fell by 21%.

One of the key reasons for BTC's drawdown at that time was the unlocking of GBTC fund assets from Grayscale, which was converted into a spot fund from a trust. It began losing investments daily at a rate of $500 million. It is possible that something similar could happen with Ethereum, where Grayscale's ETHE fund holds $11 billion worth of ETH. As soon as this fund is converted into a spot fund and its assets are unlocked, short-term investors might start taking profits, potentially causing ETH/USD to fall to the strong support zone of $2,900-3,200.

Pessimists among bearish factors also cite the uncertain legal status of the altcoin, as the SEC has not yet clearly defined whether ETH is a commodity or a security. Additionally, the regulator has many complaints about the staking program.

Staking is a way to earn cryptocurrency by "locking" a certain amount of coins in a wallet on the Proof of Stake (PoS) algorithm to support the network. In return, the user receives rewards in the form of additional coins. According to Wall Street legend Peter Brandt, "the biggest disasters in the cryptocurrency sphere that are yet to happen will be related to staking." The expert noted that such assets as Ethereum are often rented out to earn such income, often in the form of interest, which strongly reminds him of collapsed financial pyramids. As staking becomes more widespread, Brandt warned, it could attract increased attention from central banks, treasuries, and other authorities. This could lead to tighter regulation, significantly altering the crypto space and potentially resulting in the cessation of staking and bankruptcies for those involved.


NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 27 – 31 May 2024

EUR/USD: The Battle of Europe and US PMIs

Overall, the past week favoured the dollar, but the advantage over the European currency was minimal. If you look at where the EUR/USD pair was on 15 May, it returned to this zone on 24 May, regaining the losses of recent days. Recall that the report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released on 15 May showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased from 0.4% to 0.3% month-on-month (m/m), against a forecast of 0.4%. On an annual basis, inflation also fell from 3.5% to 3.4%. Retail sales volume demonstrated an even more significant decline, from 0.6% to 0.0% month-on-month (forecast 0.4%). These data indicated that inflation in the country, though resistant in certain areas, is still on the decline. At that moment, there were renewed discussions in the market about a possible rate cut by the Fed as early as this autumn. As a result, the Dollar Index (DXY) went down, and EUR/USD went up. Stock indices S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached record highs.

The most volatile day of the past week was Thursday, 23 May. Preliminary business activity data in the Eurozone exceeded expectations, strengthening the euro and lifting the pair to 1.0860. In Germany, the main locomotive of the European economy, the Manufacturing PMI rose from 42.5 to 45.4 points (forecast 43.2). This is still below the 50.0-point threshold separating decline from growth, but the trend is clearly positive. The Services PMI reached its highest level since June last year, hitting 53.9 against a forecast of 53.5 and a previous value of 53.2.

Germany's Composite PMI increased from 50.6 to 52.2 (market expectations were 51.0). Overall, business activity statistics in the Eurozone were also positive. The Composite PMI updated multi-month highs and, with a forecast of 52.0, actually reached 52.3 points (previous value 51.7).

However, the euro bulls' joy was short-lived. Later on Thursday, similar preliminary data on the US economy were released. They showed that business activity in the country's private sector grew at the highest rate in the past two years. The Manufacturing PMI rose from 50.0 to 50.9 points, and the Composite PMI jumped from 51.3 to 54.8 in a month. Market expectations were much lower, at the previous level of 51.3, so such a sharp rise signalled a surge in the DXY to 105.05 and a fall in the EUR/USD pair to 1.0804, as the likelihood of a rate cut in September decreased.

But the bears' joy was also short-lived. The GDP data released on Friday, 24 May, for Q1 2024 in Germany showed that the country's economy is saying goodbye to recession and moving into the growth zone. After a decline of -0.3%, GDP increased by 0.5%, resulting in a net growth of +0.2%.

In the end, after all these fluctuations, EUR/USD returned to the Pivot Point of the past one and a half weeks, closing at 1.0845. As for analysts' forecasts for the near future, as of the evening of 24 May, most (65%) expect the dollar to strengthen, 20% expect it to weaken, and the remaining 15% are neutral. All trend indicators on D1 are green, while 60% of oscillators are also green. Another 15% are red, and 25% are neutral grey. The nearest support for the pair is in the zones of 1.0830-1.0840, 1.0800-1.0810, then 1.0765, 1.0710-1.0725, 1.0665-1.0680, and 1.0600-1.0620. Resistance zones are located at 1.0880-1.0895, 1.0925-1.0940, 1.0980-1.1010, 1.1050, and 1.1100-1.1140.

The following week's calendar highlights Tuesday, 28 May, when the US Consumer Confidence Index will be announced. On the next day, 29 May, data on consumer inflation (CPI) in Germany will be released. On Thursday, 30 May, preliminary US GDP data for Q1 2024 will be published. The last working day of the week and the month might be quite eventful. On Friday, 31 May, Germany's retail sales volumes, preliminary inflation indicators (CPI) in the Eurozone, and the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index will be announced. Traders should also note that Monday, 27 May, is a public holiday in the US, as the country observes Memorial Day.

GBP/USD: Uncertain Times for the Pound

The prospects for the British currency, as well as the national economy as a whole, are ambiguous. Additional uncertainty is brought by the fact that early parliamentary elections are scheduled for 4 July. As Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stated, "economic instability is just the beginning. [...] The time has come for Britain to make a choice. [...] Uncertain times require a clear plan and bold actions." However, what these "bold actions" will be remains unknown. 

The macro statistics released last week did not add clarity. The preliminary Services PMI in the UK decreased from 55.0 to 52.9 points in May, against expectations of 54.7. And although in the manufacturing sector, this figure increased from 49.1 to 51.3, the Composite PMI stood at 52.8, below both the previous value of 54.1 and market expectations of 54.0.

As the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed, published on Friday, 24 May, retail sales in the country fell by -2.3% (m/m) in April, against a forecast of -0.4% and a result of -0.2% in March. The annual retail sales volume decreased by -2.7% compared to the previous result of -0.4%, and core retail sales fell by -3.0% (y/y) against 0% a month earlier, with all figures significantly below forecasts.

In such a situation, experts' opinions regarding the timing of the Bank of England's (BoE) rate cut also do not provide clear guidance. Analysts at JP Morgan (JPM) stick to their previous forecast of a rate cut in August but are cautious, citing still high consumer price inflation (CPI). "We adhere to our forecast [...] but believe that the risks have clearly shifted towards a later cut. Now it is a question of whether the Bank of England will be able to ease its policy at all this year." Strategists at Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and HSBC have also shifted their rate cut forecasts, moving the date from June to August for now. But this is only "for now"...

The maximum of the past week for GBP/USD was recorded at 1.2760. According to economists from Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB), the pair's upward momentum has slowed, and the likelihood of the pound rising to 1.2800 is decreasing. UOB believes that in the next 1-3 weeks, the British currency will trade in the range of 1.2685 to 1.2755.

The week ended at 1.2737. The median forecast of analysts for the near future is as follows: 60% voted for the pair's movement to the south, 20% for the northern direction, and 20% preferred neutrality. As for technical analysis, all trend indicators and oscillators on D1 point north, but a third of the latter signal overbought conditions. In case of further decline, the pair will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2695, 1.2635, 1.2575-1.2600, 1.2540, 1.2445-1.2465, 1.2405, 1.2300-1.2330. In case of growth, the pair will meet resistance at levels 1.2760, 1.2800-1.2820, 1.2885-1.2900.

No significant economic data releases for the United Kingdom are scheduled for the coming week. However, it should be noted that Monday, 27 May, is a bank holiday in the UK.

USD/JPY: Calmness, Ladies and Gentlemen, Just Calmness!

For such a super-volatile pair as USD/JPY, the past week was surprisingly calm. There were no currency interventions, and verbal interventions were as usual – lots of words, little action. Thus, Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki once again expressed concern about rising prices caused by the weak national currency. According to Suzuki, one of the main goals of monetary authorities is to achieve wage growth exceeding inflation. "On the other hand," the minister added, "if prices remain high, achieving this goal will be difficult." In general, as usual, the government is closely monitoring the situation, understanding that everything is complicated, and therefore ... will continue to monitor.

Based on this contemplative policy, despite the GDP decline in Q1, on Thursday, 23 May, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced that it left the issuance volumes of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at the previous level. According to BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, "the economic outlook has not changed." The BoJ's view of the global economy has also not changed significantly. In general, calmness, ladies and gentlemen, just calmness!

Against this positive background, USD/JPY pair reacted only to the yield of US Treasury bonds and the dynamics of the Dollar Index (DXY). As a result, starting the five-day period around 155.70, it gradually moved up and ended it at 156.96. Analysts at United Overseas Bank (UOB) believe that given the weak upward pressure, the pair's growth in the next 1-3 weeks will be slow, and the barrier at 157.50 may prove to be a tough nut to crack. In their opinion, a price breakthrough above 157.00 is possible, but the pair is unlikely to consolidate above this level. The next resistance at 157.50 is unlikely to be threatened. UOB estimates that support is at 156.40, followed by 156.10. If USD/JPY falls below 155.60, it will indicate that the slight upward pressure has weakened, write the bank's economists.  

Speaking of the average forecast, only 20% of analysts point south, 40% north, and another 40% east. Technical analysis tools are clearly devoid of such disagreements. Therefore, all 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 point north, with 20% of the latter already in the overbought zone. It should be noted that while the green/north color of indicators regarding the British pound indicates its strengthening, in relation to the yen, it signals its weakening. Therefore, we advise paying attention to the GBP/JPY pair, whose dynamics have been very impressive lately.

The nearest support level is around 156.25, followed by zones and levels of 155.25-155.45, 154.60, 153.60-153.90, 153.00-153.15, 151.85-152.35, 150.80-151.00, 149.70-150.00, 148.40, 147.30-147.60, and 146.50. The nearest resistance is in the zone of 157.20, followed by 157.80-158.00, 158.45, 159.40, and 160.20-160.30.

From the events of the upcoming week, we recommend noting the speech of the Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Monday, 27 May, as well as the publication of consumer inflation (CPI) data in the Tokyo region on Friday, 31 May.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: A Week Under the Ethereum Flag


In 2024, the crypto community began gradually forgetting the term "crypto winter." However, there was no talk of a "crypto spring" either. After the halving on 12 April, in the absence of a bull rally, small traders and speculators began selling off their coin reserves. According to The Block Research, the rate of opening new BTC wallets fell to a six-year low. However, the whales buying digital gold for the future prevented a complete collapse in prices.

And finally, at the end of the calendar spring, it seems spring has come to the crypto market. And it was awakened by the Federal Reserve System (Fed) of the USA with its monetary policy. According to analysts, the surge in investments in digital assets was a response to the May consumer inflation (CPI) report in the US, which positively impacted the risk appetites of institutional investors.

According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds increased by $932 million from 13 to 17 May, after an inflow of $130 million the previous week. For the first time, there was an inflow of $18 million into Grayscale's ETF. This sharp increase in BTC-ETF investments, the highest in the last nine weeks, triggered a sharp rise in bitcoin on 20-21 May, approaching $72,000 for the first time since 09 April.

After bitcoin rose above $71,000, its price updated historical highs in the local currencies of several Asian and South American countries. According to CoinMarketCap, in Japan, BTC reached a record level of 11.2 million yen at the start of trading on 21 May. This is the first case where the flagship asset's price exceeded 11 million yen. Digital gold prices also peaked in Argentina, where the leading cryptocurrency reached 63.8 million Argentine pesos, slightly above the maximum on 14 March.

In the Philippines, one bitcoin briefly rose to 4.18 million pesos, the highest since mid-March 2024. In several other countries, BTC prices also equalled or were very close to mid-March's maximum prices: in the UK, Australia, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Egypt, Israel, Norway, India, South Korea, Taiwan, and Turkey.

However, the Fed and American macro statistics, having awakened the markets, also calmed them. After strong business activity data in the US, BTC/USD returned to the support zone of $67,000. Another (and probably the main) reason why bitcoin could not update its historical high was its main competitor, ethereum, which drew investors' attention. (More on this below).

QCP Capital expects bitcoin to reach $74,000 and update its ATH (All-Time High) in the coming months. According to the company's economists, institutional acceptance of cryptocurrency is accelerating, and improving conditions in the global economy create conditions for capital inflows into risky assets. The US presidential election, scheduled for 5 November 2024, is also starting to have a strong positive impact on the cryptocurrency market.

Cryptocurrency themes continue to strengthen in the pre-election rhetoric of candidates seeking to gain the votes of the crypto community, which, according to NYDIG, numbers more than 46 million citizens in the US, or 22% of the adult population. Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner of Dragonfly Capital, believes that in such a situation, the administration of President Joseph Biden will soon be forced to ease its policy regarding the digital asset industry. A complete turnaround is not to be expected, but a softening of the position will still occur, Qureshi said.

CNN has recently reported on upcoming debates between Biden and his competitor, Donald Trump. The incumbent president will have to answer a number of uncomfortable questions about the harsh policy towards the crypto industry, which led to the outflow of cryptocurrency capital, the closure of large companies, and high-profile lawsuits. From Donald Trump, who turned the topic of cryptocurrency into a weapon against his opponent, in addition to attacks for the current state of affairs, loud pre-election promises can be expected, which could lead to significant volatility in the crypto market. Possible participation of Elon Musk, who expressed willingness to become a moderator, and independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr., should enliven the debates, the first round of which is scheduled for 27 June, and the second for 10 September.

The main beneficiary of the past week was not bitcoin but ethereum. On Monday, 20 May, news reached the media that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) asked companies to update Form 19b-4 in applications for launching spot Ethereum ETFs in an accelerated manner. After these news, the financial agency Bloomberg immediately raised the chances of such funds being approved from 25% to 75%. Against this background, the leading altcoin quickly outpaced the flagship cryptocurrency in terms of growth rates.

The deadline for the first two applications from VanEck and Grayscale was Thursday, 23 May. Shortly before the X hour, ETH/USD reached $3,947, showing a growth of almost 30% in three days. According to Coinglass, the amount of liquidations and forced closures of short positions on crypto exchanges amounted to $340 million. A total of 78.8 thousand positions were liquidated, and the largest individual liquidation occurred on the HTX exchange for the ETH/USDT pair for $3.1 million.

The SEC did not disappoint expectations and on 23 May approved not two but a total of eight applications for the issuance of spot ETFs based on Ethereum and gave the go-ahead for trading and listing these funds on exchanges. According to Variant Investments Chief Legal Officer Jake Chervinsky, this step signals a "significant shift in US crypto policy, possibly more important than the ETFs themselves." This may also mean that recognizing ethereum as a commodity, the regulator will not categorize many other altcoins as securities. According to Rekt Capital, the market is already on the verge of an altcoin rally, the peak of which is expected in July.

Experts expect significant capital inflows after the listing of ETH-ETFs and believe that billions of dollars will be invested in derivatives in the first week after trading starts. Analysts from QCP Capital believe that the altcoin rate in the short term can rise to $4,000 and exceed $5,000 by the end of the year.

An even bolder forecast is given by Standard Chartered Bank economists. They expect capital inflows into such funds in the first year to range from $15 to $45 billion (2-9 million ETH). In this case, the fund's demand will lead to the asset's rate rising to $8,000 at a bitcoin rate of $150,000. Moreover, if market dynamics are positive, by 2025, the price of Ethereum will reach $14,000, and bitcoin's rate will increase to $200,000.

As of the evening of Friday, 24 May, BTC/USD is trading at $69,900, and ETH/USD at $3,735. The absence of an immediate pump and some drawdown of this pair on 23-24 May can be explained by the fact that everyone who wanted to has already managed to buy ethereums ahead of the SEC's historic decision. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.55 trillion ($2.42 trillion a week ago). The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index (Crypto Fear & Greed Index) has not changed and remains in the Greed zone at 74 points.

And in conclusion of the review, forecasts from Artificial Intelligence. The latest version of GPT-4o from OpenAI believes that the price of bitcoin on 1 August 2024 will be in the range of $76,348 to $89,108 "considering current market factors and historical trends." GPT-4o's competitor, the anthropic AI model Claude 3 Opus, has formed an even more optimistic vision, designating the range between $105,072 and $167,808 by the indicated date.


NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 20 – 24 May 2024

EUR/USD: Weak Inflation = Weak USD


The American currency suffered two significant blows last week. Although these were not knockdowns, let alone knockouts, these minor shocks pushed the DXY Dollar Index down from 105.26 to 104.20 points, and EUR/USD up from 1.0766 to 1.0895.

The first blow came on Tuesday, 14 May, from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Surprisingly, after his comments, the dollar should have strengthened, but instead, it faltered. Powell stated that the regulator's monetary policy is currently tight enough to eventually reduce inflation. However, he also mentioned that the Fed is not confident that inflation is rapidly decreasing and that it may take more time to reach the target level of 2.0%. One could conclude from this that the regulator is not planning to either raise or lower the interest rate.

The dollar's weakening at this moment is even more peculiar because Powell's comments were made against the backdrop of strong data on the US Producer Price Index (PPI), indicating industrial inflation growth. In April, this indicator increased by +0.5% on a monthly basis after falling by -0.1% in March (forecast +0.3%). The core index, excluding food and energy, showed growth from 2.1% to 2.4% (y/y).

We can only explain the dollar's decline in this situation with one reason. Market participants were possibly expecting that the Fed Chairman would at least hint that if inflation rises, they need to consider another rate hike. But since he did not say this, disappointment ensued.

What happened the next day seemed 100% logical. The report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday, 15 May, showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell from 0.4% to 0.3% (m/m) against a forecast of 0.4%. On an annual basis, inflation also dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%. Retail sales showed an even stronger decline, from 0.6% to 0.0% on a monthly basis (forecast 0.4%). These data indicated that although inflation in the country is resisting in some areas, it is generally declining.

As a result, talks about a possible Fed rate cut this year resurfaced. "These are the first weaker CPI data that the central bank [US] needs to lower rates this year," said Jason Pride, Glenmede's Director of Investment Strategy and Analysis. The likelihood that the rate will remain unchanged until the end of 2024 fell from 35% to 25%, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool. As a result, the DXY continued to fall, and the EUR/USD pair rose. Stock markets rallied, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record levels. There were 43 new 52-week highs and no new lows in the S&P 500, while the Nasdaq had 153 highs and 25 lows.

The dollar's weakening was halted by comments from Fed representatives at the end of the week. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) President Neel Kashkari stated that he is not confident that the current "tight monetary policy is having a dominant effect on inflation, so interest rates need to be maintained." New York FRB President John Williams said that one positive inflation report is not enough to neutralize the negative impact of the previous two, so it's not yet time to expect the Fed to start lowering rates soon.

As for the common European currency, Reuters writes that it is resisting a fall to parity with the dollar (1:1) due to a favourable economic backdrop and the monetary measures of the European Central Bank (ECB). The six-month low for EUR/USD was recorded on 16 April at 1.0600, against the backdrop of the Eurozone's fragile economy and in sharp contrast with the stable US economy. But gradually, business activity in Europe began to recover, and according to the April report, it grew even faster than on the other side of the Atlantic. This contributed to the positive dynamics of the euro. Reuters experts noted that the gap between economic indicators in Europe and the US is narrowing, providing some support to the euro.

EUR/USD closed the week at 1.0868. As for the analysts' forecast for the near future, as of the evening of 17 May, the majority (65%) expect the dollar to strengthen, 20% foresee further weakening, and the remaining 15% took a neutral stance. All trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are 100% coloured green, with a quarter of them signalling that the pair is overbought. The nearest support for the pair is located in the zones of 1.0815-1.0835, then 1.0710-1.0725, 1.0665-1.0680, 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0560, 1.0495-1.0515, 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0255, 1.0130, 1.0000. Resistance zones are found at 1.0880-1.0915, 1.0965-1.0980, 1.1015, 1.1050, and 1.1100-1.1140.

The schedule of the most important events for next week is as follows. On Tuesday, 21 May, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak. On Wednesday, 22 May, the publication of the minutes from the last FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Fed is of particular interest. The next day, as usual, we will learn about the number of initial jobless claims in the US, as well as receive preliminary data on business activity (PPI) in Germany, the Eurozone, and the United States. At the very end of the workweek, on Friday, 24 May, we will learn the GDP data of Germany for Q1 2024.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Weak USD = Strong BTC

"A week of reflection and uncertainty": this is how we described the previous review. On Wednesday, 15 May, this uncertainty was resolved in favour of the crypto market. As often happens, the reason for this was the Fed's monetary policy. The released inflation data in the US influenced market expectations regarding a rate cut. As a result, the American currency weakened, the DXY index went down, and investors' risk appetites increased. Stock indices reached historical highs, with the daily gain for BTC/USD exceeding 8%. ETH/USD also rose by 4.5%. However, this is not yet the long-awaited Bull Rally, and it is quite possible that once the situation with the dollar calms down, the growth of bitcoin and leading altcoins will cease. At least, this is the scenario many crypto market specialists predict.

According to Capriole Investment founder Charles Edwards, bitcoin is in a "deathly boring" stage. He believes that the current consolidation period may last from one to six months, during which the quotes will remain in a low-volatility range. This will continue until traders lose patience.

Sentiment will be most negative just before the end of the flat period, Edwards believes. "When you get tired of the sideways movement, common symptoms will include thoughts that the halving is already priced in and the bull market is over. […] Your symptoms and shorts will peak just before the mega-rally," predicts the head of Capriole Investment.

Galaxy Digital head Mike Novogratz also spoke about the consolidation of the crypto market, whose growth dried up three months after the launch of spot BTC-ETFs. In his opinion, until new circumstances or events lead to growth, the first cryptocurrency will trade in the range of $55,000 to $75,000.

Analyst Rekt Capital expressed a similar point of view. He believes that the threat of a bitcoin price drop after the halving has already passed. Drawing an analogy with the situation six years ago, he suggested that on 01 May, BTC hit a bottom around $56,000, and now calm will likely prevail until autumn, with the asset remaining in the accumulation zone. According to Rekt Capital's forecast, the exponential growth phase will begin in the autumn, during which the coin's value will reach new heights.

Bitfinex crypto exchange experts are somewhat more optimistic. They believe that the current lull may last only until the beginning of summer, and in Q3–Q4, growth will return. But everything depends on the actions of the US Fed. Bitfinex notes that the decline of the US currency from a six-month peak after the May meeting of the regulator and a weak employment report became a turning point in the trend. Now, the reduction in inflationary pressure in the US has been added. As a result, the weakening of the US currency could stimulate a rally in digital assets.

Where will this rally lead in the medium and long term? There are many answers to this question. Some predict the complete collapse and oblivion of bitcoin, while others insist on a price of $1 million per coin. Recently, Jack Dorsey, co-founder of Twitter (now X) and head of Block, joined the "millionaires' club" after CMCC Crest co-founder Willy Woo. He also expects bitcoin to surpass the $1 million mark by 2030, after which it will continue to grow, challenging traditional fiat currencies. The entrepreneur noted that a very interesting aspect of digital gold is the nature of its ecosystem and how it stimulates collective efforts to improve the network. "Aside from the founding story, the most amazing thing about bitcoin is that everyone [...] who makes any effort to improve it makes the whole ecosystem better, which drives the price up. This is an incredible movement. [...] It has taught me a lot," he explained.

Businessman, writer, and founder of Edelman Financial Services Ric Edelman believes that traditional international investors will do everything possible to diversify their portfolios. And if they all invest at least 1% of their funds in the first cryptocurrency, the bitcoin market volume will reach an unprecedented $7.4 trillion, and the asset price will soar to $420,000. The growth of the market capitalization will be facilitated by spot BTC-ETFs. According to Edelman, they cover a much broader investor base than traditional assets. "In addition, crypto ETFs are incredibly cheap. They are 20-25% cheaper than assets on Coinbase or other crypto exchanges. Plus, they are held in brokerage accounts. Bitcoin ETFs allow for traditional investment strategies such as rebalancing and dollar-cost averaging. There are also tax advantages," Edelman lists the advantages of such funds. "I am confident that bitcoin and ethereum ETFs will have a significant impact on the market in the long run," he stated.

However, this last assertion can be disputed. While BTC-ETFs are a reality, the situation with ETH-ETFs is not so simple. Many expected the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) to approve applications for the launch of ethereum funds in May. But this has not happened yet. Moreover, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas and securities lawyer Scott Johnson believe that the chances of approving spot ETH-ETFs are almost zero. In their opinion, the SEC is now considering the possibility of rejecting these funds' launch based on the fact that the applications were submitted with violations, as the fund shares are securities, not exchange-traded commodities.

The question of choosing between bitcoin and ethereum confronts many investors. The roles of these two cryptocurrencies differ, and this can significantly affect their profitability. Bitcoin is increasingly seen as digital gold, providing stability during times of economic uncertainty. This concept is supported by the observed post-halving volatility decrease, which was even lower than that of many companies in the S&P 500 index (Fidelity data).

Ethereum continues to push the boundaries of what is possible through technological innovations, including the recent Dencun update aimed at reducing fees and increasing scalability. However, these changes have once again made the network inflationary, nullifying the deflationary trend established after The Merge in 2022. As a result, ETH's volatility remains higher than BTC's.

According to ChatGPT, the artificial intelligence from OpenAI, the choice between these assets largely depends on individual investment strategy and risk tolerance. Bitcoin is generally better suited for investors seeking a relatively safe store of value and those new to cryptocurrencies. In contrast, Ethereum is better for those who believe in the future of blockchain technology. The main altcoin potentially offers higher rewards but also higher risks.

Investor and Eight founder Michaël van de Poppe has already made his choice. He admitted to selling all his bitcoins to buy altcoins. Van de Poppe believes that many of them are undervalued. And as soon as ETH prices start to rise, other alternative tokens will also go up. The expert believes that the altcoins he has chosen are likely to start growing earlier and faster than the market leader, allowing for greater profit than from investments in digital gold.

At the time of writing this review, the evening of Friday, 17 May, BTC/USD is trading at $66,835, and ETH/USD at $3,095. The total market capitalization of the crypto market is $2.42 trillion ($2.24 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen from 66 to 74 points but remains in the Greed zone.


NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 13 – 17 May 2024

EUR/USD: Medium-Term Outlook Favours the Dollar

Throughout the past week, EUR/USD exhibited mixed dynamics, primarily driven by expectations concerning potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). Statements by officials from both central banks, as well as economic macro-statistics, either heightened or lowered these expectations. 

The EUR/USD bullish rally commenced on 16 April from the 1.0600 mark, reaching a peak of 1.0811 on 3 May, after which growth stalled, starting the past week at 1.0762. On Monday, 6 May, statistics from the Eurozone provided some support to the common European currency. In April, the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 52.9 to 53.3, exceeding the forecast of 52.9. The Composite PMI, which includes the manufacturing sector and services, increased from 51.4 to 51.7. Germany's Composite PMI also showed positive dynamics, rising from 50.5 to 50.6. Consequently, business activity in the Eurozone reached its highest level in almost a year. Moreover, retail sales in the region showed significant growth, rising from -0.5% to +0.7% year-on-year.

This news backdrop suggests potential inflation growth, which in theory could deter the ECB from initiating a monetary policy easing. However, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane stated that the Executive Board of the bank has compelling arguments for a rate cut at the 6 June meeting. Another ECB representative, Lithuanian Central Bank head Gediminas Simkus, indicated that rate cuts should not be limited to June, suggesting it could happen thrice by the end of the year. However, while the likelihood of easing (QE) in June is near 100%, there is some uncertainty regarding further steps. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos admitted that the regulator is cautiously forecasting any trends beyond June.

In addition to ECB officials' statements supporting easing, statistics released on Tuesday, 7 May, also contributed. They showed that manufacturing orders in Germany, the locomotive of the European economy, decreased by 0.4% in March after a 0.8% decline in February. As a result, the EUR/USD pair's growth halted, pulling back to 1.0723.

The pair made another attempt to break through the strong resistance zone of 1.0790-1.0800 on Thursday, 9 May, when US initial jobless claims data was unexpectedly reported at 231K, much worse than the expected 210K. This coincided with a widespread negative session for US yields along the curve. The situation worsened as the unemployment data confirmed concerning statistics released on 3 May. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), non-farm payrolls (NFP) rose by just 175K in April, significantly below the March figure of 315K and market expectations of 238K. The employment report also showed an increase in unemployment from 3.8% to 3.9%.

Besides combating inflation, the Fed's other declared main goal is maximum employment. "If inflation remains stable and the labor market strong, it would be appropriate to delay rate cuts," stated Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Now, the strength of the labour market is in question. However, the Fed is likely to focus on fighting inflation, which is still far from the 2.0% target.

A key inflation indicator tracked by the Fed, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose from 2.5% to 2.7% in March. However, the ISM Manufacturing PMI fell below the key 50.0 mark, dropping from 50.3 to 49.2 points. Remember, a level of 50.0 separates economic growth from contraction. In such a situation, raising the interest rate is inadvisable, but lowering it is also not an option. This is exactly what the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the Fed did. At its meeting on Wednesday, 1 May, its members unanimously left the rate unchanged at 5.50%. This is the highest rate in 23 years, and the US central bank has kept it unchanged for six consecutive meetings.

The main scenario foresees the Fed beginning to review the rate towards a decrease no earlier than autumn, likely in September, with another cut by year-end. However, if US inflation does not decline or, worse, continues to rise, the regulator may abandon monetary policy easing until early 2025. Thus, considering the above, many analysts believe the medium-term advantage remains with the dollar, and EUR/USD is still attractive for sales with a horizon of several months.

The final point of the week for EUR/USD was at 1.0770, making the weekly result almost zero. Regarding the forecast for the near term, as of the evening of 10 May, it is maximally neutral: 50% expect dollar strengthening, and 50% expect its weakening. Trend indicators on D1 are equally divided: half are on the side of the reds, and half are on the side of the greens. Among oscillators, only 10% voted for the reds, another 10% remained neutral, and 80% voted for the greens (although a quarter of them are already signalling overbought conditions). The nearest support for the pair is located in the 1.0710-1.0725 zone, followed by 1.0650, 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0560, 1.0495-1.0515, 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Resistance zones are in the regions of 1.0795-1.0810, 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0965-1.0980, 1.1015, 1.1050, and 1.1100-1.1140.

In the coming week, on Tuesday, 14 May, consumer inflation data (CPI) in Germany and the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US will be released. Also scheduled for this day is a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The next day, Wednesday, 15 May, important indicators such as Consumer Price Index (CPI) and retail sales volumes in the United States will be published. On Thursday, 16 May, the traditional number of initial jobless claims in the US will be announced. And at the very end of the working week, on Friday, 17 May, we will learn the Eurozone CPI as a whole, which may influence the ECB's decision regarding the euro interest rate.

GBP/USD: Pound Remains Under Pressure but Holds On

At its meeting on Thursday, 9 May, the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee maintained the interest rate at 5.25%, the highest in 16 years. Economists polled by Reuters mostly expected borrowing costs to remain unchanged, with a committee vote ratio of 8 to 1. However, the vote was 7 to 2. During discussions, two committee members supported a rate cut to 5.0%, which market participants interpreted as a step towards the beginning of a policy easing cycle.

At the post-meeting press conference, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey expressed optimism, stating that the UK economy is moving in the right direction. Bailey also noted that “a rate cut next month is quite possible,” but he intends to wait for data on inflation, activity, and the labour market before making a decision. Chief Economist Huw Pill, although he joined the majority in voting to keep the rate unchanged, also expressed growing confidence that the time for a reduction is approaching. He added that “focusing only on the next Bank of England meeting [20 June] is somewhat unreasonable” and that “medium-term inflation forecasts do not necessarily signal rate movements at the next or subsequent meetings.”

Overall, the movement of the GBP/USD pair last week resembled that of the EUR/USD pair. The chart shows a distinct surge on Thursday, 9 May, triggered by data indicating a cooling US labour market. The pound was also supported by optimistic GDP data for the UK for Q1 2024 and manufacturing sector data for March.

GDP (quarter-on-quarter) rose by +0.6% after a decline of -0.3% in the previous quarter (forecast +0.4%). Additionally, the GDP grew by +0.2% year-on-year, recovering from a fall of -0.2%.

As with the euro, the pound is under pressure from the prospect of earlier monetary policy easing by the BoE compared to the Fed. However, the British currency ended the past week above the key 1.2500 level, at 1.2523. Moreover, 65% of analysts expect the pair not only to hold above this horizon but also to continue its growth. The remaining 35% voted for the pair's movement south. As for technical analysis, trend indicators on D1 are split 50-50. Among oscillators, only 10% recommend selling, 40% took a neutral position, and 50% recommend buying (10% of them signal overbought conditions). If the pair rises, it will encounter resistance at levels 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2695-1.2710, 1.2755-1.2775, 1.2800-1.2820, and 1.2885-1.2900. In case of a fall, it will face support levels and zones at 1.2490-1.2500, 1.2450, 1.2400-1.2410, 1.2300-1.2330, 1.2185-1.2210, and 1.2070-1.2110, 1.2035.

The upcoming week's calendar highlights Tuesday, 14 May, when data from the UK labour market will be released. Also of interest is the Inflation Report hearing scheduled for Wednesday, 15 May.

USD/JPY: $50 Billion Interventions Wasted?

It seems that until the Bank of Japan (BoJ) takes confident and clear steps to tighten its monetary policy, nothing will help the yen. At its meeting on 26 April, the board members of this regulator unanimously decided to leave the key rate and QE program parameters unchanged. Expectedly tough comments on the outlook were also absent. This inaction increased pressure on the national currency, sending the USD/JPY pair to new heights. It continued its cosmic saga, reaching a new 34-year high of 160.22. Following this, Japan's financial authorities finally decided on a double currency intervention. Although there was no official confirmation, experts estimate its total volume at $50 billion.

Did it help? Judging by the USD/JPY chart, not really. The pair headed north again last week. Unlike the euro and the British pound, the yen barely reacted even to weak US labour market data on Thursday, 9 May, only slowing its decline.                 

All this occurs amid endless statements from the Japanese Central Bank and Ministry of Finance about their readiness to take necessary measures to reduce speculative pressure on the national currency. The published minutes of the BoJ meeting show that most board members took a "hawkish" stance, calling for a rate hike. However, many analysts believe that the Bank of Japan will take only one such step in the second half of the year.

The last chord of the past five days sounded at 155.75. Economists at Singapore’s United Overseas Bank Limited (UOB) expect the USD/JPY pair to trade in the 154.00-157.20 range in the next 1-3 weeks. UOB also believes that the chances of it falling to 151.55 have significantly diminished. Overall, most experts (70%) simply shrug their shoulders in uncertainty. The remaining 30% persistently expect the yen to strengthen. As for technical analysis, 100% of trend indicators on D1 look north. Among oscillators, 50% are such, 15% point south, and 35% point east. Regarding support/resistance levels, traders should note that with such volatility, the slippage can reach many tens of points. The nearest support level is around 155.25, followed by 154.70, 153.90, 153.10, 151.85-152.25, 151.00, 150.00, after which come 146.50-146.90, 143.30-143.75, and 140.25-141.00. Resistance levels are 156.25, 157.00, 157.80-158.00, 158.60, 159.40, and 160.00-160.25.

Events of the upcoming week include the release on Thursday, 16 May, of preliminary GDP data for Japan for Q1 2024. No other significant publications regarding the Japanese economy are expected in the coming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: A Week of Reflection and Uncertainty


What will happen to bitcoin in the foreseeable future? It seems there is no clear answer to this question. Experts and influencers often point in opposite directions: some shoot for the stars, while others keep their eyes on the ground.

For instance, according to the founder of Pomp Investments, Anthony Pompliano, bitcoin is "stronger than ever." He concluded this based on the 200-day moving average (200 DMA) reaching its ATH (All-Time High) of $57,000. Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, is also optimistic. In his latest message, he urged investors to "run with the bulls." (It should be noted here that MicroStrategy holds 205,000 BTC on its balance sheet, so Saylor's bullish calls are quite understandable. He simply has to do this for his company to profit rather than incur losses).

However, analysts note that bitcoin's fate depends not only on the rosy calls of the MicroStrategy CEO. And if buyer support weakens, BTC could break through the key support level of $61,000, falling to the $56,000 zone, where significant liquidity is concentrated. MN Trading founder Michael Van De Poppe does not rule out another correction to around $55,000. However, the specialist quickly reassures investors, stating that this is quite acceptable as long as bitcoin holds above $60,000. Anthony Pompliano believes that the price will not fall below $50,000, and another expert, Alan Santana, does not rule out a drop to $30,000.

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital believes that the first cryptocurrency has exited the post-halving "danger zone" and entered the initial phase of re-accumulation. According to this expert, in 2016, BTC demonstrated a long red candle after the halving, falling by 17%. This time, the pattern repeated, with the difference between the post-halving maximum and minimum being 16%. The price reached a local bottom at around $56,566 but then rose to $65,508, on which Rekt Capital concluded that it re-entered the "re-accumulation range." However, there is one "but" - after this, we again observed a drop to $60,175. Overall, it seems that BTC/USD is in a descending channel, which increases investor concern.

In general, the forecasts are quite diverse. Information on the activity of various categories of traders and investors also varies. Analyst and CMCC Crest co-founder Willy Woo noted the activity of so-called crypto dolphins and sharks. "There has never been such a rapid purchase of coins by wealthy holders as in the last two months when the price fluctuated between $60,000-70,000. We are talking about those who hold from 100 BTC to 1000 BTC or approximately $6.5-65 million," he explained. On the other hand, according to CryptoQuant analysts, whales holding from 1000 to 10000 BTC, unlike dolphins and sharks, have behaved quite passively. Michael Van De Poppe, for his part, notes the absence of retail investors.

All this suggests that we may not see new all-time highs for BTC in the coming months. We wrote about this in the previous review, citing, among other things, the opinion of such a Wall Street legend as Factor LLC head Peter Brandt. With a 25% probability, he assumed that bitcoin had already formed another ATH within the current cycle.

As for long-term forecasts, nothing has changed here - most of them predict a powerful bull rally for bitcoin. Anthony Pompliano writes about this. Willy Woo expects bitcoin to continue increasing its penetration into various spheres of everyday life, meaning the number of users will grow. "By 2035, we expect bitcoin's fair value to reach $1 million. This forecast is based on the user growth curve. And I'm talking about fair value, not a peak during a bull market frenzy," the analyst notes.

The author of the bestseller "Rich Dad Poor Dad," entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki, once again included bitcoin in the TOP-3 ways to save and increase capital. "Bad news: the [currency market] crash has already begun. It will be severe. Good news: a crash is the best time to get rich," he wrote, offering several recommendations on how to act in a crisis. Let's note two of them. The first reads: "Find an additional source of income. Artificial Intelligence will destroy millions of jobs. Start a small business and become an entrepreneur, not an employee afraid of losing a job." "Don't hoard fake money (US dollar, euro, yen, peso) that is losing value. Hoard gold, silver, and bitcoin - real money whose value increases, especially in a market crash," is Kiyosaki's second recommendation.

Regarding bitcoin's growth, Kiyosaki is absolutely right; it's even pointless to argue. According to a study by Colin Wu, better known as WuBlockchain, over the past decade, the price of the leading cryptocurrency has grown by an astonishing 12,464%, outpacing giants like Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Tesla, and Netflix. BTC was second only to Nvidia (+17,797%). But the fact that bitcoin took second place, being a representative of a relatively new and volatile market, is a real achievement. BTC's impressive growth trajectory over the past decade demonstrates its resilience and potential as an essential component in investors' portfolios.

At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, 10 May, the BTC/USD pair is trading at $60,470. The total market capitalization of the crypto market is $2.24 trillion ($2.33 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen from the Neutral zone (48 points a week ago) to the Greed zone, now standing at 66 points.


NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

NordFX Named Best ECN/STP Forex Broker 2024

NordFX received its first award nearly 15 years ago, back in 2010. Since then, it has been honoured with more than 70 professional prizes and titles for achievements and innovations across various sectors of the financial industry. However, only once before, in 2015, were NordFX's merits in organizing ECN trading specifically recognized. Now, the esteemed international online portal FXDailyInfo has once again acknowledged the company as the Best ECN/STP Forex Broker.

FXDailyInfo is one of the leading resources providing daily news and analysis on the financial markets, including broker reviews, educational materials, and other useful information for traders. The portal also annually recognizes the best representatives of the financial industry with its awards. Winners of the FXDailyinfo Awards are determined through open voting by visitors to the website, which makes these awards particularly valuable as they objectively reflect the opinion of the professional community. This time, the high rating was given for the services NordFX offers its clients on Zero accounts on popular platforms such as MetaTrader 4 and 5.

A key feature here is direct access to interbank liquidity. The Electronic Communication Network (ECN) used on MT4 Zero and MT5 Zero accounts directs trader orders directly to liquidity providers, bypassing any additional intermediation. This reduces order processing time and provides the opportunity to trade at the most favourable prices with minimal commissions and spreads. On most popular pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY, typical spreads are 0 pips. In addition to currency pairs, traders can also conduct transactions with cryptocurrencies, stocks, and exchange indexes, as well as oil, gas, and precious metals on these accounts. Notably, the spread for the gold pair XAU/USD is also zero. This pair is particularly favored by traders in NordFX's top three, largely thanks to which they were able to earn an impressive total of nearly $2.5 million USD in the previous year, 2023.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 06 – 10 May 2024

EUR/USD: What's Wrong with the US Soft Landing?

The headline of our last review stated that inflation remains stubborn, and the US GDP is slowing. Newly arrived data have only confirmed these assertions. A crucial inflation measure that the Federal Reserve follows – the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) – increased from 2.5% to 2.7% in March. The ISM Manufacturing Sector PMI surpassed the critical level of 50.0 points, dropping from 50.3 to 49.2 points. It is important to remember that the 50.0 threshold separates economic growth from contraction. In such circumstances, neither raising nor lowering the interest rate is advisable, which is exactly what the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Federal Reserve decided. At its meeting on Wednesday, 01 May, the committee members unanimously left the rate unchanged at 5.50%, marking the highest rate in 23 years and unchanged for the sixth consecutive meeting.

This decision matched market expectations. Thus, greater interest was on the press conference and comments from the regulator's leadership after the meeting. The head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, stated that inflation in the US is still too high and further progress in reducing it is not guaranteed as it has not shown signs of slowing in recent months. According to him, the Fed is fully committed to returning inflation to the 2.0% target. However, "I don't know how long it will take," Powell admitted.

The outcomes of the FOMC meeting appear neutral except for one "dovish pill." The regulator announced that from June, it would reduce the amount of Treasury securities it redeems from its balance sheet from $60 billion to $25 billion per month. This tightening of the money supply is not yet a shift to quantitative easing (QE) but a definite step towards reducing the scale of quantitative tightening (QT). It must be noted that this did not make a strong impression on market participants.

Besides fighting inflation, the Fed's other main goal is maximum employment. "If inflation remains persistent and the labour market strong, it would be appropriate to delay lowering rates," Powell stated. Following his remarks, the market anticipated the important US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report, which was to be released on Friday, 03 May. This document disappointed dollar bulls as the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector (NFP) in the US only grew by 175K in April, significantly lower than both the March figure of 315K and market expectations of 238K. The employment report also showed an increase in unemployment from 3.8% to 3.9%. The only solace for Powell and other Fed officials was the reduction in wage inflation – the annual growth rate of hourly earnings slowed from 4.1% to 3.9%.

European economy. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Germany increased from 0.4% to 0.5% on a monthly basis. Retail sales also increased, from -2.7% to +0.3% year-on-year. Germany's GDP also moved into positive territory, rising in Q1 from -0.3% to 0.2%, exceeding the forecast of 0.1%. Regarding the Eurozone as a whole, the economy looks quite healthy – it is growing and inflation is falling. Preliminary data for Q1 shows GDP rising from 0.1% to 0.4% year-on-year and from 0.0% to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. Core inflation (CPI) fell from 1.1% to 0.7% on a monthly basis and from 2.9% to 2.7% year-on-year, not far from the target of 2.0%.

This suggests that the European Central Bank (ECB) may begin to lower interest rates earlier than the Fed. However, it is still too early to make final conclusions. If based on the derivatives market, the probability of the first rate cut for the dollar in September is about 50%. Some economists, including analysts from Morgan Stanley and Societe Generale, even suggest that the Fed might postpone the first rate cut until early 2025.

After the release of the weak employment report in the US, the week's maximum was recorded at 1.0811. However, everything then calmed down a bit and the last point was placed by EUR/USD at 1.0762. As for the forecast for the near future, as of the evening of 03 May, 75% of experts expect the dollar to strengthen, 25% – its weakening. Among the oscillators on D1, the opposite is true: only 25% are on the side of the reds, 60% – are coloured green, 15% – in neutral gray. Among the trend indicators, there is a balance: 50% for the reds, just as much for the greens. The nearest support for the pair is located in the zone 1.0710-1.0725, then 1.0650, 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0560, 1.0495-1.0515, 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0255, 1.0130, 1.0000. Resistance zones are located in the areas 1.0795-1.0805, 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0965-1.0980, 1.1015, 1.1050, 1.1100-1.1140.

No events as important as those of the past week are anticipated. However, the calendar still highlights Tuesday, 07 May, when revised retail sales data in the Eurozone will be released, and Thursday, 09 May, when the number of unemployment benefit claims in the US is traditionally made known.

GBP/USD: Will the Pair Fall to 1.2000?

Not the pound but the dollar defined the week for GBP/USD. This is evidenced by the fact that the pair completely ignored the forecast of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development according to which the UK will face the slowest economic growth and the highest inflation among the G7 countries, excluding Germany, this and next year. It is expected that the UK's GDP in 2024 will decrease from 0.7% to 0.4% and in 2025 – from 1.2% to 1%.

Commenting on this rather sad forecast, the UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt stated that the country's economy continues to fight inflation with high interest rates, which put significant pressure on the pace of economic growth.

Like other central banks, the BoE faces a tough choice – to prioritize fighting inflation or supporting the national economy. It is very difficult to sit on two chairs at once. Economists from the investment bank Morgan Stanley believe that the divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of England and the Fed could put serious pressure on GBP/USD. In their opinion, if markets decide that the Fed will refrain from lowering the rate this year and the BoE begins a softening cycle (by 75 basis points this year), the pound may once again test the 1.2000 level.

The pair ended the week at 1.2546. The median forecast of analysts regarding its behaviour in the near future looks maximally uncertain: a third voted for the pair's movement south, a third – north, and just as many – east. Regarding technical analysis, among trend indicators on D1, 35% point south and 65% look north. Among the oscillators, only 10% recommend selling, the rest 90% – buying, although a quarter of them give signals of the pair's overbought.

The pair will encounter resistance at levels 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2695-1.2710, 1.2755-1.2775, 1.2800-1.2820, 1.2885-1.2900. In case of a fall, it will meet support levels and zones at 1.2500-1.2520, 1.2450, 1.2400-1.2420, 1.2300-1.2330, 1.2185-1.2210, 1.2110, 1.2035-1.2070, 1.1960, and 1.1840.

If last week the dynamics of GBP/USD were mainly determined by news from the US, much will depend on what happens in the UK during the upcoming week. Thus, on Thursday, 09 May, a meeting of the Bank of England will take place, where a decision on further monetary policy, including changes in interest rates and the planned volume of asset purchases, will be made. And at the very end of the working week, on Friday, 10 May, data on the country's GDP for Q1 2024 will be released.

USD/JPY: A Truly Crazy Week


At its meeting on 26 April, the members of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Board unanimously decided to leave the key rate and the parameters of the QE program unchanged. There was no harsh commentary expected by many on the future prospects. Such inaction by the central bank intensified pressure on the national currency, sending USD/JPY to new heights.

A significant part of the previous review was devoted to discussing how much the yen would need to weaken before Japanese financial authorities moved from observation and soothing statements to real active measures. USD/JPY had long surpassed levels around 152.00, where intervention occurred in October 2022 and where a reversal happened about a year later. This time, strategists from the Dutch Rabobank called 155.00 a critical level for the start of currency interventions by the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan. The same mark was mentioned by 16 out of 21 economists surveyed by Reuters. Others forecasted similar actions at levels of 156.00 (2 respondents), 157.00 (1), and 158.00 (2). We suggested raising the forecast bar to 160.00, and as a reversal point, we indicated 160.30. And we were right.

Firstly, on Monday, 29 April, when the country celebrated the birth of Hirohito (Emperor Showa), USD/JPY continued its cosmic epic and updated another 34-year high by reaching 160.22. Thus, in just two days, it rose by more than 520 points. The last time such an impressive surge was observed was 10 years ago.

However, the situation did not calm down there. On the same day, a short powerful impulse sent the pair back down by 570 points to 154.50. Then followed a rebound, and late in the evening on 01 May, when the sun was already rising over Japan the next day, another crash occurred – in just one hour, the pair dropped 460 points, stopping its fall near 153.00. This movement occurred after relatively mild decisions by the Fed, but the cause was clearly not this, as other major currencies at that moment strengthened against the dollar much less. For example, the euro by 50 points, the British pound – by 70.

Such sharp movements in favour of the yen were very similar to the currency interventions of the BoJ in 2022. Although there was no official confirmation of intervention by the Japanese authorities, according to estimates by Bloomberg, this time on the intervention on Monday, 29 April, 5.5 trillion yen was spent, and on 01 May, according to calculations by the Itochu Institute, another 5 trillion yen.

And now the question arises: what next? The effect of the autumn interventions of 2022 lasted a couple of months – already at the beginning of January 2023, the yen began to weaken again. So it is quite possible that in a few weeks or months, we will again see USD/JPY around 160.00.

The BoJ's statement following the latest meeting stated that "the prospects for economic and price developments in Japan are extremely uncertain" and "it is expected that relaxed monetary policy will be maintained for some time." There is currently no need to raise the interest rate as core inflation is significantly and sharply decreasing, it has fallen from 2.4% to 1.6%. Especially since tightening monetary policy could harm the country's economy. The growth rate of GDP remains close to zero. Moreover, the public debt is 264% of GDP. (For comparison: the constantly discussed US public debt is half that – 129%). So the mentioned "some time" in the statement of the regulator may stretch for many months.

It is appropriate to recall BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi, who recently stated that the pace of future rate increases is likely to be much slower than global counterparts, and it is impossible to say whether there will be another increase this year. So a new strengthening of the yen is possible only in two cases – thanks to new currency interventions and thanks to the start of easing monetary policy by the Fed.

According to Japanese MUFG Bank economists, interventions will only help buy time, not initiate a long-term reversal. Bloomberg believes that the intervention itself will be effective only if it is coordinated, particularly with the USA. According to forecasts by analysts of this agency, this year USD/JPY may rise to approximately 165.00, although overcoming the mark at 160.00 may take some time.

After all these crazy ups and downs, the past week ended at a level of 152.96. The experts' forecast regarding its nearest future, as in the case with GBP/USD, gives no clear directions: a third are for its rise, a third – for its fall, and a third have taken a neutral position. Technical analysis instruments are also in complete disarray. Among the trend indicators on D1, the distribution of forces is 50% to 50%. Among the oscillators, 50% point south (a third are in the oversold zone), 25% look north, and 25% – east. Traders should keep in mind that due to such volatility; the magnitude of slippage can reach many dozens of points. The nearest support level is located in the area of 150.00-150.80, then follow 146.50-146.90, 143.30-143.75, and 140.25-141.00. Resistance levels are 154.80-155.00, 156.25, 157.80-158.30, 159.40, and 160.00-160.25.

No significant events regarding the state of the Japanese economy are expected next week. Moreover, traders should keep in mind that Monday, 06 May is another holiday in Japan – the country celebrates Children's Day.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: BTC-2025 Target – $150,000-200,000

In the last review, we wondered where bitcoin would fall. Now we know the answer: on 01 May, it fell to the mark of $56,566. The last time the main cryptocurrency was valued this low was at the end of February 2024.

Bearish sentiments apparently arose because the trading volumes of new ETFs in Hong Kong turned out to be significantly lower than expected. Optimism in this regard has dried up. Against this backdrop, there began a withdrawal of funds from exchange-traded BTC-ETFs in the USA. Analysts from Fidelity Digital Assets, a leading issuer of one of these funds, noted a growing interest in selling and locking in profits from the side of long-term hodlers. For this reason, Fidelity revised its medium-term forecast for bitcoin from positive to neutral. According to CoinGlass monitoring, liquidations of long positions reached $230 million per day. Another negative factor for the market is called the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, as a result of which investors began to flee from any high-risk assets. Instead, they began to invest capital in traditional financial instruments. In light of these events, the main beneficiaries in March-April were the dollar and US Treasury bonds, as well as precious metals.

Analysts from Glassnode hope that bullish sentiments will still prevail since the market prefers to "buy on the fall." However, they admit that the loss of support in the area of $60,000 may lead to further collapse of the BTC rate. Co-founder of CMCC Crest Willy Woo called support from short-term holders at the mark of $58,900 critical. After its breach, in Woo's opinion, the market risks transitioning to a bearish phase.

So, last week, both these lines of defense of the bulls were broken. What's next? In Glassnode, as a bottom, they call the level of $52,000. The founder of venture company Pomp Investments Anthony Pompliano believes that the price will not fall below $50,000. Another expert – Alan Santana does not exclude a failure to $30,000. All these forecasts indicate that in the coming months, investors may not see new historical maximums of BTC.

For example, legendary trader, analyst, and head of Factor LLC Peter Brandt with a probability of 25% admitted that bitcoin has already formed another maximum (ATH) within the current cycle. This happened on 14 March at the height of $73,745. The expert referred to the concept of "exponential decay." The latter describes the process of decreasing the amount of growth by a constant percentage over a certain period. "Bitcoin has historically traded within approximately a four-year cycle, often associated with halvings. After the initial bullish rally, there were three more, each being 80% less powerful than the previous one in terms of price growth," the specialist explains.

"In my analysis, I estimated the probability [of such a scenario] at 25%. But I trust more the report that I published in February. […] Building a cycle 'before/after halving' suggests that the current bullish trend will reach its peak in the range of $140,000–160,000 somewhere in the late summer/early fall of 2025," Peter Brandt clarified.

CEO of Quantonomy Giovanni Santostasi doubted the correctness of applying the theory of exponential decay in this particular case. "We have three data points if we exclude the period before [the first] halving and actually only two if we consider the ratios. This is not enough for any meaningful statistical analysis," Santostasi commented on the assumption expressed by Brandt. According to his own model of power dependence, the peak of the fourth cycle falls approximately in December 2025 at the level of ~$210,000.

Note that not only Giovanni Santostasi, but also many other participants in the crypto market, are counting on the continuation of the bull rally and reaching a new ATH. For example, the aforementioned Anthony Pompliano believes that within 12-18 months, the coin is waiting for growth to $100,000 with chances to reach $150,000-200,000. Analyst at Glassnode James Check hopes that at this stage, the BTC rate will reach $250,000. And Peter Brand himself in the mentioned February report called $200,000 as a potential landmark. At the same time, economists from QCP Capital believe that it is necessary to wait at least two months before assessing the effect of the past fourth halving. "The spot price grew exponentially only 50-100 days after each of the three previous halvings. If this pattern repeats this time, bitcoin bulls still have weeks to build a larger long position," their report states.

According to CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Mark Yusko, the appearance of exchange-traded BTC-ETFs has led to a significant change in demand. However, the full effect of this is yet to be felt. According to the businessman, the main capital flows will come from baby boomers, i.e., those born between 1946 and 1964, through pension accounts managed by investment consultants. The capital of baby boomers is estimated at $30 trillion. "I believe that within 12 months, $300 billion will flow into the crypto sphere – this is 1% of 30 trillion dollars. In fact, this is more money than has ever been converted into bitcoins in 15 years," Yusko shared his forecast, adding that the inflow could potentially increase the capitalization of the crypto market to $6 trillion.

Another forecast was given by specialists from Spot On Chain. According to their words, the analytical model developed by them is based on an extensive data set. In particular, it takes into account halvings, interest rate cycles, the ETF factor, venture investors' activity, and sales of bitcoins by miners. Using the artificial intelligence platform Vertex AI from Google Cloud, Spot On Chain obtained forecasts for the BTC price for the years 2024-2025.

During May-July, the price of the first cryptocurrency, according to their calculations, will be in the range of $56,000-70,000. This period is characterized by increased volatility. In the second half of 2024, with a probability of 63%, BTC will rise to $100,000. "This forecast signals the prevailing bullish sentiments in the market, which will be facilitated by the expected reduction in interest rates [by the US Federal Reserve]. This may increase the demand for risky assets such as stocks and bitcoin," representatives of Spot On Chain explained.

According to their words, there is a "convincing probability" of 42% that in the first half of 2025, digital gold will overcome the $150,000 mark, as the first cryptocurrency usually updates the historical maximum within 6-12 months after each halving. If we take the whole of 2025, the chances of growth to $150,000 increase to 70%.

Thus, as follows from the forecasts presented above, the main target range for bitcoin in 2025 is at the height of $150,000-200,000. Of course, these are just forecasts and not at all a fact that they will come true, especially if we take into account the opinion of the "funeral team" consisting of Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Peter Schiff, and other ardent critics of the first cryptocurrency. Meanwhile, at the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, 03 May, BTC/USD, taking advantage of the weakening dollar, grew to $63,000. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $2.33 trillion ($2.36 trillion a week ago). The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index showed a serious drop – from 70 to 48 points and moved from the Greed zone to the Neutral zone.


NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

April Results: A British Pound Trade Nets NordFX Client Over $25,000 in Profit

Brokerage firm NordFX has summarized the trading performance of its clients for April 2024. The efficacy of social trading services, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the earnings of the company’s IB-partners were also evaluated.

- This month’s highest profit was earned by a client from South Asia, account number 1765XXX, who made $26,757 from trading the GBP/USD pair.
- The second place in the TOP-3 was taken by their compatriot, account number 1751XXX, with earnings of $16,976 from gold trades (XAU/USD).
- The third step of the April podium was claimed by a trader from East Asia, account number 1609XXX, who traded not physical but digital “gold”: bitcoin. It was the BTC/USD pair transactions that enabled them to profit by $14,301.

The passive investment services at NordFX showed the following trends:

- In the PAMM service, we continue to monitor the account named Kikos2. Opened on November 18 last year, now after 162 days of operation, it shows a fantastic profit of 1161%. While this result is impressive, the aggressive trading strategy has also led to a substantial drawdown of 58%. Unrelenting statistics demonstrate that even more conservative trading can lead to a complete loss of funds. Therefore, investors must always exercise utmost caution and only risk the money whose loss will not disrupt their normal life. We will continue to monitor and see what happens with this account in May. 

- In CopyTrading, we have previously highlighted the signal yahmat-forex, which has shown a return of 415% over 312 days with a maximum drawdown of 37%. Another interesting signal called NordFXSrilanka has made a profit of 39% in 113 days, specifically since January 6, 2024. While not as impressive as yahmat-forex, its notable advantage is a very small drawdown: just about 9%.

Among the IB-partners of NordFX, the TOP-3 are as follows:
- The largest commission reward of $22,732 was credited to a partner from Western Asia, account number 1645XXX.
- The next is a partner from South Asia, account number 1682XXX, who received $5,224.
- Finally, rounding out the top three is their compatriot, account number 1565XXX, who was rewarded with $3,614.

***

As we conclude this month, it is important to note that NordFX clients now have yet another excellent opportunity to enhance their financial portfolio. In the 2024 super lottery, 202+4 cash prizes totaling $100,000 will be awarded. Participating in the lottery and securing a chance to win one or even several of these prizes is quite simple. For more details, visit the NordFX website.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 29 - May 3, 2024

EUR/USD: Inflation Persists, US GDP Growth Slows

The US economy remains the most powerful on the planet. Moreover, its share of global GDP has reached a nearly two-decade high of 26.3%. According to the IMF, from 2018, the European Union's share decreased by 1.4%, Japan's by 2.1%, while the United States increased by 2.3%. China's GDP is 64% of the American figure, down from 67% five years ago. As a result, the dollar remains the undisputed leader among G10 currencies, with no contenders for its throne in the foreseeable future. The strength of the national economy, coupled with a robust labour market, allows the Federal Reserve to focus on combating inflation, aiming to reduce it to the target 2.0%. According to Jerome Powell, head of the US Central Bank, easing monetary policy under current conditions would have far more negative consequences for the economy than maintaining it tight over a long period. Against this backdrop, the likelihood of a dollar interest rate cut at the Fed's June meeting, according to the FedWatch Tool, fell to 15%. Market participants believe that, at best, a decision to change the current policy may be taken in September. Some economists, including analysts from Morgan Stanley and Societe Generale, even suggest that the Fed may delay the first rate cut until early 2025. Such forecasts led to the US currency rising to five-month highs in mid-April against the euro, British pound, Australian, and New Zealand dollars, with USD/JPY once again reaching a 34-year price record and the DXY index climbing to 106.42.

However, that was in mid-April. For the last ten days of the month, the DXY was under bearish pressure, pushing EUR/USD upward. Jerome Powell stated that decisions on rate cuts are not made in advance but depend entirely on macroeconomic statistics. The statistics released in the last few days looked ambiguous, causing doubts that the US economy could maintain its previous positive dynamics. Tuesday's statistics on April 23, regarding US business activity and core durable goods orders, disappointed investors. Preliminary data from S&P Global showed that the Business Activity Index (PMI) in the US services sector unexpectedly fell from 51.7 to 50.9 points. The manufacturing sector's indicators were even worse, where the PMI crossed the threshold, separating progress from regression. In April, this indicator fell from 51.9 to 49.9 (forecast 52.0). These data alone are not as significant as labor market or inflation reports, but two days later, on April 25, they were supplemented by equally disappointing US GDP data. The preliminary estimate showed that US economic growth in Q1 was only 1.6%, lower than the forecast 2.5% and previous 3.4%. Compared to the same quarter in 2023, GDP growth decreased from 3.1% to 3.0%. Against this backdrop, the DXY, and with it EUR/USD, underwent a correction, with the pair rising to 1.0752.  

It should be recalled that the US inflation data released on April 10 showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached 3.5% year-on-year, the highest in six months. On Friday, April 26, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that inflation measured by the change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index in March rose to 2.7% (year-on-year). The core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, instead of the expected decrease to 2.6%, remained at the previous level of 2.8%. Thus, on the one hand, we see that inflation is resistant and does not want to go down, and on the other hand, we observe a slowdown in GDP growth. According to our forecasts, faced with such a crossroads, the Fed will still not deviate from its previous path and will choose to fight price growth. Moreover, the decrease in GDP in Q1 should not overly alarm the regulator, as the US economy had been expanding at 2% and more for seven consecutive quarters, despite the aggressively tight monetary policy of the Fed. Moreover, recent labor market data looks very positive. The number of initial unemployment claims decreased from 212K to 207K (forecast 214K) – a minimum since February.

On Tuesday, April 23, the same day as in the US, preliminary data on business activity came out from the other side of the Atlantic. In Germany, the Manufacturing PMI rose from 41.9 to 42.2, and in the services sector – from 50.1 to 53.3, the Composite Index – from 47.7 to 50.5. Regarding the Eurozone as a whole, a positive dynamic was also noted. Thus, the Business Activity Index in the services sector rose from 51.5 to 52.9 points, the Composite Index from 50.3 to 51.4. The exception was the Manufacturing PMI (a decrease from 46.1 to 45.6). As for forecasts about the start of easing monetary policy by the European Central Bank, the emphasis is still on June. This was once again confirmed by the president of the German Bundesbank and a member of the ECB's Governing Council, Joachim Nagel, who stated on April 24 that a rate cut in June does not necessarily imply a series of rate cuts. In other words, in June – yes, there will be a cut, what happens next – is still unknown.

All of the above indicates that the fundamental indicators are still on the side of the dollar. The EUR/USD correction is likely to be limited and will not be powerful or prolonged. Last week, the pair closed at 1.0692. According to economists from the Singapore-based United Overseas Bank, it is unlikely to have the strength to break through the resistance at 1.0765. As for the forecast for the near future, as of the evening of April 26, 50% of experts expect the dollar to strengthen, 35% – its weakening, the remaining 15% maintained neutrality. Among the trend indicators on D1, 65% are on the side of the bears, 35% – are coloured green. Among the oscillators, a third are on the side of the bears, a third – on the side of the greens, and a third – are painted in neutral gray. The nearest support for the pair is located in the zone of 1.0680, then 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0560, 1.0495-1.0515, 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0255, 1.0130, 1.0000. Resistance zones are located in the areas of 1.0710-1.0725, 1.0740-1.0750, 1.0795-1.0805, 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0965-1.0980, 1.1015, 1.1050, 1.1100-1.1140.

 The coming week promises to be quite turbulent and volatile as it is filled with various important events. On Monday, April 29, preliminary data on consumer inflation (CPI) in Germany will be released. The next day, another batch of German statistics will be released, including GDP and retail sales figures. On the same day, we will learn the preliminary volume of GDP and the level of inflation in the Eurozone as a whole. On Wednesday, May 1, Germany and many other EU countries will have a holiday – Labor Day. However, the United States will continue to work on this day. First, the ADP report on employment levels in the private sector of the country and indicators of business activity in the manufacturing sector will be published. The most important event will undoubtedly be the meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday, May 1, and the subsequent press conference of the management of this regulator. In addition, on Friday, May 3, we traditionally await another batch of very important statistics from the American labor market, including the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP), as well as revised data on business activity (PMI) in the US services sector.

GBP/USD: US PCE Hindered the Strengthening of the Pound

The preliminary statistics on business activity in the United Kingdom released on Tuesday, April 23, were mixed. The PMI in the manufacturing sector of the country crossed from above to below the growth/fall boundary, and with a forecast and previous value of 50.3 points, it actually fell to 48.7. In the UK services sector, on the other hand, there was growth in April – the indicator rose from 53.1 to 54.9 (market expectations 53.0). As a result, the Composite PMI reached 54.0 (52.8 a month earlier). However, all these figures did not attract much attention from investors.

On April 22, GBP/USD fell to 1.2300. The bulls on the pair took advantage of the dollar's overbought condition to return it to the lower boundary of the medium-term corridor of 1.2500-1.2800 in which it had been moving since the end of November last year. However, they did not have enough strength to consolidate within the corridor. The two-week maximum was recorded at 1.2540, after which, pushed by US PCE, the pair went down again and ended the five-day period at 1.2492.

According to specialists from United Overseas Bank, as long as the support at 1.2420 is not broken, there is still a possibility of the pound breaking through the 1.2530 mark. The next resistance, according to them, is at 1.2580. The median forecast of analysts regarding the behaviour of GBP/USD in the near future looks maximally uncertain: 20% voted for the movement of the pair to the south, the same amount – to the north, and the majority (60%) simply shrugged their shoulders. As for technical analysis, the trend indicators on D1 point south 65% and 35% look north. Among the oscillators, the picture is mixed: 25% recommend selling, 25% – buying, and 50% are in the neutral zone. In case of further decline of the pair, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2450, 1.2400-1.2420, 1.2300-1.2330, 1.2185-1.2210, 1.2110, 1.2035-1.2070, 1.1960, and 1.1840. In case of growth, the pair will encounter resistance at levels 1.2530-1.2540, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2695-1.2710, 1.2755-1.2775, 1.2800-1.2820, 1.2885-1.2900.

No significant statistics on the state of the UK economy are planned for the week.

USD/JPY: Reached the Moon, Next Target – Mars?


We called the previous review "Higher and Higher". Now, it is worth asking at what altitude will this flight into space end? When will the Bank of Japan (BoJ) finally decide on a radical change in its monetary policy?

At the meeting on April 26, the members of the Japanese Central Bank unanimously decided to keep the key interest rate at the previous level of 0.0-0.1%. Moreover, the regulator removed from the statement the reference that it is currently buying JGB bonds for about 6 trillion yen per month. The statement after the meeting states that "the prospects for the development of the economy and prices in Japan are extremely uncertain," "if inflation rises, the Bank of Japan will likely change the degree of easing of monetary policy," however, "it is expected that the eased monetary policy will be maintained for some time."

The market predictably reacted to such decisions of the Japanese Central Bank with another Japanese candle on the chart of the USD/JPY pair. The maximum was recorded at 158.35, which corresponds to the peak values of 1990. There were no currency interventions to save the national currency, which many market participants feared. Recall that strategists from the Dutch Rabobank called the level of 155.00 critical for the start of such interventions by the Ministry of Finance of Japan. The same mark was called by 16 out of 21 economists surveyed by Reuters. The rest predicted such actions at levels of 156.00 (2 respondents), 157.00 (1), and 158.00 (2). USD/JPY has long exceeded the levels at which the intervention took place in October 2022 and where the market turned around about a year later. It now seems that 158.00 is not the limit. Perhaps it is worth raising the forecast bar to 160.00? Or immediately to 200.00?

USD/JPY ended the past week at 158.32. The forecast of analysts regarding the near future of the pair looks as follows: fear of currency interventions still prevails over 60% of them, while the remaining 40% are waiting for the continuation of the flight to Mars. Technical analysis tools clearly have no concerns about interventions. Therefore, all 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 point north, although a third of the latter are in the overbought zone. The nearest support level is located in the area of 156.25, then 153.90-154.30, 153.10, 151.00, 149.70-150.00, 148.40, 147.30-147.60, 146.50. And it is practically impossible to determine resistance levels. We only note the reversal maximum of April 1990, 160.30, although this target is quite conditional.

No significant events regarding the state of the Japanese economy are expected in the coming week. Moreover, traders should keep in mind that Monday and Friday in Japan are holidays: April 29, the country celebrates the birthday of Hirohito (Emperor Showa), May 3 – Constitution Day.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Where Will Bitcoin Fall?

As expected, the fourth halving took place in the bitcoin network at block [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] on April 20. The reward for finding a block was reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Recall that halving is a halving of the reward size for miners for adding a new block to the bitcoin blockchain. This event is embedded in the code of the first cryptocurrency and occurs every 210,000 blocks – until the moment when the mining of 21 million coins (presumably in 2040) ends the emission of cryptocurrency. It should be noted that the fourth halving will provide for the mining of approximately 95% of the entire bitcoin emission, about 99% of all coins will be mined by 2033-2036. Then, the emission will gradually move towards zero.

In the previous review, we promised to tell how the market would react to this important event. We promised – we report: the market reaction is close to zero. For several days after the halving, there was no growth in volatility. The price of bitcoin slowly and lazily moved first upward, reaching $67,269 on April 23, and then returned to where it began its weekly journey: to the $64,000 zone. It seems that market participants froze in anticipation of who would be the first to start buying or, conversely, selling the main cryptocurrency massively.

According to experts from Bitfinex, the post-halving supply restriction stabilizes the price of the first cryptocurrency and may contribute to its growth. "The reduction in the pace of bitcoin issuance after halving, which will amount to $30-40 million per day, contrasts sharply with the daily net inflow of $150 million into spot ETFs. This emphasizes a significant demand and supply imbalance, which may contribute to further price growth," stated the Bitfinex report.

However, analysts from QCP Capital believe that bitcoin optimists will have to wait at least two months before assessing the effect of the past fourth halving. "The spot price grew exponentially only 50-100 days after each of the three previous halvings. If this pattern repeats this time, bitcoin bulls still have weeks to create a larger long position," their report stated.

Anthony Pompliano, the founder of the venture company Pomp Investments, believes that within 12-18 months, the coin is expected to grow to $100,000, with chances of reaching $150,000-200,000. However, before moving to a bull rally, BTC/USD, in his opinion, is waiting for a correction down. At the same time, Pompliano believes that the price will not fall below $50,000. "I think we have already crossed this Rubicon," – he wrote.

The possible upcoming decline of the main cryptocurrency is probably a topic currently much more discussed than its subsequent growth. Many agree that bitcoin coins will appreciate in the long term. But how will quotes behave in the more foreseeable future? Fidelity Digital Assets, the leading issuer of one of the spot BTC ETFs, has already revised its medium-term forecast for bitcoin from positive to neutral. The reason for abandoning optimistic sentiments is several worrying trends in the crypto market. Fidelity analysts noted the growing interest in selling from long-term hodlers. Among them, there is currently a large percentage of profitable addresses, as noted in the company's report. This means that holders may want to lock in profits and start selling BTC. On the other hand, on-chain data indicates that small investors, on the contrary, continue to accumulate the first cryptocurrency. Since the beginning of the year, the number of addresses on which BTC is stored for at least $1,000 has increased by 20% and reached a new historical maximum. "Such a trend may indicate the growing dissemination of bitcoin and its acceptance among 'average' users," – Fidelity noted.

Specialists from CryptoQuant examined the SOPR indicator readings for these categories of investors and made conclusions similar to those of their colleagues from Fidelity. Investments in Bitcoin by "new" whales (owners of coins "aged" less than 155 days) almost doubled the indicator of "old" large players (more than 155 days). At the same time, the increased value of the metric showed that the profits of the "old" hodlers significantly exceed the indicators of the "newcomers". And if the "old-timers" move to fix profits, this may lead to the formation of price peaks. An analysis of the current picture, according to CEO of CryptoQuant Ki Young Ju, also speaks of the need to exercise caution in anticipation of possible corrections and increased volatility.

Recall that earlier, specialists from JPMorgan noted that digital gold is in a state of overbought. And co-founder of CMCC Crest Willy Woo noted that if the price of the first cryptocurrency falls below the support level of short-term holders at $58,900, the market risks moving into a bearish phase.

As of the evening of Friday, April 26, the BTC/USD pair is trading in the region of $63,950. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $2.36 trillion ($2.32 trillion a week ago). The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index remained in the Greed zone, although it rose from 66 to 70 points.

Finally, in conclusion of the review, our long-forgotten crypto-life-hacks column. It turns out that in order to become a crypto millionaire, it is enough to have a marker and a piece of paper. The possibility of such a way of enrichment was proven by Christian Langlois, also known as Bitcoin Sign Guy. This guy made headlines in many news outlets after showing a notebook sheet with the inscription "Buy Bitcoin" behind the back of the Chair of the Federal Reserve System Janet Yellen. At that moment, the head of the Fed was giving testimony about the state of the US economy. This image instantly spread across the network and became one of the symbols of the emerging crypto industry.

For his misdemeanour, the 22-year-old intern Langlois was disgracefully expelled from the hearings. But after this episode was shown on television, enthusiasts sent 7 BTC to his crypto wallet to thank the guy for his bold move. Four years ago, Christian sold 21 copies of the "cult" sheet at an average price of 0.8 BTC, earning another 16.8 BTC. Thus, his total earnings reached 23.8 BTC, which is more than $1.5 million at the current exchange rate.

And a few weeks ago, Langlois was offered another 5 bitcoins for the original, but he refused to sell the sheet. Nevertheless, Christian liked the idea of further monetizing the self-created object of "artistic and historical heritage", and he decided to sell it at an auction, directing the proceeds to finance his startup Tirrel Corp. On April 25, 2024, the auction house Scarce.City reported that the lot, which became a popular meme, was sold for 16 BTC (more than $1 million).


NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 22 – 26 April 2024

EUR/USD: A Pause After the Rally


Last week, 60% of analysts adopted a neutral stance in their previous forecast and were proven absolutely correct. EUR/USD had a calm week, even boring at times, moving along the 1.0650 mark within the narrow corridor of 1.0600-1.0690. Market participants were recuperating from the rally of the preceding days, with dollar bulls counting profits and bears licking their wounds. The American currency reached five-month highs against the euro, British pound, Australian, and New Zealand dollars, while USD/JPY once again set a 34-year price record, and the DXY index climbed to 106.42.

The macroeconomic data from the U.S., unmistakably inflationary in nature, started making an impact on March 8 with the employment report. NonFarm Payrolls exceeded expectations at 275K, compared to the previous 229K and the forecast of 198K, propelling the dollar upwards. Another boost came on April 10 with fresh U.S. inflation data showing a year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase of 3.5%, the highest in six months, which quashed any expectations of a rate cut in June, sending the Dollar Index soaring.

Last week's macroeconomic figures only reinforced the image of a robust U.S. economy with a tight labour market. The number of unemployment benefit claims stayed at a relatively low level of 212K, and the manufacturing activity indicator hit its highest mark in two years. Retail sales data released on April 15 almost doubled the forecast at 0.4%, actually coming in at 0.7% month-on-month, following a 0.9% increase in February, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0%. These figures indicate that both manufacturers and consumers have well adapted to the high interest rates. Employment and income levels are sufficiently high, increasing the likelihood of price rises.

In this context, there is no reason for the Fed to start a cycle of monetary easing in June, especially since inflation is still far from the 2.0% target. Market participants are now expecting the first rate cut by 25 basis points in September, with another similar cut by the end of the year. These forecasts were confirmed by John Williams, the head of the New York Federal Reserve, who noted that the latest inflation data were disappointing and that there was no urgent need to cut interest rates. Consequently, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are rising, while stock indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq are on the decline.

Attempts by EUR/USD bulls to initiate a rebound were halted on April 18 at the 1.0690 level after Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Vice-President of the ECB and head of the Bank of France, confirmed that the European regulator would likely cut rates in June if there were no significant surprises. Even hawkish figures like Robert Holzmann, head of Austria's central bank, agreed with these dovish forecasts.

The pair closed the five-day period at 1.0656. Fundamental indicators still favour the dollar, and although a correction northward for the pair cannot be ruled out, it is unlikely to be substantial or prolonged. For the immediate future, as of the evening of April 19, 80% of experts anticipate further strengthening of the dollar, with the remaining 20% expecting a bounce upwards. Among trend indicators on D1, 90% are red, and 10% are green. All oscillators are red, though 15% of them are in the oversold zone. The nearest support for the pair is found at 1.0600-1.0620, followed by 1.0560, 1.0495-1.0515, and 1.0450, down to 1.0375, 1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Resistance zones are at 1.0680-1.0695, 1.0725, 1.0795-1.0800, up to 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0965-1.0980, and 1.1015, reaching up to 1.1050 and 1.1100-1.1140.

The upcoming workweek can be termed a week of preliminary data. On Tuesday, April 23, preliminary business activity data (PMI) will be released for various sectors of the economy in Germany, the Eurozone, and the USA. On Thursday, April 25, preliminary U.S. GDP figures for Q1 2024 will be released. This will be followed by the usual data on initial unemployment claims and, on April 26, data on personal consumption expenditures in the country.

GBP/USD: CPI Disappoints BoE

Last week's macroeconomic statistics from the United Kingdom were less than favourable. Unemployment unexpectedly rose to 4.2% from a forecast of 4.0%. Claims for unemployment benefits surged from 4.1K to 10.9K, although this was notably below the market's expectation of 17.2K.

The bigger surprise came from the inflation indicators released on Wednesday, April 17. General inflation (CPI) decreased from 3.4% to 3.2% year-on-year, and core inflation dropped from 4.5% to 4.2%, against a market expectation of 4.1%. The monthly CPI remained steady at 0.6%. Unexpectedly high food prices and a sharp increase in housing costs at 3.8% month-on-month contributed to the inflation surprise. Volatile items such as books and video games also saw significant price rises; book prices experienced the largest monthly increase ever recorded at 4.9%, while video games prices increased by 2.3%.

"Overall, this is not what the Bank of England (BoE) would have wanted to see," analysts at TD Securities commented. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey quickly reassured the public, stating, "We are virtually at the same inflation level as in February and I expect the data next month to show a significant drop." He also mentioned that the oil price hike had not been as steep as expected, and the impact of the Middle East conflict was less than feared.

Indeed, the price rise in airline tickets, which are significantly influenced by fuel costs, was just 0.1% month-on-month. Given the early Easter this year, this increase seems quite mild. However, BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene expressed concerns about how energy prices and other supply shocks might affect inflation expectations in the future.

Recall that a week earlier, Megan Greene, in her column in the Financial Times, stated that inflation risks in the United Kingdom remain much higher than in the USA, and that 'markets are mistaken in their predictions regarding rate cuts [for the pound].' 'Markets have come to believe that the Fed will not start lowering rates so soon. In my view,' she wrote at the time, 'rate cuts in the United Kingdom should also not be expected anytime soon.' Following such remarks, just as with the dollar, markets anticipate no more than two rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, each by 25 basis points.

Last week, GBP/USD opened at 1.2448 and closed at 1.2370, failing to breach the key 1.2500 level. Analysts are divided on the pair's future movement: 80% foresee a further decline, while 20% predict a rebound. All D1 trend indicators and oscillators point downwards, though a third are signalling oversold conditions. If the pair falls further, support lies at 1.2330, 1.2185-1.2210, 1.2110, 1.2035-1.2070, 1.1960, and 1.1840. In case of a rise, resistance will be encountered at 1.2425, 1.2515, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2695-1.2710, 1.2755-1.2775, 1.2800-1.2820, and 1.2885-1.2900.

The upcoming week will see the release of preliminary business activity data (PMI) for the United Kingdom almost simultaneously with Germany and the Eurozone on Tuesday, April 23. No other significant economic data from the United Kingdom is expected this week.

USD/JPY: Higher and Higher...

Last week, USD/JPY once again reached a 34-year high, peaking at 154.78. This level was last seen in 1990. According to economists at the Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB), the pricing dynamics continue to suggest further strengthening of the dollar. "The upside risks remain as long as the dollar stays above 153.75, our strong support level," they wrote. "Should the price break above 155.00, focus will shift to 155.50." Meanwhile, strategists from the Dutch Rabobank believe that reaching 155.00 could significantly increase the risk of currency interventions by the Japanese Ministry of Finance to protect the yen from further weakening. According to the results of a survey published by Reuters, nearly all respondents (91%) believe that Tokyo will intervene at some point to stop further weakening of the currency. Sixteen out of twenty-one economists expect interventions in the USD/JPY at the level of 155.00. The rest predict similar actions at levels of 156.00 (2 respondents), 157.00 (1), and 158.00 (2).

Strengthening the national currency could involve tightening monetary policy by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), whose next meeting is scheduled for Friday, April 26. At its last meeting on March 19, the Japanese regulator made an unprecedented move by raising the rate from -0.1% to +0.1%, the first increase in 17 years. Asahi Noguchi, a BoJ board member, indicated that any future rate increases would likely occur at a much slower pace compared to recent tightenings by other global central banks. He noted that it would take a significant amount of time for a positive rate cycle to become firmly established, making it uncertain whether there will be another rate increase this year.

A Reuters poll showed that no economists expect a rate hike by the BoJ before the end of June. However, 21 out of 61 respondents believe that rates could be raised in the third quarter, and 17 out of 55 anticipate a fourth-quarter hike. Of a smaller sample of 36 economists, 19% think a July hike is possible, but October is the most likely time for an increase, with approximately 36% expecting it. In contrast, 31% believe the BoJ might take action in 2025 or later.

The pair closed the week at 154.63. Rabobank experts currently see the dollar being supported by demand for safe assets amid escalating Middle East tensions. A de-escalation between Israel and Iran could help temper the rise of the American currency. The median forecast surprisingly aligns with predictions for the two previously mentioned pairs: 80% of analysts expect further weakening (downward movement for this pair indicates a strengthening dollar), while 20% anticipate a rebound. All D1 trend indicators and oscillators point upwards, with 50% in the overbought zone. The nearest support level is around 154.30, with further support at 153.90, 153.50, 152.75, 151.55-151.75, 150.80-151.15, 149.70-150.00, 148.40, 147.30-147.60, and 146.50. Identifying resistance levels remains challenging after the pair's recent peaks, with the nearest resistance at 154.75-155.00, followed by 156.25. Additional benchmarks include the June 1990 monthly high around 155.80 and the April 1990 turnaround peak at 160.30.

Besides the aforementioned BoJ meeting, consumer inflation data for the Tokyo area will also be published on Friday, April 26. No other major events regarding the Japanese economy are expected next week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Will China's BTC-ETF Ignite the Market?

This analysis is prepared just hours before the 'hour X': the scheduled halving on Saturday, April 20. We will detail the market's reaction to this significant event next week. Meanwhile, let's focus on the events leading up to it.

In the days leading up to the halving, the leading cryptocurrency did not bring joy to investors. Starting on April 8, the price of bitcoin was on a downward trajectory. The weekly decline in BTC was the largest in the past eight months, and in dollar terms, it was the steepest since the FTX exchange collapse in November 2022. Following bitcoin, other major altcoins also plummeted, losing about a third of their value. The local minimum for BTC/USD was recorded on April 17 at around $59,640. At that moment, analyst and co-founder of venture company CMCC Crest, Willy Woo, warned that if the price of bitcoin fell below the short-term holders' support level at $58,900, the market might enter a bear phase. However, this did not occur, and the price returned to around $62,000.

Analysts at CryptoQuant believe that the recent crash was necessary to reset unrealized trader profits to zero—a typical signal of a bottom in bull markets. Willy Woo suggested that "current bearish sentiments are actually a bullish sign," and that the next level where major short liquidations would occur is between $71,000 and $75,000. Renowned trader RektCapital reassured investors, stating that a price drop before the halving is a normal trend. "There is no need to panic, as this drop has occurred in all cycles. Don’t think that it’s different this time," he emphasized.

There were, however, other theories about the recent price drop. According to one, the fall in bitcoin was helped by the escalation of conflict in the Middle East and an attack by Iran on Israel. CEO of Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, speculated that bitcoin could reach a new all-time high if the conflict in that region subsided. In this context, he urged world leaders to take control of the situation to prevent a further decline in prices for all financial assets, including cryptocurrency.

In contrast, Michael Saylor, president of MicroStrategy, believes that geopolitical tension will actually benefit bitcoin, suggesting that "chaos is good for bitcoin." Logically, this makes sense: cryptocurrency was born in response to the economic crisis of 2008, making it an alternative means of capital preservation during upheavals. (Note that MicroStrategy, with 205,000 BTC on its balance sheet, is the largest public holder of bitcoin and naturally interested in its price increase.)

OpenAI's ChatGPT did not overlook the international situation either. This Artificial Intelligence believes that if the crisis between Israel and Iran intensifies, the price of the main cryptocurrency will only slightly decrease, and this will be a short-term reaction. More severe impacts would likely be on assets like stocks. Bitcoin, however, is expected to quickly recover its position. ChatGPT, like Michael Saylor, anticipates that an initial drop will be followed by a bullish rally as investors look for a safe haven, potentially driving "digital gold" to a new historical high of $75,000. If the escalation in the Middle East becomes protracted and leads to a series of smaller conflicts, ChatGPT predicts the volatility range for bitcoin could expand: with an initial fall to $55,000 followed by a surge to $80,000.

It is worth noting that the discussed drop in BTC/USD occurred against the backdrop of a noticeable strengthening of the American currency. This was not only due to the dollar's role as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tension but also because of a postponement in market expectations regarding the timing of the Fed's easing of monetary policy. After the inflation data published on April 10, market participants decided that the first rate cut would not happen in June but in September, causing the Dollar Index (DXY) to surge sharply. Naturally, the strengthening of one asset in a currency pair led to the weakening of the other: the principle of leverage is irrefutable.

Now, a few words about what awaits the main cryptocurrency after the halving. This year, 75% of the investment influx has been provided by the newly launched spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. Their combined balance now totals $12.5 billion, with the U.S. accounting for over 95% of the global inflow into exchange-traded crypto funds. The interest in ETFs has been so strong that BlackRock's fund became the fastest-growing in history.

According to CryptoQuant analysts, the reserves of bitcoin on exchanges will last only a few months at the current rates. Total available exchange reserves have decreased by more than 800,000 BTC and have reached their lowest level in the history of two-year observations. As of April 16, they stand at about 2 million BTC. Assuming a daily influx into spot BTC-ETFs of about $500 million, which at current prices equates to approximately 8,025 coins, it would take just nine months to completely deplete these reserves.

The results of calculations using the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which demonstrates the relationship between an asset's usage and its reserves, show that after the halving, the bitcoin S2F coefficient will reach 112 points. This is nearly twice the S2F for gold (60 points), indicating that by January 2025, bitcoin will become a more scarce commodity than the most popular precious metal.

In such a scenario, another powerful new driver could emerge. Following the U.S., similar investment inflows into cryptocurrency could be provided by spot ETFs in China. According to insider information from Bloomberg, the SEC of Hong Kong could make a positive decision on launching such funds within the next few days. And perhaps the predictions by ARK Invest's CEO, Cathy Wood, and author Robert Kiyosaki, who expect the price of bitcoin to reach $2.3 million per coin by 2030, are not so far from the truth.

As of the evening of Friday, April 19, BTC/USD is trading around $64,150. The total market capitalization of the crypto market stands at $2.32 trillion, down from $2.44 trillion a week ago. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped from 79 to 66 points, moving from the Extreme Greed zone to the Greed zone.

Finally, a bit of intriguing information for collectors. As it has been revealed, miners have begun active preparations for the "hunt" for the first "epic" satoshi to be mined after the current halving. Whoever mines it might receive a substantial sum, as the estimated value of this "collectible" digital coin could be several tens of millions of dollars. About two years ago, Casey Rodarmor, creator of the Ordinals protocol on the blockchain of the first cryptocurrency, developed a system for classifying the rarity of individual sats. With the launch of "inscriptions," it became possible to number and sell fractions of bitcoin similar to non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Rodarmor's scale varies from the first "unusual" satoshi in each block to the "mythical" – the very first in the history of the blockchain. One of the highest degrees of rarity is the "epic" sat, mined in the first block after each halving. It is possible that collectors might value such an asset even at $50 million. (Remember that a satoshi is one hundred millionth of a bitcoin (0.00000001), and at the current BTC price, the price of a regular, non-collectible sat is just $0.00064).


NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 15 – 19 April 2024

EUR/USD: The Dollar Soars


Last week saw two significant events: the first shocked market participants, while the second passed without surprises. Let's examine the details in order.

Since mid-2022, consumer prices in the US have been declining. In July 2022, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at 9.1%, but by July 2023, it had fallen to 3.0%. However, in October, the CPI rose to 3.7%, then decreased again, and by February 2024, it had dropped to 3.2%. As a result, there was a general perception that inflation had finally been brought under control. The market consensus was that the Federal Reserve would soon begin to ease its monetary policy and start reducing interest rates in June. Two weeks ago, the likelihood of this move was estimated at 70%. The DXY index began to fall, reaching a local low of 103.94 on 9 April. However, the dollar bears' joy was short-lived, as fresh US inflation data released on Wednesday, 10 April, quickly changed the sentiment.

In annual terms, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.5%, marking the highest level in six months. The main drivers of this inflation increase were the rises in rental costs (5.7%) and transportation expenses (10.7%), which clearly caught the markets by surprise. The chances of a rate cut in June plummeted to zero, and the DXY dollar index soared, reaching a peak of 105.23 on the evening of 10 April. Alongside this, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds grew to 4.5%. As is typical in such scenarios, stock indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq declined, and the EUR/USD pair, after dropping over 150 points, fell to 1.0728.

Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, stated that although the regulator is confidently moving towards its 2.0% inflation target, the Federal Reserve leadership still has much work to do to reduce inflation. His colleague, John Williams, President of the New York Fed, noted that the latest inflation data were disappointing and added that economic prospects remain uncertain.

As a result of these and other statements, it is now forecasted that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates only in September. Moreover, investors expect there will be only two rate cuts this year, not three. Some believe that there may not be any rate cuts at all in 2024. However, according to US President Joe Biden, the Fed should still lower the rate in the second half of this year. His insistent request is quite understandable on the eve of the presidential elections. Firstly, it would reduce the cost of servicing the country's enormous national debt, and secondly, it would symbolize a victory over inflation, giving Biden several additional points in the battle for the White House.

After the American inflation reaction, markets took a brief pause, awaiting the European Central Bank (ECB) governing council meeting on 11 April. The ECB has held rates steady at 4.50% since September 2023, which was in line with market expectations as forecasted by all 77 economists surveyed by Reuters. Thus, after some fluctuation, EUR/USD returned to its pre-ECB meeting level.

The ECB press release affirmed the council's firm intention to return inflation to a medium-term target of 2.0% and believed that the key rates contribute significantly to the ongoing disinflation process. Future decisions will ensure that the key rates remain at sufficiently restrictive levels as long as necessary.

It's worth noting that inflation in the 20 Eurozone countries was at 2.4% in March, slightly above the target of 2.0%. In February, the rate was 2.6%, and in January it was 2.8%. Economists surveyed by Reuters believe that inflation will continue to decrease in the coming quarters, but it will not reach 2.0% before the second quarter of 2025.

Christine Lagarde, the head of the European Central Bank (ECB), expressed a similar view during a press conference. However, she mentioned that since the Eurozone economy remains weak, to support it, the ECB will not wait for inflation to return to the 2.0% level at every point. Thus, Ms. Lagarde did not rule out that the regulator might start easing its monetary policy significantly before 2025. Strategists from the Italian bank UniCredit forecast that the ECB will cut rates three times this year, by 25 basis points each quarter. The pace of reduction could remain the same next year. Economists from Deutsche Bank also expect that the pan-European regulator will start cutting rates before the Federal Reserve and will do so at a faster pace. Consequently, the widening interest rate differential between the US and the Eurozone will contribute to the weakening of the euro.

This medium-term forecast was confirmed last Friday: EUR/USD continued its decline, reaching a local minimum of 1.0622 and closing the five-day period at 1.0640. The DXY index peaked at 106.04. As for the near-term outlook, as of the evening of 12 April, 40% of experts anticipate an upward correction of the pair, while the majority (60%) hold a neutral position. Among the oscillators on D1, only 15% are coloured green, and 85% are red, although a quarter of them are in the oversold zone. Trend indicators are 100% bearish. The nearest support levels for the pair are located in the zones 1.0600-1.0620, followed by 1.0495-1.0515, 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Resistance zones are situated at levels 1.0680-1.0695, 1.0725, 1.0795-1.0800, 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0965-1.0980, 1.1015, 1.1050, 1.1100-1.1140.

Next week, on Monday, 15 April, US retail sales data will be released. On Wednesday, it will become clear what is happening with consumer inflation in the Eurozone. It is likely that the refined data will confirm the preliminary results, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March will be reported at 2.4% year-on-year. On Thursday, we traditionally expect data on the number of initial jobless claims from US residents and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

GBP/USD: The Pound Plummets

On Friday, 12 February, the UK's GDP data indicated that the economy is on the path to recovery. Although production has declined compared to last year, the latest data suggests that exiting the shallow recession is quite likely. GDP has grown for the second consecutive month, with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reporting a 0.1% increase in February on a monthly basis, with January's figures revised upwards to show a 0.3% growth from an earlier 0.2%.

Despite these figures, GBP/USD fell below the key 1.2500 mark due to crumbling hopes for an imminent Fed rate cut. Not even a statement from Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene, which highlighted that inflation risks in the UK remain significantly higher than in the US and that markets are mistaken in their rate cut forecasts, could change the situation. "Markets have leaned towards the Fed not cutting rates so soon. In my view, the UK will also not see rate cuts anytime soon," she wrote in her Financial Times column.

Following Greene's remarks, traders now expect no more than two rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, each by 25 basis points. However, this revised forecast did little to support the pound against the dollar, with GBP/USD ending the week at 1.2448.

Analysts are split on the short-term behaviour of GBP/USD: 50% voted for a rebound to the north, and 50% abstained from forecasting. Indicator readings on D1 suggest the following: among oscillators, 10% recommend buying, another 10% are neutral, and 80% indicate selling, with 20% of these signalling oversold conditions. All trend indicators are pointing downwards. If the pair continues south, it will encounter support levels at 1.2425, 1.2375-1.2390, 1.2185-1.2210, 1.2110, and 1.2035-1.2070. In the event of an increase, resistance will be found at levels 1.2515, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2695-1.2710, 1.2755-1.2775, 1.2800-1.2820, 1.2880-1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, and 1.3140.

The most significant days for the British currency next week will be Tuesday and Wednesday. Extensive labor market data from the United Kingdom will be released on Tuesday, 16 April, along with a speech from the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey. Wednesday, 17 April, could be even more turbulent and volatile as consumer inflation (CPI) data for the country will be published.

USD/JPY: Is 300.00 Just a Matter of Time?

Bears on USD/JPY continue to hope for its reversal southwards, yet the pair does not stop climbing. Our previous review titled "A Break Above 152.00 – A Matter of Time?" proved true within a very short period. Last week, the pair reached a 34-year high of 153.37, propelled by US inflation reports and increases in the DXY index and yields on 10-year US treasuries. (Considering that it traded above 300.00 in 1974, this is still not the limit).

This surge occurred despite another round of verbal interventions from high-ranking Japanese officials. Finance Minister Suzuki Shunichi reiterated his concern over excessive currency movements and did not rule out any options to combat them. Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi echoed these sentiments almost verbatim. However, the national currency no longer pays any attention to such statements. Only real currency interventions and significant steps towards tightening monetary policy by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could help, but these have yet to occur.

Analysts at Dutch Rabobank believe the Japanese Ministry of Finance will eventually be forced to act to prevent the price from reaching 155.00. "While a breakthrough of the 152.00 level by USD/JPY might not immediately trigger currency interventions, we see a significant likelihood of such a step," they write. "Assuming that the Bank of Japan may announce a second rate hike later this year and considering expectations that the Fed will indeed cut rates in 2024, Rabobank expects USD/JPY to trade around 150.00 on a monthly horizon and 148.00 on a 3-month horizon.".

Last week, the pair closed at 152.26. Regarding its near future, 25% of experts sided with the bears, another 25% remained neutral, and the remaining 50% voted for further strengthening of the US currency and a rise in the pair. Technical analysis tools are apparently unaware of the fears regarding possible currency interventions, so all 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are pointing north, with a quarter of them now in the overbought zone. The nearest support level is around 152.75, followed by 151.55-151.75, 150.80-151.15, 149.70-150.00, 148.40, 147.30-147.60, and 146.50. Defining resistance levels after the pair updated 34-year highs is challenging. The nearest resistance lies in the zone 153.40-153.50, followed by levels 154.40 and 156.25. According to some analysts, the monthly high of June 1990 at around 155.80 and then the reversal high of April 1990 at 160.30 can also serve as references.

No significant events or publications regarding the state of the Japanese economy are planned for the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: On the Eve of Hour X

The next halving, when the reward for mining a BTC block will again be halved, is scheduled for Saturday, 20 April. Although this date is approximate and may shift a day or two either way, the closer the Hour X, the hotter the discussions about how the price of the main cryptocurrency will behave before and after this event.

Historically, the value of bitcoin has risen after halvings: it surged by nearly 9000% to $1162 in 2012, by about 4200% to $19800 in 2016, and by 683% to $69000 following the previous halving in May 2020. However, it then crashed to nearly $16,000.

Lucas Kiely, CIO of the financial platform Yield App, believes that we should not expect a seven-fold increase in the price of bitcoin after the upcoming halving. According to Kiely, during the three previous cycles, the halving of miners' rewards heralded a massive increase in volatility levels. After the halving, BTC fell by 30-40% but then soared to unprecedented heights within 480 days. However, this year, he suspects, the cryptocurrency's flight to the Moon will not occur.

Kiely predicts that bitcoin will update its historical maximum reached this March at $73,743. However, the new peak will not exceed the previous one by as much as before, due to the low level of volatility. The specialist attributes the drop in volatility to two factors: 1. an increase in the number of bitcoins in the wallets of hodlers, who own more than 70% of the issued coins, and 2. the creation of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which remove a huge amount of coins from circulation. (In the three months since their inception, the capitalization of 10 such ETFs (excluding the Grayscale fund) has exceeded $12 billion). As a result, bitcoin is becoming a more traditional asset that is less risky but also less likely to yield massive profits. Kiely believes that this factor makes the coin more attractive to institutional investors and older people who prefer to invest in reliable assets and are not interested in gambling.

Ex-CEO of the BitMEX exchange, Arthur Hayes, expects a price drop. In his view, the halving is certainly a bullish catalyst for the crypto market in the medium term. However, prices might fall immediately before and after the event. "The narrative that the halving of block rewards will positively affect cryptocurrency prices has firmly taken root," says the expert. "However, when most market participants agree on a certain outcome, the opposite usually happens."

Hayes noted that the market would face a reduction in US dollar liquidity in the second half of April, driven by tax season, Fed policies, and the strengthening of the US Treasury's balance sheet. This reduction in liquidity will provide additional stimulus for a "furious sell-off of cryptocurrencies," he believes. "Can the market defy my bearish forecasts and continue to grow? I hope so. I have been involved with cryptocurrency for a long time, so I welcome being proven wrong."

The situation before this halving is indeed very different from before. This change is linked to the large influx of institutional investors through the newly launched Bitcoin ETFs in early January. The influence of ETFs on spot trading is clearly reflected in the reduced market activity on weekends and US public holidays when the exchange funds do not operate. The tax season has also significantly impacted the market for risky assets. Over the last two weeks, inflows into these funds have been significantly below the average mark of $203 million, with recent days seeing an outflow of funds from Grayscale and Ark Invest. Other ETFs are also reporting reduced inflows. All this suggests that Arthur Hayes' concerns are well-founded, and a 30% drop from the current price could send bitcoin down to around $50,000.

Miners, who will lose half their income after the halving, while the costs of obtaining the same amount of coins will increase, could also contribute to a market crash. After the halving in May 2020, the costs of mining rose to $30,000. Currently, the average cost of mining one BTC is $49,900, but after 20 April, according to Ki Young Ju, CEO of the analytical platform CryptoQuant, it will exceed $80,000. Therefore, the asset must trade above this level for miners to continue making any profit. However, as previously mentioned, a rapid price surge may not occur. This means that small mining companies and individual miners are facing a wave of bankruptcies and acquisitions.

According to Arthur Hayes, the situation might improve in May-June: the US Treasury will "most likely release an additional $1 trillion of liquidity into the system, which will pump the markets," he says. Anthony Scaramucci, CEO of Skybridge, also holds that spot Bitcoin ETFs, acting as "selling machines," will continue to stimulate demand for the first cryptocurrency from both retail customers and institutional investors. Scaramucci believes that in this cycle, bitcoin's value could increase by 2.5 times, and then continue to rise. "I'm just saying that the capitalization of bitcoin could reach half that of gold, i.e., increase six or even eight times from its current levels," the businessman declared. It's noteworthy that the current capitalization of bitcoin stands at $1.35 trillion, while gold's is at $15.8 trillion. Thus, if BTC reaches half the capitalization of the precious metal, its price would be around $400,000 per coin.

Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, also places his hopes on spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to him, BTC-ETFs have attracted real institutional investments into the industry for the first time, so he is "very optimistic" about the macroeconomic trends in the crypto industry. In this context, Garlinghouse allowed that the market capitalization of digital assets could double by the end of the year, exceeding $5.0 trillion.

As of the evening of Friday, 12 April, BTC/USD is trading at around $66,900. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $2.44 trillion ($2.53 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in the Extreme Greed zone at 79 points.

In conclusion, a bit of curious statistics: In anticipation of the halving, Deutsche Bank conducted a survey regarding the future price of bitcoin. 15% of respondents stated that within this year, BTC would trade in the range above $40,000 but below $75,000. A third of respondents were confident that the value of the main cryptocurrency would fall below $20,000 early in the next year. Meanwhile, 38% of those surveyed believed that BTC would cease to exist in the market altogether. And finally, about 1% of respondents called bitcoin a complete misunderstanding and speculation.


NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 08 – 12 April 2024

EUR/USD: The Dollar Weakness Puzzle

What transpired with the EUR/USD pair last week? It behaved as expected on Monday, 01 April. However, starting from Tuesday, the situation deviated. Let's delve into the details. On the first day of April, data on business activity in the US industrial sector from the ISM for March showed the economy is on the rise: PMI increased from 47.8 to 50.3 points, crossing the 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction. This marked the end of a downward trend lasting over 15 months. With this sector accounting for over 10% of the US GDP, the PMI growth is a vital indicator of an economy that easily withstands high interest rates. Thus, logically, this data benefited the dollar, pushing the pair to 1.0730 - its lowest since 15 February. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East also supported the strengthening of the American currency as a safe haven.

On the following day, Tuesday, preliminary data on inflation in Germany was released. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in this powerhouse of the European economy showed a monthly increase of 0.4%, below the forecast of 0.6%. Year-on-year inflation slowed from 2.5% in February to 2.2% in March – the lowest since May 2021. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) fell from 2.7% to 2.3%. Such a slowdown in inflation should have fuelled hopes for the ECB to soon start cutting rates, thereby weakening the euro further. However, instead of continuing its downward movement, EUR/USD reversed and moved north.  

Wednesday revealed that inflation is declining not just in Germany but across the Eurozone as a whole. Year-on-year, the preliminary Core Consumer Price Index dropped from 3.1% to 2.9%, surpassing the expectations of 3.0%, and the CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.4% (y/y). Despite this, EUR/USD continued its stubborn climb.

The dollar was not aided by another batch of strong data from the US either. Published macroeconomic figures showed that the number of JOLTS job openings rose to 8.756 million in February compared to 8.748 million the previous month, better than the market forecast. Moreover, the volume of manufacturing orders in February increased by 1.4% after a decrease of 3.8% at the beginning of the year.

A trend reversal began to emerge following speeches by US Federal Reserve officials. For instance, Loretta Mester, President of the Cleveland Fed, stated that the central bank sees a significant risk in easing national monetary policy too soon, especially in the context of a strong labour market and steady economic growth. Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, echoed this sentiment in a speech at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, reiterating that there is no rush to cut rates as inflationary risks persist.

The situation returned to a logical path with a new batch of data from the US labour market released on 04 and 05 April. According to the ADP report on employment levels in the private sector, employers hired 184K new workers in March, exceeding the forecast of 148K and the previous figure of 155K. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) added to the picture with information that non-farm employment (NFP) in the US rose by 303K. This significantly surpassed market expectations of 200K. The BLS report also showed that the unemployment rate in the country dropped to 3.8% from 3.9%.

Given all of the above, it can be expected that the Fed will not rush to ease its monetary policy. The likelihood of a rate cut in June dropped to 61% from 70% a week ago, and according to economists at Commerzbank, it is virtually nil. Naturally, such a shift in expectations should support the strengthening of the national currency. Yet, this has not occurred. EUR/USD has not managed to consolidate below 1.0800, and its last chord was played at 1.0836.

As for the short-term forecast, as of the writing of this review on the evening of Friday, 05 April, 50% of experts voted for the strengthening of the dollar and further decline of the pair. 10% sided with the euro, and 40% took a neutral stance. Among the oscillators on D1, only 15% are coloured green, 35% red, with the majority in a state of indecision, coloured neutral grey. The trend indicators have a 60:40 ratio in favour of the greens. The nearest support for the pair is located in the 1.0795-1.0800 zone, followed by 1.0725, 1.0680-1.0695, 1.0620, 1.0495-1.0515, and 1.0450. Resistance zones are at 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0965-1.0980, 1.1015, 1.1050, and 1.1100-1.1140.

This upcoming week, on Wednesday, 10 April, a whole set of data on consumer inflation (CPI) in the United States will be released. That same day, the Minutes of the last FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve will be published. The key day of the week will undoubtedly be Thursday, 11 April, when the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting is scheduled. Market participants' attention will be focused not only on the regulator's decisions on the interest rate but also on subsequent comments by its leadership. That day, the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the number of initial jobless claims from US residents will also be published. The working week will conclude with the publication on 12 April of the revised German CPI and the University of Michigan's US Consumer Sentiment Index.

GBP/USD: A Result Close to Zero

Last week, final data on the Business Activity Index in the UK for March were revised downwards. The Services PMI was reduced from 53.8 to 53.1, the lowest figure since November of the previous year. A survey of financiers who make decisions at the Bank of England (BoE) showed a slight decrease in inflation expectations to 3.2% (y/y) and an anticipated reduction in wage sizes over the next year. It is noteworthy that these forecast indicators have decreased for the first time in seven months. However, this did not significantly affect GBP/USD dynamics; the tone of its quotes was set by the Dollar Index (DXY).

Starting the past week at 1.2635, the pair finished it at 1.2637. Thus, the result of the week can be considered zero. Analysts' opinions on the behaviour of GBP/USD in the near future are divided as follows: the majority (60%) voted for the pair's fall, 40% remained neutral, and no one wished to side with the bulls. The indicators on D1 are as follows: among the oscillators, 50% recommend selling, 10% suggest buying, and the remaining 40% are in the neutral zone. Trend indicators point south by 60%, north by 40%. If the pair moves south, it will encounter levels and support zones at 1.2575, 1.2500-1.2535, 1.2450, 1.2375, 1.2330, 1.2085-1.2210, 1.2110, and 1.2035-1.2070. In case of an increase, it will face resistance at levels 1.2695, 1.2755-1.2775, 1.2800-1.2820, 1.2880-1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, and 1.3140.

The calendar for the upcoming week highlights Friday, 12 April, when GDP statistics for the United Kingdom will be released. No other significant events affecting the country's economy are scheduled for the coming days.

USD/JPY: A Break Above 152.00 – A Matter of Time?


For two and a half weeks, USD/JPY has been moving in a sideways channel, unsuccessfully attempting to rise above 152.00. Fear of possible currency interventions by the Japanese Ministry of Finance prevents the bulls from breaking this resistance. While actual interventions have not yet occurred, there has been plenty of verbal intervention from high-ranking Japanese officials. For example, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki once again stated that the authorities are closely monitoring the situation and do not exclude any options to combat excessive currency movements.

Despite such statements, the yen remains under pressure, increasing the likelihood of the pair's bullish trend continuing. According to strategists at the American bank Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH), the continuation of the upward rally is just a matter of time. They write that a very gradual tightening of the Bank of Japan's policy, coupled with a softer than previously anticipated Federal Reserve easing cycle, serves as a fundamental catalyst.

The market sentiment, according to several analysts, does not contradict BBH's forecast. Currently, according to statistics, most traders (up to 80%) are in sell positions for USD/JPY, which increases the chances of the market moving against the crowd.

The pair finished last week at 151.61. As for its near future, 80% of experts (i.e., the same percentage as the traders) sided with the bears for the pair, voting for further strengthening of the American currency, while the remaining 20% voted otherwise. Technical analysis tools are clearly unaware of fears regarding possible currency interventions. Therefore, all 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on D1 point north, with only 15% of the latter looking south. The nearest support level is located in the zone of 150.85, 149.70-150.00, 148.40, 147.30-147.60, 146.50, 145.90, 144.90-145.30, 143.40-143.75, 142.20, and 140.25-140.60. Resistances are placed at the following levels and zones – 151.85-152.00, 153.15, and 156.25.

No significant events related to the Japanese economy are scheduled for the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: A Week of Unexpected Announcements

After bitcoin reached a new historical high of $73,743 on 14 March, BTC/USD sharply pulled back, losing approximately 17.5%. A local minimum was recorded at $60,778. This moment marked a record outflow of funds from exchange-traded funds, with bitcoin accounting for 96%. The departure of institutional capital from the crypto sphere overlapped with many investors and miners' desire to secure profits after updating the price record. At the peak, the realized profit exceeded $2 billion per day, with a third attributable to investors in Grayscale. Analysts at JPMorgan, in a note to investors dated 21 March, mentioned the overbought condition of the cryptocurrency and the risk of a continued correction.

However, a further downfall did not occur; the market sentiment changed. While crypto funds continued to lose assets, crypto exchanges registered an increase in the withdrawal of coins to cold wallets. Whales and sharks returned to accumulating the main cryptocurrency, expecting new BTC records in anticipation of or following the halving. If the net outflow amounted to $888 million in the week of 18-24 March, it changed to an inflow of $860 million in the week of 25-31 March. The record for coin accumulation by hodlers was 25,300 BTC per day. Bitcoin reached a high of $71,675 on 27 March.

The first half of the past week brought a new wave of sales; however, analysts at Coinshares believe that the absolute majority of investment companies and hedge funds are not interested in lowering BTC quotes, and whales will try to prevent a collapse below $60,000. The absence of new price records in those days was compensated by a series of if not sensational, then at least unexpected announcements made by crypto influencers.

For instance, CoinChapter reported that the head of Tesla and SpaceX, Elon Musk, declared meme coins Dogecoin (DOGE) the official currency of the colony to be built on Mars. "The brave colonists heading to the Red Planet will be rough and ruthless people. They won't drag gold bars with them. They will need a fast and fun currency that embodies the spirit of space travel. Dogecoin meets all these criteria," Musk said. One might expect such inspiring words to propel the token's price to cosmic heights, but this did not happen. Instead, it slightly declined. This may be related to the fact that the aforementioned information appeared on 1 April – April Fool's Day or All Fools' Day. Thus, it's possible that Musk was merely joking with his fans by assigning DOGE the status of Martian currency.

Attention was also drawn to a statement by the founder of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), who was sentenced to 25 years in prison. Arrest did not prevent him from giving an interview to ABC News. In it, SBF stated that if he or another FTX employee had remained as CEO, the clients of the bankrupt exchange "would have long returned their money" at the current rate. Hence, the question arises: why not give Sam such an opportunity? Let him first compensate the clients for their losses and then go to jail.

Sam Bankman-Fried is far from the only notable crypto figure of interest to US law enforcement agencies. Changpeng Zhao, co-founder and former CEO of the Binance exchange, also faced court proceedings. However, last week, he made headlines not in the criminal chronicle but in Forbes' new billionaire ranking, where he placed 50th with a net worth of $33 billion. (Bloomberg's own index attributes Zhao with assets amounting to an even larger sum – $45.1 billion). Note that the Forbes list also includes other representatives of the crypto industry. For example, Brian Armstrong, co-founder and CEO of Coinbase, was ranked 180th with $11.2 billion. In total, the publication counted 17 entrepreneurs associated with cryptocurrencies with a net worth of over a billion dollars.

Another unexpected statement came from the pen of "Rich Dad Poor Dad" author and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki. He is widely known for his numerous constant calls not to save "fake dollars" that will soon turn into worthless paper but to buy gold, silver, and bitcoin. Kiyosaki repeated this mantra again this time, not ruling out that bitcoin could ... crash to zero! According to him, it's possible that the first cryptocurrency is as much a fraud or a Ponzi scheme as the US dollar, euro, yen, or any other "fake" fiat currency.

As of the writing of this review on the evening of Friday, 05 April, bitcoin quotes are far from zero; the BTC/USD pair is trading around $67,680. The total market capitalization of the crypto market has slightly decreased and stands at $2.53 trillion ($2.68 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell from 80 to 79 points, remaining in the Extreme Greed zone.

We have already detailed the history and meaning of halvings in a previous review. Now, we remind you that the upcoming fourth halving is expected to take place soon, most likely on 20 April. After this event, according to Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, "interest in the asset will increase – many will enter FOMO mode. We should see a twofold increase in fair value. In the current cycle, it stands at ~$75,000 with downward adjustments. [...] Thus, [by the end of the year] we get $150,000," he shared his calculations on CNBC. Yusko also believes that "historically, about nine months after the event, a price peak will be formed before the next bear market."

The senior manager called the first cryptocurrency the "dominant token" and the "best form of gold". Regarding long-term prospects, the expert stated that bitcoin "can easily" increase tenfold over the next decade. Separately, the head of Morgan Creek Capital mentioned that his hedge fund likes Ethereum, Solana, and Avalanche, although they fall short of the "king-bitcoin". Mark Yusko did not mention Elon Musk's "Martian" Dogecoin at all...

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

World Forex Award Recognizes NordFX as Best Broker in Two Categories

Experts from one of the leading business awards organisations, the World Forex Award (WFA), have named NordFX as the winner in two categories: The Most Trusted Forex Broker and The Best IB Program 2024.

The award for The Most Trusted Forex Broker is particularly valuable because trust is a key aspect in the world of finance. When a company is acknowledged as the most reliable broker, it serves as a mark of quality for both potential and existing clients. It helps to strengthen the trust between the client and the broker, which is extremely important in the long term. Winning this award distinguishes the company among competitors and highlights its commitment to high standards of service and security. Victory in this category confirms that NordFX adheres to the best industry practices, ensuring a high level of customer service, transparency, and the protection of their interests.

Before reaching their verdict, WFA experts assessed how open, comprehensive, and timely the information provided by the company to interested parties was, and whether it was presented in a form that was understandable and necessary for making objective decisions. The role played by the fact that over its 16 years operating in financial markets, NordFX has always resolved any disputes that occasionally arose in its interactions with clients openly and, when necessary, with the involvement of independent experts, was also significant.

Equally valuable is NordFX's victory in The Best IB Program category. Since 2016, the company has received such awards repeatedly, year after year, confirming the high quality and efficiency of its partnership program, including excellent conditions for participants that encompass continuous support and impressive commissions. This has helped tens of thousands of program participants dramatically improve their lives. It's worth noting that in the past year, 2023, the actual earnings of NordFX's IB partners in the top 3 totalled USD 272,607, meaning that, on average, each partner earned USD 7,572 per month. In total, more than USD 35,000,000 was paid out in partnership rewards.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

March 2024: NordFX Traders Yield Maximum Profits from Physical and Digital Gold

NordFX brokerage has summarized the trading performance of its clients for March 2024. The effectiveness of social trading services: PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profits earned by the company's IB partners, were also evaluated.

- The best result in March was achieved by a trader from Western Asia, account number 1654XXX, with a profit of 26,941 USD, achieved through transactions with gold (XAU/USD).

- The gold pair XAU/USD, along with the British pound and Japanese yen (GBP/USD and GBP/JPY), assisted a client from South Asia, account number 1723XXX, in securing the second place on the podium with a result of 24,778 USD.

- Third place went to a trader from across the Pacific, account number 1567XXX. Unlike physical gold, they traded in an asset commonly referred to as "digital gold" – bitcoin (BTC/USD), through which they were able to earn 24,531 USD.

In NordFX's passive investment services, the following situation has emerged:

In the PAMM service, we have previously drawn investors' attention to an account named Kikos2. After 135 days of operation, it has shown a profit of 548%. This is a very impressive result; however, with such aggressive trading, the maximum drawdown is also quite serious: about 60%.

Investors familiar with NordFX's passive investment services are likely aware of the accounts named KennyFXPRO, the oldest of which started over three years ago. This time, we would like to highlight another account from this group called KennyFXPRO - Road 250. Launched 120 days ago, it has shown a profit of more than 20%, with a very moderate maximum drawdown:less than 7%.

In CopyTrading, we continue to monitor the yahmat-forex signal, which has shown a return of 372% over 282 days with a maximum drawdown of 37%. Here, as usual, it's appropriate to remind that aggressive trading, besides high profit, also carries high risks and can lead to partial or total loss of the deposit. Therefore, we urge all traders and investors to exercise maximum caution when operating in financial markets.

Among NordFX's IB partners, representatives from South and West Asia have entered the top 3:
- The highest commission reward of 5,500 USD was awarded to a partner from South Asia with account number 1682XXX;
- Following was a partner from West Asia (account number 1645XXX), who received 5,053 USD;
- And finally, another partner from South Asia (account number 1593XXX) closes the top three leaders, having received a reward of 4,238 USD.

***

Concluding the month's review, it's worth reminding that NordFX clients now have another great opportunity to boost their budget. In the 2024 super lottery, 202+4 cash prizes will be drawn, totalling 100,000 USD. Becoming a participant in the lottery and getting a chance to win one or even several of these prizes is quite straightforward. All details can be found on the NordFX website.

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 25 - 29, 2024

EUR/USD: Switzerland Strengthens the Dollar

The key event of the past week was undoubtedly the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve on March 20. As expected, the American Central Bank unanimously decided to maintain the key interest rate at its highest level in 23 years, 5.50%, for the fifth consecutive meeting. Since the rate was anticipated, market participants were significantly more interested in the comments and forecasts of the Fed's leadership. The most important statement came from the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, who mentioned the consideration of three stages of borrowing cost reduction this year, totalling 75 basis points (bps). The long-term rate forecast was raised from 2.50% to 2.60%.

In comments following the meeting, solid growth in the United States economy was noted. The GDP forecast for this year was increased from 1.4% to 2.1%, and for 2025 from 1.8% to 2.0%. The labour market also appears to be in good health, with unemployment at a low level. According to the new forecast, it could reach 4.0%, compared to the previously expected 4.1%. The number of new jobs created outside of the agriculture sector (NonFarm Payrolls) in February was 275K, significantly exceeding both the previous figure of 229K and the forecast of 198K.

Regarding inflation, while it has eased, it remains "elevated," as noted in the statement. Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for February showed a 3.2% increase on a year-over-year basis. Inflation is anticipated to settle at 2.4% by the end of 2024, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index expected to be at 2.6%. Previously, both figures were forecasted to be 2.4% in December.

The comments emphasized that the long-term objective is to bring inflation down to 2.0% while achieving maximum employment. Thus, the Federal Reserve will remain vigilant about inflationary risks. Adjustments to monetary policy parameters may be made if factors emerge that obstruct its objectives. These factors include, but are not limited to, the labor market situation, economic growth, inflation in the US, the state of the global economy, and international events.

As already mentioned, the principal scenario for 2024 includes three rate reductions of 25 basis points each. Nonetheless, members of the FOMC have not discounted the possibility of there being just two or even one reduction. A survey by Reuters found that 72 out of 108 economists, or two-thirds, anticipate the first rate cut to occur in June, with the subsequent ones expected in the fall of this year.

The stock market responded positively to the outcomes of the Federal Reserve's meeting. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices all moved higher, a reaction not mirrored by the Dollar Index (DXY), as news of the beginning of monetary policy easing did not please investors. As a result, EUR/USD surged sharply. However, on March 21, the American currency recouped its losses after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.5% at its quarterly meeting, contrary to market expectations of maintaining the rate at 1.75%.

"The easing of monetary policy was made possible thanks to the effective combat against inflation over the last two and a half years," the SNB stated. "Inflation has been below 2% for several months and is within the range that corresponds to the definition of price stability. According to the latest forecast, inflation is expected to remain within this range in the coming years."

Thus, the SNB became the first major central bank to start easing its policy after a long cycle of rate increases due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, traders "forgot" about the Fed's rate cut signals and began buying dollars, as they currently remain the only high-yield currency with a low risk level.

Support for the dollar towards the end of the working week was also provided by the business activity data in the US published on March 21. The S&P Global Composite PMI index increased to 52.5 from 52.2, and while the PMI index for the services sector decreased from 52.3 to 51.7, it remained above the 50.0 threshold that separates economic growth from contraction. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia manufacturing sector business activity index exceeded forecasts, reaching 3.2, and the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week fell from 215K to 210K.

EUR/USD concluded the past five-day week at a mark of 1.0808. Regarding the forecast for the near future, as of the writing of this review on the evening of Friday, March 22, 50% of experts voted for the strengthening of the dollar and further decline of the pair. 20% sided with the euro, and 30% took a neutral stance. Among the oscillators on D1, only 15% are coloured green, 85% are coloured red, with a quarter of them indicating the pair is oversold. For trend indicators, the greens have 10%, while the reds hold an absolute majority of 90%. The nearest support for the pair is located in the zone of 1.0795-1.0800, followed by 1.0725, 1.0680-1.0695, 1.0620, 1.0495-1.0515, and 1.0450. Resistance zones are found in the areas of 1.0835-1.0865, 1.0900-1.0920, 1.0965-1.0980, 1.1015, 1.1050, and 1.1100-1.1140.

The upcoming trading week will be shorter than usual due to Good Friday in Catholic countries, where banks and stock exchanges will be closed. It will also be the last week of the month and the first quarter. Market participants will be summarizing the quarter, and there will be few important statistical releases. Nevertheless, notable in the calendar is Thursday, March 28, when data on retail sales in Germany will be released, as well as revised annual data on the US GDP and the volume of jobless claims. On Friday, March 29, despite the holiday, statistics on the consumer market in the United States will be released, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak.

GBP/USD: BoE Hawks Morph into Doves

Data on consumer inflation in the UK, released on Wednesday, March 20, a day ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) meeting, indicated a slight deceleration and fell a bit below expectations. The year-on-year CPI slowed from 4.0% to 3.4%, against the anticipated 3.5%. February's core CPI, on an annual basis, dropped to 4.5% after three months of stability at 5.1%. Conversely, the CPI saw a month-on-month increase of 0.6% following a decline of the same magnitude in January, yet this increase still fell short of the market's 0.7% expectation. February saw producer purchase prices decrease by 0.4%, with a year-on-year loss of 2.7%, returning to levels seen in May 2022 due to decreases in energy, metals, and some agricultural product prices.

Just a few hours before the regulator's meeting, preliminary business activity data were also released, showing positive but mixed results. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.9, closely approaching the critical 50.0 mark (with a forecast of 47.8 and a previous value of 47.5). The services sector index, in contrast, dropped from 53.8 to 53.4, despite expectations that it would hold steady. Consequently, the Composite PMI edged down from 53.0 to 52.9, remaining within the growth zone of the economy.

Regarding the Bank of England's meeting on Thursday, March 21, as expected, the regulator kept the key interest rate for the pound unchanged at 5.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting. The Governor, Andrew Bailey, stated that the economy has not yet reached the stage where rates can be lowered but added that everything is moving in the "right direction."   

The surprise came when two members of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee, who had previously voted for a rate increase, reversed their position, leading to renewed selling of the pound. According to economists at Japan's MUFG Bank, the voting outcome "justifies an increased likelihood of an earlier rate cut than we had anticipated. [...] Whether the Bank of England makes the final decision in June or August remains an open question. We maintain our view that there will be a rate cut of 100 basis points this year." "The pound could suffer further in the short term if the market's conviction in a June rate cut strengthens, along with the potential magnitude of rate cuts for this year," the MUFG specialists added.

"Indeed, the Bank of England has taken another step towards reducing interest rates," echo their colleagues at Germany's Commerzbank. "But whether this will happen sooner than expected, simply because none of the policymakers voted for a rate increase, is not entirely clear yet." Commerzbank believes that "against the backdrop of the overall dovish sentiment triggered by the SNB's unexpected rate cut, the pound ended up on the losing side and became the second-worst currency. Also, depending on market sentiments, it has the chance to become one of the most vulnerable currencies."

Starting the past week at a level of 1.2734, GBP/USD concluded it at 1.2599. Analyst opinions on its near-term direction were split: half (50%) voted for the pair's decline, 25% for its rise, and 25% maintained neutrality. The indicator readings on D1 are exactly the same as for EUR/USD. Among oscillators, only 15% look north, 85% south, with a quarter of them signalling the pair is oversold. For trend indicators, 10% recommend buying, and 90% selling. Should the pair move southward, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2575, 1.2500-1.2535, 1.2450, 1.2375, 1.2330, 1.2085-1.2210, 1.2110, 1.2035-1.2070. In the event of an upward movement, resistance will be met at levels 1.2635, 1.2730-1.2755, 1.2800-1.2820, 1.2880-1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, and 1.3140.

No significant events related to the economy of the United Kingdom are scheduled for the upcoming week. Traders should also bear in mind that March 29 is a public holiday in the country due to Good Friday.

USD/JPY: How the BoJ Sank the Yen

In theory, if the interest rate rises, the currency strengthens. But that's just in theory. Reality can differ significantly, as demonstrated by the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) meeting on Tuesday, March 19.

Until that point, the BoJ had been the only central bank in the world to maintain a negative interest rate level of -0.1% since February 2016. Now, for the first time in 17 years, the regulator raised it to a range of 0.0-0.1% per annum. It also abandoned control over the yield of ten-year government bonds (YCC). As media reports, this move "represents a departure from the most aggressive and unconventional monetary easing policy we have seen in modern history." Yet, following this momentous decision, instead of appreciating, the yen ... plummeted, and USD/JPY reached a high of 151.85. Analysts believe this happened because each of these central bank actions met market expectations and had already been priced in.

Data on inflation in Japan for February, published towards the end of the workweek, offered some support to the Japanese currency. The country's Statistical Bureau reported that the annual national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.8%, up from 2.2% previously. As a result, investors concluded that the persistence of price pressure above the target level of 2.0% would allow the Bank of Japan to maintain interest rates at a positive level.

However, maintaining rates does not mean increasing them. And as economists from ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, wrote, the yen's position depends more on the Federal Reserve's rate cuts than on a rate hike by the BoJ. They stated: "It will be difficult for the yen to sustainably strengthen beyond volatility around the rate hike until rates in the US are lowered."

The yen received another, but very weak, support from growing speculations about possible intervention by the Japanese government in the currency sphere, in simpler terms, about currency interventions. Japan's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, did declare that currency movements should be stable and that he is closely monitoring exchange rate fluctuations. However, these were merely words, not concrete actions, thus they didn't significantly aid the national currency. As a result, the week concluded with the pair marking the final note at 151.43.

Regarding the near future of USD/JPY, the bearish camp for the pair comprises 50% of experts, 40% remain undecided, and 10% voted for further strengthening of the US currency. Technical analysis tools seem to be unaware of rumours about possible currency interventions. Consequently, all 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are pointing upwards, with 20% of the latter in the overbought zone. The nearest support levels are found at 150.85, 149.70, 148.40, 147.30-147.60, 146.50, 145.90, 144.90-145.30, 143.40-143.75, 142.20, and 140.25-140.60. Resistance levels and zones are located at 151.85-152.00, 153.15, and 156.25.

On Friday, March 29, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) values for the Tokyo region will be published. Besides this, no other significant events related to the Japanese economy are scheduled for the coming days.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bitcoin – The Calm Before the Halving


After bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $73,743 on March 14, a wave of selloffs and profit-taking by short-term speculators followed. BTC/USD sharply retreated, losing approximately 17.5%. A local minimum was recorded at $60,778, after which the leading cryptocurrency, in anticipation of the halving, began to gain momentum again.

It's worth recalling that a halving is an event that occurs approximately every four years, after another 210,000 blocks have been mined, and results in the mining reward for a new block in the bitcoin blockchain being cut in half. This naturally raises the question: why is this done? The halving is designed as a mechanism to combat inflation. As miners' rewards decrease, fewer new coins are produced with each round. This is intended to maintain a scarcity of bitcoin in the market and positively impact the token's price from a supply and demand perspective.

The total issuance of bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins. As of December 2023, miners have already extracted 19.5 million coins, which is nearly 93% of the total volume. Halvings will continue until the last bitcoin is mined, which is forecasted to occur sometime between 2040 and 2048. In 2040 (the 8th halving), miners' rewards will be 0.1953125 BTC, and in 2048 (the 10th halving) – 0.048828125 BTC. After this, miners will earn income solely from transaction fees. The upcoming, fourth halving is most likely to take place on April 20 this year, with the reward for mined blocks decreasing from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

Thanks to the hype surrounding spot bitcoin ETFs and the FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) effect in anticipation of the halving, a certain scarcity of the main cryptocurrency is already observable. According to Bitcointreasuries, a significant portion of BTC is owned by state and private investment companies, governments, exchange and investment funds. In total, they hold approximately 12% of the total volume of bitcoins. About 10% is stored on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges, and another 8.09% belongs to accounts that have been inactive for many years. Adding to these figures the share of the asset attributed to bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto (4.76%), it can be concluded that about 35% of mined coins are already unavailable to other private investors.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, iShares Bitcoin Trust, and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund lead in terms of bitcoin ownership volumes with 380,241 BTC, 230,617 BTC, and 132,571 BTC, respectively. MicroStrategy has become the largest holder of bitcoins among public companies with 205,000 BTC on its balance sheet. Marathon Digital holds the second position with 15,741 BTC, while Tesla and Coinbase Global share the third and fourth places with 9,720 BTC and 9,480 BTC, respectively. Among other, non-public, private companies, Block.one leads in ownership level with 164,000 BTC, according to available information. It is followed by the MTGOX exchange with a balance of 141,686 BTC. Stablecoin issuer Tether owns 66,465 BTC. The fourth position is taken by the BitMEX exchange with 57,672 BTC.

In the ranking of bitcoin ownership among countries, the USA leads with 215,000 BTC, followed by China with 190,000 BTC, the UK with 61,000 BTC, and Germany with 50,000 BTC.

Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank have revised their bitcoin price target for the end of 2024 from $100,000 to $150,000, with ethereum potentially reaching $8,000 by the same period. By the end of 2025, the first and second cryptocurrencies could appreciate to $200,000 and $14,000, respectively. The specialists justify their forecast by the dynamics of gold following the approval of bitcoin ETFs and the optimization of the precious metal to its digital counterpart in an 80% to 20% ratio.

According to Standard Chartered experts, bitcoin could appreciate further – up to $250,000 – if inflows into ETFs reach $75 billion. Sovereign investment funds' actions could also accelerate growth rates. "We see an increasing likelihood that major reserve managers might announce bitcoin purchases in 2024," say the bank's analysts.

Dan Tapiero, CEO of investment firm 10T Holdings, mentioned a similar figure – $200,000. "I don't think it's that crazy," he stated. According to the financier's calculations, the potential to triple from the current price roughly corresponds to the percentage difference between the peaks of 2017 and 2021. Furthermore, from the bear market lows to the 2021 peak, digital gold increased in value 20 times. This suggests a $300,000 target as a positive scenario.

"It's hard to pinpoint exact markers and timing in these matters. I think we will reach that [zone] within the next 18-24 months, perhaps even sooner," Tapiero believes. "The supply cut during the rapid increase in demand for ETFs along with the halving indicate a significant growth potential. I think the first cryptocurrency will pull the rest along with it." The CEO of 10T Holdings also noted "good chances" for the approval of ETFs based on Ethereum. However, he hesitated to say whether these ETFs would be registered in May or if it would happen later.

OpenAI's ChatGPT, when asked whether the BTC price could reach the $100,000 mark before the halving, deemed this target plausible. According to the AI's calculations, the recent correction does not affect growth prospects and only confirms the inaccuracy of short-term forecasts. ChatGPT estimated the probability of reaching $100,000 at 40%, while the likelihood of hitting the $85,000 mark was assessed at 60%.

As of the writing of this review, on the evening of Friday, March 22, BTC/USD is trading around $63,000. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has decreased to $2.39 trillion (from $2.58 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped from 83 to 75 points, moving from the Extreme Greed zone to the Greed zone.

Despite the recent halt in bitcoin's decline, some experts do not rule out the possibility that BTC/USD could take another dip southward. For instance, Kris Marszalek, CEO of Crypto.com, believes that the current volatility of BTC is still low compared to previous cycles. This implies that with an increase in volatility, not only new highs but also new lows could be set.

Analysts at JPMorgan believe that bitcoin could fall by 33% after the halving. Meanwhile, Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, is confident that the floor is at $50,000, and the price of the coin will never fall below that level unless some dramatic event occurs. According to him, bitcoin's growth is primarily driven by investors' insatiable appetite for the token, rather than macroeconomic factors such as the policy of the US Federal Reserve. This was evidenced by the fact that the price of bitcoin hardly noticed the Federal Reserve's meeting on March 20.


NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]