Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

The Price of Silver Has Reached Its Highest Level in Over Three Years
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As indicated by the XAG/USD chart today, the intraday price of silver reached $29.84 per ounce yesterday, while the previous yearly high on 12 April was $29.79. The last time this price was seen was in February 2021.

It is worth noting that today the price of silver is behaving more bullishly than the price of gold, which is approximately 1.5% below its April high.

The main factor contributing to the rise in the price of silver is likely the weakening of the US dollar, as traders expect the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy.

Can the price of silver continue to rise? Analysts are generally bullish. As CNBC reports:
→ Saxo Bank strategists recently stated in an analytical review that the price of silver could rise to $30, while gold could soon test the $2,400 level.
→ Analysts at ROTH Capital Partners forecast that the prices of gold and silver will rise even higher in the coming months. According to JC O'Hara, Chief Market Technician, if the price breaks the $30 level, "there will be few resistance levels until the $35/$37 range."

Let’s provide more data for a technical analysis of the silver market.
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The Share Price of Alibaba (BABA) Has Reached Its Yearly High
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On 14 May, Alibaba released its first-quarter performance report:
→ Earnings per share: actual = $1.404, expected = $1.421;
→ Gross income: actual = $30.716 billion, expected = $30.502 billion.

The fact that earnings per share were slightly below expectations did not disappoint investors much, as on 16 May, Alibaba's share price (BABA) reached a yearly high, exceeding $86, forming a wide bullish candlestick with a close near the top (a sign of strong demand).

Positive sentiments were also driven by:
→ Another Chinese company, JD.com, released a report that exceeded expectations;
→ US regulators published information that well-known investor Michael Burry invested in Alibaba shares. David Tepper, head of the hedge fund Appaloosa Management, also holds a bullish outlook;
→ According to a note published on X (Twitter) by Citron Research analysts, Alibaba's share price could rise to $100.
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Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Set Sights on Additional Upside
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AUD/USD started a decent increase above the 0.6655 resistance. NZD/USD is also rising and could aim for a move above the 0.6140 resistance.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar found support at 0.6585 and recovered higher against the US Dollar.
  
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6670 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
  
• NZD/USD is consolidating gains above the 0.6100 support.
  
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6100 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.
  

AUD/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair formed a base above 0.6585. The Aussie Dollar started a decent increase above the 0.6630 resistance against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.

The bulls pushed the pair above the 0.6655 resistance zone. There was a close above the 0.6685 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6715 zone. A high was formed at 0.6714 before the pair corrected gains.

It tested the 0.6655 zone and is currently consolidating gains. There was a fresh increase above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6714 swing high to the 0.6654 low.

On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6714 swing high to the 0.6654 low at 0.6685. The first major resistance might be 0.6715.

An upside break above the 0.6715 resistance might send the pair further higher. The next major resistance is near the 0.6750 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.6800 resistance zone.

If not, the pair might correct lower. Immediate support is near a major bullish trend line at 0.6670. The next support could be 0.6655. If there is a downside break below the 0.6655 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6630 zone. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6585.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Bitcoin Price Hits a Month's High, Breaking Key Resistance
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Yesterday's release of CPI figures suggests that inflation is slowing down and a rate cut could be on the horizon. This weakened the dollar and boosted the value of assets priced in dollars, including BTC/USD.

As a result, the price of Bitcoin hit a May high.

Meanwhile, there is sustained demand in the market driven by institutional participants investing in Bitcoin ETFs. According to media reports citing 13F filings:
→ JP Morgan invested $731,246 USD
→ Wells Fargo invested $141,817 USD in Grayscale's GBTC.
→ Similar activity is observed with other traditional banks like BNP Paribas and BNY Mellon, indicating a broader industry trend.
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Dollar Adjusts After the Publication of Inflation Data in the US
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Data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US, released yesterday, had a significant impact on the pricing of major currency pairs. According to the provided report:

• The core Consumer Price Index, which excludes food and energy costs, increased by 0.3% from the previous month, while experts had forecasted 0.4%.
  
• Retail sales remained unchanged at 0.0%, contrary to analysts' expectations of 0.4%.
  

As a result of the publication of such data, the dollar depreciated against almost all major currencies. For instance, the USD/JPY currency pair retreated from its peak at 156.60, the EUR/USD strengthened by more than 100 pips within a couple of hours, and buyers of the GBP/USD pair tested a significant resistance level at 1.2700.

The main reason for the sharp decline of the dollar against G-10 currencies is likely due to the possibility that slowing inflation growth and a weak labour market could prompt the Federal Reserve to change its monetary policy direction and reduce the base interest rate in the coming months.

USD/JPY

According to technical analysis of the USD/JPY pair on the daily timeframe, a "bearish engulfing" pattern has formed, the confirmation of which could contribute to a retest of the important area between 152.80-152.00. If dollar buyers manage to establish themselves above 154.90, the price may resume its upward movement towards recent highs around 156.00.

Macro-economic data that could influence the pricing of the pair in the upcoming trading sessions:

• Today at 15:30 (GMT +3:00), the number of initial jobless claims in the US.
  
• Today at 15:30 (GMT +3:00), the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (US).
  

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The US Dollar Is Weakening Following Inflation Data
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Yesterday saw the release of key economic indicators for the US. According to ForexFactory:

→ Core Price Index (CPI) monthly: actual = 0.3%, expected = 0.4%, previous = 0.4%;

→ Core Price Index (CPI) annual: actual = 3.4%, expected = 3.4%, previous = 3.5%;

→ Retail Sales monthly: actual = 0.0%, expected = 0.4%, previous = 0.6%.

Concerns about rising inflation did not materialise. Reuters reports that unchanged retail sales suggest conditions are forming for interest rate cuts.

Financial markets reacted significantly, with the US dollar weakening:

→ As we reported yesterday, signs of slowing inflation increased market participants' belief in imminent rate cuts, leading to the S&P 500 stock index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) reaching an all-time high;

→ Gold prices reached a high not seen since April 21;

→ Other currencies strengthened against the US dollar.

An interesting situation is developing on the USD/JPY chart. Applying Fibonacci ratios, we note three instances where price recovery halted around the 0.382 level:

→ Recovery from B to C following the impulsive decline from A to B;

→ Recovery from D to E after the impulsive decline from C to D;

→ Recovery from F to G after the 3-wave decline from A to F.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The Stock Price of PepsiСo (PEP) Is Retracting from Its Yearly High
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On April 23, the quarterly report of PepsiCo's performance for the first quarter was published, which was awaited anxiously.

The issue stemmed from the fact that in December 2023, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced the recall of over 40 Quaker Oats products – a company owned by PepsiCo – due to potential salmonella contamination. This led to a 22% decline in sales volume of Quaker Food products in the first quarter.

However, the report exceeded expectations:
→ Earnings per share: Actual = $1.16, Expected = $1.518;
→ Gross revenue: Actual = $18.25 billion, Expected = $18.08 billion.

By April 25, the stock price of PepsiCo (PEP) reached its yearly high, surpassing the $180 mark.

Then, this week, specifically May 13, the stock price of PepsiCo (PEP) hit a new yearly high, exceeding $181.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The S&P 500 Index Has Reached a Significant Resistance Level
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Analyzing the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) on April 26, we wrote about how the April decline could be a correction to the lower boundary of the channel within the 2024 rally. Following this, a logical development would be for the bulls to attempt to resume the upward trend and make another attempt to breach the 5250 level.

Today, May 15, the price of the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) is at the 5250 level after a bullish breakout of the trendline (shown in red) that delineated the correction.

The price has risen by approximately 4.5% since the beginning of May as earnings season has not been disappointing, and traders anticipate the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy.

Is further index growth possible?

Ben Snyder, Senior US Equity Market Strategist at Goldman Sachs, is positive in the long term but notes that:
→ the S&P 500 index has already surpassed the 5200 target level indicated by the bank's analysts;
→ an obvious risk of growth lies in the fact that companies may need to significantly raise profit forecasts.

Fundamental background has a significant influence on the dynamics of the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen). For example, yesterday Producer Price Index (PPI) data was released. According to ForexFactory: PPI m/m actual = 0.5%, expected = 0.3%, a month ago = -0.1%.

The initial market reaction was a decline in the price of the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) – perhaps market participants were spooked by rising producer prices and the prospect of higher Fed rates. However, this was followed by a statement from Fed Chair Powell, who reassured the markets. According to him:
→ the next Fed move is unlikely to be a rate hike;
→ the PPI data is more "mixed than hot", considering that the previous period's data was revised downwards.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: EUR/USD Sees Green as USD/JPY Gains Bullish Traction
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EUR/USD is slowly gaining traction above the 1.0800 level. USD/JPY trimmed almost all losses and showing positive signs above 156.20.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a decent increase above the 1.0750 pivot level.
  
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0800 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  
• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 155.95 and 156.50 levels.
  
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 156.20 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  

EUR/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 1.0725 zone. The Euro cleared a few key hurdles near 1.0750 to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

The pair settled above the 1.0800 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. A high was formed at 1.0830 and the pair is now consolidating gains. Immediate support is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0775 swing low to the 1.0827 high at 1.0815.

The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0800. There is also key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0800 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0775 swing low to the 1.0827 high.

The next key support is at 1.0790. If there is a downside break below 1.0790, the pair could drop toward 1.0750. The next support is near 1.0725, below which the pair could start a major decline.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 1.0830 zone. The next major resistance is near 1.0850. An upside break above 1.0850 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0920.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) Is Testing an Important Resistance Zone
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On April 16, we wrote why the $2,380 zone is an important resistance area.

The XAU/USD chart shows that:

1) After fading fluctuations (they formed a narrowing consolidation triangle - shown in green), the price of gold dropped sharply (shown by a black arrow) on April 22-23.

2) Then, the price found support in the form of the lower border of the ascending channel (shown in blue), which has been in effect since the beginning of March. This led to the formation of another consolidation pattern between the blue lines.

3) An upward breakdown of the red lines on May 9 could be interpreted as an attempt by the bulls to resume the upward trend within the blue channel, but we could expect that the green triangle with its axis around 2380 would provide resistance.

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Analytical Euro to Dollar Predictions for 2024-2025
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The EUR/USD currency pair stands as a critical barometer of economic interactions and the relative strength between the Eurozone and the United States. This article delves into the recent history, economic outlooks, and analytical euro-to-dollar forecasts for this major currency pair in 2024 and 2025.



Recent EUR/USD History

From 2019 to the present, the EUR/USD currency pair has navigated through turbulent economic waters, influenced by a series of global events and differing monetary policies between Europe and the United States.

Initially, the euro experienced a gradual depreciation against the dollar, moving from around 1.14 at 2019’s open to close the year at 1.12. This was largely due to the European Central Bank's (ECB) continuation of its quantitative easing program, coupled with its persistently low interest rate of 0%.

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 sent the euro tumbling further to a low of approximately 1.06 as panic gripped global markets. However, recovery was swift, and by September 2020, the euro had climbed to a high of about 1.20, bolstered by the US dollar's comparative weakness.

The euro fluctuated between 1.23 and 1.17 in the first half of 2021. However, inflation began to rise in both the Eurozone and US economy, but more so in the US. The anticipation of steep hikes by the Federal Reserve caused it to close near 1.13 by year's end.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: Gold Price Regains Strength While Crude Oil Price Recovers
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The gold price started a fresh increase above $2,320. Crude oil is recovering and might rise toward the $81.20 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Price Analysis Today

• The gold price started a decent increase from the $2,300 zone against the US Dollar.
  
• It broke a key descending channel with resistance at $2,315 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
  
• Crude oil is recovering losses and trading above the $78.55 support.
  
• There was a break above a connecting bearish trendline with resistance near $78.40 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
  

Gold Price Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of XAU/USD at FXOpen, the price formed support near the $2,275 zone, remained in a bullish zone, and started a strong increase above $2,300.

It broke a key descending channel with resistance at $2,315. The bulls even pushed the price above the $2,345 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it traded as high as $2,358. XAU/USD is now consolidating gains near the $2,355 zone, and the RSI is above 70.

Initial support on the downside is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,307 swing low to the $2,358 high at $2,345.

The first major support is near the $2,335 zone. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,307 swing low to the $2,358 high. If there is a downside break below the $2,335 support, the price might decline further.

In the stated case, the price might drop toward $2,320 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

Immediate resistance is near the $2,360 level. The next major resistance is near the $2,372 level. An upside break above the $2,372 resistance could send the gold price toward $2,385. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,400 level.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

WTI Oil Price Recovers Quickly From March Lows
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On May 8, the price of WTI crude oil fell below $77 per barrel for the first time since March 11. But on the morning of May 10, it was above $79 – an increase of almost 3% in less than two days.

Several factors contributed to the significant rise in the price of WTI crude oil. According to Reuters, among them:

→ Increased oil demand from the United States. Data released on Wednesday showed a drop in US crude oil inventories, driven by increased refinery utilisation.

→ Growing demand from China. Data published on Thursday showed an increase in oil imports.

→ Ongoing concerns about possible supply disruptions due to escalating conflict in the Middle East. Negotiations to end hostilities between Israel and Hamas failed, and Israel attacked the Palestinian city of Rafah.

On April 19, we wrote about the possibility of a bearish breakdown of the ascending channel line, which would be welcomed by the US administration, where the presidential elections are getting closer and closer.

Since then, the price of oil has broken down the median line and the support line at $80.70, which may act as resistance in the future.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

GBP/USD Analysis: Pound Recovers After the Bank of England Decision
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Yesterday, the Bank of England published its interest rate decision. According to ForexFactory, the votes were distributed as follows:

→ rate hike - 0 votes, cut - 2 votes, unchanged - 7 (0 - 2 - 7);

→ forecast: 0 - 0 - 9;

→ previous values: 0 - 1 - 8.

For the first time in the current cycle of interest rate hikes aimed at inflation lowering, two members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted in favour of the rate cut. The dovish tone was echoed by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey: “It is likely that we will need to cut the bank rate over coming quarters, possibly more so than is currently priced into markets.”

The market's first reaction to the clear signals of the imminent easing monetary policy was the weakening of the pound, including against the US dollar. Thus, yesterday, the GBP/USD rate dropped below the low of April 26 at around 1.245.

However:

→ the US dollar is also affected by the prospect of the Fed's easing monetary policy because the current tight policy puts pressure on the labour market - according to data from May 9, the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US was the highest since November 2023;

→ Today's UK GDP data (which turned out to be better than expected) supported the pound.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

GBP/USD Bulls Struggle While USD/CAD Regains Strength
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GBP/USD declined below the 1.2550 support zone. USD/CAD is rising and might aim for more gains above the 1.3760 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.2635 resistance zone.
  
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.2500 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  
• USD/CAD is showing positive signs above the 1.3685 support zone.
  
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3720 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  

GBP/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2635 zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.2550 support to move into further a bearish zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even traded below 1.2500 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2465 level. A low was formed at 1.2467 and the pair recently attempted a recovery wave. The pair climbed above the 1.2485 level.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

AUD/USD Analysis: Aussie Weakens After RBA Decision
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Following its decision on 7th May, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) opted to maintain the interest rate at 4.35%, despite inflation continuing to decrease at a slower pace than anticipated by the RBA.

"I think we still think they’re reasonably balanced with perhaps a little bit of a signal that we need to be very watchful on the upside," RBA governor Michele Bullock said.

According to The Guardian, the absence of more aggressive language led to a decline in the Australian dollar.

Specifically, on the morning of 8th May, the AUD/USD rate fell below the 0.657 level, whereas on 7th May, the rate was at 0.664 - a decrease of approximately 1.3% in 30 hours.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Rivian Stock Goes High as Q1 Report Anticipation Mounts
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Being a newcomer within a very long-established and somewhat traditional global industry is not easy.

The automotive industry is a case in point. It has been over 139 years since Karl Benz managed to successfully produce the first motorised vehicle, and since then, huge global conglomerates have built economies of scale to compete against each other fiercely in every corner of the world whilst evolving gradually rather than taking a revolutionary position.

Suddenly, in 2014, the now infamous Elon Musk came from outside the traditional manufacturing or automotive sectors and disrupted an age-old, highly polished, and well-established industry to the extent that even Mercedes Benz, the company that invented the car all those years ago, has begun making electric cars to compete with those introduced by Elon Musk's Tesla company.

More recently, some even newer names have entered the electric vehicle arena, some of which listed their stock on public exchanges in North America with high-value listings despite little or no market share, having done so via controversial SPAC 'blank check' companies toward an audience which, for many, would have heard the names of such companies for the first time.

One such firm is Rivian Automotive, which listed its stock on the NASDAQ exchange in November 2021 at a price of $78 per share. Since then, Rivian, whose main product is an electric pickup truck, has been incredibly volatile, trading at a lot less than $10 per share more recently, but had been fluctuating around $25 in December.

As the New York trading session came to a close yesterday, Rivian stock was among the top risers on FXOpen's TickTrader platform, concluding the trading day at $10.31 per share according to FXOpen pricing.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The US Labour Market Is Slowing Down. How Could This Impact Major Currency Pair Pricing?
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A weak employment report in the US contributed to a sharp pullback in major currency pairs, but it hasn't led to a full change in major trends yet. For instance, nonfarm payroll figures showed that:

• The number of new jobs came in at 173K, compared to the forecast of 238K.
  
• Average monthly wages decreased by 0.2% against an expected 0.3% increase.
  
• Unemployment rose to 3.9% from 3.8%.
  

Following the slowdown in job growth, investors will eagerly await inflation data. If the figures meet or exceed expert forecasts, expectations for a rate cut by the US regulator could increase.

GBP/USD
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According to technical analysis of the GBP/USD pair using the "chaos" system, we are seeing a corrective pullback after the formation of a reversal bar on April 22. Attention should be paid to price behaviour around 1.2520-1.2500. If the price rebounds from this range, it could strengthen towards 1.2640-1.2600. A drop below support at the entwined alligator lines may lead to a retest of the recent low around 1.2300.

Key events of the week include:

• Today at 11:30 (GMT +3:00), publication of data on business activity index in the UK construction sector for April.
  
• Thursday at 14:00 (GMT +3:00), Bank of England meeting and decision on the GBP base interest rate.
  

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

UK100 Analysis: Stock Market Optimistic Ahead of Bank of England News
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On Monday, the UK observed a bank holiday for May Day, and on Tuesday, the stock market demonstrated accumulated optimism.

The FTSE index (UK100) today surpassed the 8300 mark. Additionally:
→ The opening occurred with a bullish gap;
→ On the daily chart of UK100, today the RSI indicator is in overbought territory, unseen since the beginning of 2023.

One of the significant drivers of bullish sentiments could be considered events on Thursday – at 14:00 GMT+3, news from the Bank of England is expected: market participants will learn about the decision on the interest rate, followed by a press conference.

As Econoday writes:
→ A decision to cut interest rates is unlikely at Thursday's meeting, with autumn being seen as the most probable period for a 0.25-point rate cut from the current level of 5.25 points.
→ Members of the rate-setting committee are concerned that inflation is slowing down too slowly. However, the trend is in the right direction, and the Bank of England has already stated that the 2 percent target does not necessarily need to be reached before interest rates are lowered.

Perhaps the anticipation of signals for monetary policy easing instils confidence in the bulls, but how sustainable can the current growth be?

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Japanese Yen Goes on Volatility Drive after US Economic Uncertainty Surfaces
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The Japanese yen has been notably volatile for a long time now, and today, that dynamic continues as the yen made some tremendous steps forward over the course of the Asia Pacific trading session.

In today's Asia Pacific trading session, the USDJPY pair has become the second most volatile currency on FXOpen's TickTrader platform this morning.

There have been some economic factors surrounding both the Japanese and United States economies that have surfaced during the course of the morning, including some very interesting reports and releases of data from the US government on economic circumstances surrounding the country.

The USDJPY pair was trading at 157.74 on 1st May, according to FXOpen pricing, and began to decline from there, going down to 153.13 by Thursday, 2nd May, followed by a further dip to 151.85 on Friday, settling at 153.787 at 8.15 am UK time today (Monday, 6th May) having continued this level during the Asia Pacific session.

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What Did Buffett Say at the Shareholders' Meeting?
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Warren Buffett, aged 93, held his first Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meeting this weekend without Charlie Munger, his longtime partner at Berkshire Hathaway, who passed away at the age of 99.

Following the meeting, it was revealed that Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves are at record levels and continuing to grow, reflecting the challenge of finding stocks for the value investing strategy that has defined billionaire Warren Buffett's success.

Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term Treasury bills for Buffett's group totaled $189 billion at the end of March, up 13% from the end of 2023. "It is fair to assume that by the end of this quarter they will probably be around $200 billion," Buffett said.

According to the legendary investor:

• Berkshire sold about 13% of its Apple shares;
  
• reduced its stake in Chevron by approximately 2%;
  
• Coca-Cola and American Express are "wonderful companies";
  
• the Indian stock market may present "untapped opportunities";
  
• "We only pick those areas that we like."
  

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The Price of Silver (XAG/USD) is Falling for the Second Consecutive Week
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Following a surge in the price of silver close to the important psychological level of $30 per ounce on April 12, bearish momentum is now evident - concluding the week may mark the second consecutive week of decline for XAG/USD.

The decline in demand for silver could be linked to the decrease in gold prices.

Conversely, gold is losing its appeal due to:

→ easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East;

→ gold's lack of yield, which is deemed unattractive in a high interest rate environment that may persist due to the Federal Reserve's policy - investors are given reason to favour low-risk bonds in their portfolios.

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AAPL Share Price Soars after Record Buyback Announced
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Yesterday, after the end of the main trading session, Apple published its report on its activities for the 1st quarter:

→ Earnings per share: actual = $1.53; expected = $1.505;

→ Gross income: actual = $90.75; expected = $90.36.

The better-than-expected report came as a relief to investors after reporting lower sales in five of the last six quarters. In addition, the following could give positive feedback to market participants:

→ Apple's forecast is that its iPad manufacturing and services business will grow at double-digit rates;

→ company investments in AI. “We think we're well positioned,” Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri told Bloomberg Television's Emily Chang. CEO Tim Cook is expected to outline Apple's artificial intelligence strategy at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference in June.

→ Apple Inc.'s big plan to restore investor confidence. It consists of a record $110 billion share buyback and a 4% dividend increase.

As a result, AAPL's price rose nearly 8% in post-market trading, exceeding $185 per share, although yesterday's close was around $173.

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Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Attempt Another Recovery
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AUD/USD is eyeing a steady increase above the 0.6555 resistance. NZD/USD is also rising and could extend its increase above the 0.6000 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar is moving higher from the 0.6465 zone against the US Dollar.
  
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6555 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
  
• NZD/USD is showing positive signs above the 0.5925 support.
  
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 0.5940 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.
  

AUD/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair formed a base above 0.6465. The Aussie Dollar started another recovery wave above the 0.6510 resistance against the US Dollar

The bulls pushed the pair above the 0.6525 resistance zone. There was a close above the 0.6555 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6585 zone. A high is formed at 0.6585 and the pair is now consolidating above 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6465 swing low to the 0.6585 high.

On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near 0.6585. The first major resistance might be 0.6620. An upside break above the 0.6620 resistance might send the pair further higher.

The next major resistance is near the 0.6665 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.6720 resistance zone.

If not, the pair might correct lower. Immediate support is near a connecting bullish trend line at 0.6555. The next support could be 0.6525 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6465 swing low to the 0.6585 high.

If there is a downside break below the 0.6525 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6510 zone. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6465.

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April Became the Worst Month for BTC/USD Since November 2022
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In November 2022, the BTC/USD price dropped by 16.20%. The main driver of this decline was the crash of the FTX exchange.

In April 2024, the price of Bitcoin decreased by 14.77%. Paradoxically, the main news event could be considered the halving, which occurs every 4 years and is considered a bullish factor as it signifies a reduction in supply from miners. So why did the BTC/USD price decrease by the end of April?

Presumably, expectations from the halving could have been excessively optimistic, and after the event occurred, the price declined as emotions subsided – an example of "buy the rumour, sell the fact" situation.

It's worth noting that in the Bitcoin Cash network (a fork of the Bitcoin blockchain from August 2017), the halving took place on April 4, and the BCH/USD price decreased after that day – which could have been a concerning signal.

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USD/JPY Analysis: US Dollar Weakens After Statements from the Federal Reserve Chair
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Last night, the Federal Reserve's decision regarding interest rates was published, which, as expected, remained unchanged at 5.5%. The subsequent press conference by Powell was of particular interest to market participants.

According to CNBC, during the conference, the Fed Chair almost ruled out a rate hike as the next step, emphasizing the monetary policy's independence from the upcoming presidential elections. Additionally, he stated that:

• Concerns regarding stagflation are exaggerated;
  
• The Fed intends to lower rates smoothly and gradually;
  
• The duration of maintaining high rates is increasing indefinitely.
  

The market's reaction to the Fed's news was a weakening of the dollar – apparently, concerns about another rate hike as the next step have diminished.

The dollar weakened significantly against the yen – the USD/JPY rate dropped from 157.50 to 153.10 yen per dollar yesterday evening (approximately -2.7%) in less than an hour, although the rate later recovered. The reason lies in the context, specifically the yen's strong strengthening on Monday, when the rate exceeded 160 yen per dollar, as we wrote on the morning of April 29. Perhaps there was another intervention yesterday?

However, official sources refuse to comment. Tokyo may be adhering to a tactic of keeping investors in the dark about its currency intervention strategy. Although, as reported by the Japan Times, fluctuations of 5 yen per dollar indicate interventions.

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