Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Yuan Retreats from Multi-year Highs on Strong Economic Data
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The US dollar index hit its highest level since early March this week, but the yuan is one of the few currencies to rise against the USD over the period.

This was facilitated, among other things, by strong economic data published today:
→ Industrial production growth in August amounted to +4.5% in annual terms (expected +3.9). This is the strongest progress in 1 month since autumn 2022.
→ Retail sales in August increased by 4.6% year on year (expected +3.0%).

The chart shows that after a multi-year high (B) of about USD 7.36 per yuan set on September 8, the rate has retreated sharply. That is, sales of dollars (B→C) for yuan increased. And the sharp increase in A→B is completely leveled out. This is a bearish sign, indicating that the bulls have completely retreated.

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Market Reaction to the ECB's Decision to Raise Rates to 4.5%
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According to the ECB report, published yesterday:

→ Inflation in Europe continues to decline, but will remain too high for too long.
→ Average inflation is forecast at 5.6% in 2023, 3.2% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. This is an upward revision for 2023 and 2024, which mainly reflects rising energy prices.
→ The eurozone economy is forecast to grow by 0.7% in 2023, 1.0% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025.

In order to combat inflation, the ECB decided to raise the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%, which was a surprise, since it was expected to remain at 4.25%. At the same time, the deposit rate reached a historical maximum.

Importantly, the ECB noted that "interest rates have reached levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to the target” — this was perceived by market participants as a signal that the growth cycle (10 rate increases in a row) is completed.

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Gold Price Eyes Recovery While Crude Oil Price Surges
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Gold price is eyeing a fresh increase above the $1,915 resistance level. Crude oil price is surging, and it could climb further higher toward the $92 resistance.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a recovery wave from the $1,900 zone against the US Dollar.
  
• It broke a major bearish trend line with resistance near $1,908 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
  
• Crude oil prices rallied above the $88 and $90 resistance levels.
  
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $89.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
  

Gold Price Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near the $1,900 zone. The price traded as low as $1,900.93 and recently started a recovery wave.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls pushed the price above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $1,908. It is now testing the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,930 swing high to the $1,900 low.

The RSI is back above 50 and the price could aim for more gains. Immediate resistance is near the $1,915 level. The next major resistance is near the $1,924 level.

The 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,930 swing high to the $1,900 low also sits at $1,925. An upside break above the $1,924 resistance could send Gold price toward $1,930. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $1,950 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the 50-hour simple moving average or $1,908. The first major support is $1,900. The main support is $1,888. If there is a downside break below the $1,888 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,865 support.

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Dollar Trying to Resume Upward Movement After Rise in Core CPI
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Yesterday's inflation data in the US turned out to be higher than analysts expected. Thus, in general, the level of consumer prices increased by 3.7% year on year, while on a monthly basis, prices increased by 0.6%. Such data indicate that the Fed's hawkish policy has not yet produced the expected results in the fight against inflation, and, most likely, the rate will be raised again at the September meeting. However, the major currency pairs reacted rather subduedly to yesterday's fundamentals. The euro/US dollar, the pound/US dollar and the US dollar/yen managed to remain in the previously formed flat corridors.

EUR/USD
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Buyers of the single European currency once again defended support at 1.0700. The development of an upward correction has not yet been observed, as investors are waiting for today's statement from the ECB. At 15:15 GMT+3, the decision on the base interest rate will be announced, and a press conference with Christine Lagarde will take place a little later. If the head of the ECB announces a possible pause in the rate hike, the pair could instantly find itself at 1.0600-1.0500. Conversely, the hawkish tone of officials could contribute to a rise to 1.1000.

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EUR/AUD Approaches Important Support Zone
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Euro currency traders are focused on the ECB meeting, the decision of which will be published today at 15:15 GMT+3. There will be a press conference at 3:45 p.m.

According to Reuters, the probability of a rate hike is about 60%. The figure stood at 50% at the start of the week as the ECB's updated forecasts expect inflation to remain above 3% next year, well above its 2% target.

At the same time, Australian dollar traders experienced a spike in volatility this morning following the release of strong labor market data in Australia. Last month, the number of employed people increased by almost 65,000 people — the second highest figure in 2023.

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Major Currency Pairs Test Important Ranges
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Yesterday, one could observe measured range trading on the market. The main currency pairs once again tested the previously formed extremes, but neither the continuation of old trends nor the formation of reversal combinations was observed. Most likely, investors and market participants are waiting for today's inflation data in the US. The core consumer price index could provide more clues about the Fed's future monetary policy.

USD/CAD

The rise in oil prices prevented the USD/CAD pair from strengthening above 1.3680. Last week, greenback buyers were determined to move above 1.3700 and test the May highs of this year. The attempt was unsuccessful, and a sharp pullback from 1.3690 allowed sellers to seize the initiative and form a bearish tweezers combination on the daily timeframe. At the moment, the signal to decline is being worked out; the nearest target for sellers will be the range of 1.3500-1.3400. If the upcoming fundamental data of the next trading sessions are positive for the US currency, another approach to 1.3700 may occur. Otherwise, the pair will face a deeper downward correction.

Today at 15:30 GMT+3, we are waiting for data on inflation in the United States, and at 17:30 GMT+3, weekly data on crude oil reserves will be published. A little later, the main Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Canadian Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) for September will be released.

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GBP/USD Analysis: Price Sets a Minimum of 3 Months After GDP News
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Disappointing UK economic data was released this morning. According to the Office for National Statistics, real gross domestic product fell by 0.5% in July 2023, with declines occurring across a range of sectors. The last time a decline of this magnitude occurred was in February of this year.

As a result of the publication, the GBP/USD rate dropped sharply. At the same time, it fell below the previous low set on September 7. Bears are putting pressure on the level of 1.245. Let us note that the last time one pound was given was 1.2443 dollars in June of this year.

Bearish arguments:

→ The UK has the highest inflation among Western countries. And the Bank of England is forced to keep rates high in order to lower them, thereby creating the preconditions for a further decline in GDP.
→ In case of a successful bearish breakdown of the level of 1.245, which provided support in September, this level may become resistance. As was the case with the level of 1.255.
→ The GBP/USD rate has been in a downward trend since mid-July, as shown by the red channel. And the median line may put pressure on the pound exchange rate in the near future.

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EUR/USD Attempts Recovery, USD/CHF Faces Uphill Task
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EUR/USD started a recovery wave above the 1.0715 resistance. USD/CHF is struggling to clear the key 0.8940 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro gained pace after it broke the 1.0705 resistance against the US Dollar.
  
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0715 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  
• USD/CHF is consolidating gains below the 0.8940 resistance.
  
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8930 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  

EUR/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a recovery wave from the 1.0685 level. The Euro even cleared the 1.0715 barrier to move into a short-term bullish zone against the US Dollar.

The bulls pushed the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.0735. Finally, the pair tested the 1.0760 resistance. It is now consolidating gains below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0705 swing low to the 1.0764 high.

Immediate support on the downside is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0735. The next major support is near a bullish trend line at 1.0715.

The trend line is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0705 swing low to the 1.0764 high. A downside break below the 1.0715 support could send the pair toward the 1.0685 level.

Immediate resistance on the EUR/USD chart is near the 1.0760 zone. The first major resistance is near the 1.0780 level. An upside break above the 1.0780 level might send the pair toward the 1.0850 resistance.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0920 level. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.1000 level.

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TSLA Share Price Soars 10%
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The reason for the growth is the increase in the target price for TSLA shares by analysts at Morgan Stanley from USD 250 to USD 400 (about +45% from current levels).

Analysts see huge potential in Tesla Dojo — this supercomputer is capable of processing millions of terabytes of video of real-life situations captured from more than 4 million Tesla vehicles. It is designed to train artificial intelligence models to ultimately help the driver drive a car (Full Self-Driving, FSD system). Analysts say Dojo could serve as the same catalyst as AWS services that helped drive Amazon stock higher.

After analysts at Morgan Stanley upgraded their rating, TSLA's price soared 10%, exceeding USD 270 per share.

This momentum could help develop the current bullish trend that describes the trend channel in the provided chart of TSLA stock, with:
→ the level of USD 260, overcome with a gap, can now provide support;
→ after overcoming this resistance, the price reached the median line of the channel. Here, supply and demand tend to balance out — this could help the bulls gain a foothold above the breakout level of USD 260.

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Oil Price Stabilizes Near Year's Highs
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Last week, the Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia confirmed plans to reduce production by the end of the year, which contributed to an increase in oil prices.

At the beginning of this week, the WTI price stabilized in the range of 85.50 - 87.50. Will the upward trend continue, which will benefit oil producers?

On Tuesday morning, the price is within the triangle formed from the median line of the ascending channel (shown in blue) and the level of 87.50. A breakout of this triangle can occur in both directions.

Bullish arguments:

→ The price is within the ascending channels, both short-term (built on the 1h and 4h charts) and long-term (built on the daily chart).
→ A series of rising lows is forming on the chart, indicating that demand is active.
→ Technically, the market may be supported by the level of 85.50, which previously served as resistance.
→ Oil supplies may be disrupted due to various storms. For example, in eastern Libya, 4 ports were closed due to flooding and a storm, which killed about 2,000 people.

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Economic Calendar: A Torrent of UK and Chinese Releases, US Inflation and Inventories, and ECB Meeting
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A torrent of key economic data releases is coming out this week, which will significantly impact the markets. First up is UK unemployment and average earnings on Tuesday (10:00). Unemployment is expected to tick up to 4.3%, while earnings remain steady at 8.2%, presenting a quandary for the Bank of England, as it battles to reduce inflation while not induce a recession.

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USD/JPY Analysis: Yen Rises Sharply after Hawkish Government Announcements
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Since 2016, the interest rate in Japan has been in the negative zone and has remained unchanged — for more than 7 years it has been -0.10%. This makes Japan fundamentally different from other countries. But over the weekend the Yomiuri newspaper published an interview with Bank of Japan CEO Kazuo Ueda. He said the central bank could end the era of negative interest rates once it becomes clear that the 2% inflation target has been achieved.

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GBP/USD Could Recover While USD/CAD Trims Gains
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GBP/USD retested the 1.2450 support and is now correcting losses. USD/CAD is correcting gains and trading below the 1.3655 support.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound is eyeing a fresh increase above the 1.2580 resistance.
  
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2550 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  
• USD/CAD declined below the 1.3655 and 1.3615 support levels.
  
• A connecting bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 1.3615 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  

GBP/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2700 resistance zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.2550 support to enter a bearish zone against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis.

Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2450 zone. The pair is now attempting a recovery wave above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.2480. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2642 swing high to the 1.2447 low.

The RSI moved above the 50 level on the GBP/USD chart and the pair is now showing a few positive signs. Immediate resistance is forming near a key bearish trend line at 1.2550 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2642 swing high to the 1.2447 low.

The next resistance is near 1.2580. An upside break above the 1.2580 zone could send the pair toward 1.2655. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.2700.

On the downside, initial support is near the 1.2480 area. The next major support is 1.2450. If there is a break below 1.2450, the pair could extend its decline. The next key support is near the 1.2400 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.2345 support.

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Dollar Strengthens Amid Good Data
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Data on business activity in the US for August was published. In general, indicators are recovering, but the pace is slowing down, and the beginning of a recession in the near future is seen as quite possible. Nevertheless, investors still hope that a recession in the US economy will be avoided. Weekly data from the American labour market were also published yesterday. Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits amounted to 216.0k, which turned out to be lower than both the forecast of 234.0k and the previous value of 229.0k. The total number of citizens receiving assistance from the state decreased from 1.719 million to 1.679 million, while experts estimated 1.715 million, confirming the stable state of the sector, which may contribute to a new increase in the US Fed interest rate.

EUR/USD

The euro fell on Thursday as Europe's economic outlook continued to deteriorate. Data showed German industrial production fell slightly more than expected in July. The Ifo Institute said Germany's economy would contract by 0.4% this year, confirming its previous forecasts published in June. Meanwhile, European statistics agency Eurostat revised down its estimate that eurozone GDP rose 0.1% in the second quarter from the previous three months. On an annualised basis, GDP increased by 0.5%, Eurostat said, revising its previous growth estimate of 0.6%. The immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0744; a breakout to the upside could trigger a rise towards 1.0788. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0697, and a break below could take the pair towards 1.0672.

A new downward channel has formed at the lows of the week. Now, the price is in the middle of the channel and may continue to move towards the upper border.

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Could Start Fresh Increase
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AUD/USD declined 0.6400 before the bulls appeared. NZD/USD is now attempting a fresh increase from the 0.5860 support zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6440 level against the US Dollar.
  
• There is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 0.6400 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
  
• NZD/USD declined heavily from the 0.6000 resistance zone.
  
• Recently, there was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance near 0.5880 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.
  

AUD/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6520 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6440 support against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below 0.6400 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 0.6360 zone. A low was formed near 0.6357 and the pair is now consolidating losses. It is slowly moving higher above the 50-hour simple moving average.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near a key contracting triangle at 0.6400. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6522 swing high to the 0.6357 low.

A clear upside break above 0.6400 could send the pair toward the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6522 swing high to the 0.6357 low at 0.6440. The next major resistance is near 0.6485, above which the price could rise toward 0.6520. Any more gains might send the pair toward 0.6550.

A close above the 0.6550 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6600.

On the downside, initial support is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 0.6385. The next support could be the 0.6360. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6320 support.

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Bitcoin Sets September High
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The price of the main cryptocurrency rose above the level of 26k US dollars. This was fueled by the news that Ark Invest and 21Shares filed applications with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a spot ETF on Ethereum.

Some say recent verdicts in favor of cryptocurrency firms Grayscale and Ripple Labs in lawsuits against the SEC increase the chances that ETF applications for Ethereum will be approved. We also note that applications for bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock and other funds are being reviewed by the SEC, but the deadlines for these applications, originally set for early September, have been postponed to a later date.

Meanwhile, Barrons writes that the NASDAQ exchange is preparing infrastructure for cryptocurrency trading, which is causing bullish sentiment among cryptocurrency enthusiasts. But the BTC/USD chart gives reason to doubt.

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Commodity Currencies, Pound and Euro in Search of Medium-term Bottom
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Yesterday's multidirectional statistics from the US contributed to the test of significant levels by major currency pairs. Thus, the GBP/USD pair fell to 1.2500, the EUR/USD pair re-tested 1.0700, and commodity currencies managed to find temporary support.

AUD/USD

In early September, the Australian currency came under additional pressure due to negative economic data from China. The slowdown in the world's second largest economy, provoked by the deepening decline in the real estate market, could not but affect the currencies of China's trading partners. After the RBA left the base interest rate unchanged at the beginning of the week, the AUD/USD pair updated the August low of this year at 0.6360. Yesterday, buyers managed to keep the price above the recent lows, but if the situation in the commodity market does not stabilise, the downtrend may continue towards 0.6100-0.6000. Cancellation of the downward scenario may be considered after a firm consolidation above 0.6520.

From the point of view of fundamental analysis, today at 15:30 GMT+3, we are waiting for weekly data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US.

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USD/CAD Analysis: How the Bank of Canada Decision Affected the National Currency
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Yesterday it became known that the Bank of Canada (BOC) decided to keep the rate at 5% — the highest level in 22 years.

Here are the key takeaways from CEO Tiff Macklem's press conference:

→ excess demand is declining, but the BOC is remaining concerned about persistence of high inflation;
→ the labor market is gradually calming down, but wage growth remains high;
→ second-quarter GDP contraction attributed to a noticeable slowdown in consumption growth, a slowdown in housing market growth and the impact of wildfires across the country.

Although the decision to leave the rate unchanged is a move that economists expected in a Bloomberg survey, there has been some spike in volatility in the foreign exchange market. The first emotional reaction of market participants led to the depreciation of the CAD against other currencies. But at the end of the day, the Canadian dollar strengthened — apparently, market participants still see positive in the prospects of the Canadian economy, taking into account the statements of the head of the Bank of Canada.

At the same time, an interesting situation is emerging on the USD/CAD chart – the rate has declined from the important level of 1.365, from which reversals were repeatedly formed earlier this year (as the arrows show). What can we say about the formation of another bearish reversal?

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Nikkei 225 Reaches Psychological Level at 33,000
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In 2023, Japan's stock market is in a bullish trend (shown by the blue channel) as the country has an ultra-loose monetary policy (unlike other G7 countries that are fighting inflation). As a result, the cheap yen helps Japanese companies, which are largely export-oriented, to develop. According to the Cabinet of Japan, GDP in the second quarter of 2023 increased by 2% compared to the same quarter of the previous year.

The growth of the Japanese stock market from the beginning of the year to today is about 28%. And on Sept. 5, the Nikkei 225 closed above the psychological 33,000 level. Yahoo Finance reports that Kenji Abe, Daiwa Securities equity strategist, predicts the Nikkei could gradually rise to 35,000 after a strong reporting season this summer.

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The US Dollar Strengthens to a Maximum of Six Months
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On Tuesday, financial market participants received a piece of data that gives signs of a slowdown in economies in different countries. Namely, the PMI index (an index of purchasing managers, which is considered a leading economic indicator) showed a negative trend in China and a number of European countries.

This led to a decrease in exchange rates against the US dollar.

Today, the US PMI data will be released, which is likely to affect the current strength of the US dollar index, as well as provide important information for the Fed's interest rate decision. The next meeting will be held on September 19-20.

According to the CME FEDWatch tool, there is a 7% chance that rates will be raised in September. However, the probability that it will be increased by the end of the year is about 45%.

“I can well imagine, from what I see so far, that we might have to go a bit higher, that we might have to raise the policy rate a bit more,” Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in an interview with German newspaper Börsen-Zeitung published on Tuesday.

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EUR/USD Nosedives While USD/JPY Surged Further
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EUR/USD started a fresh decline from 1.0940. USD/JPY is rising and might climb further toward the 148.80 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0860 support zone.
  
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0760 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  
• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 146.10 and 147.00 levels.
  
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 147.20 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  

EUR/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.0940 zone. The Euro declined below the 1.0860 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below the 1.0805 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low is formed near 1.0707 and the pair is now consolidating losses near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0808 swing high to the 1.0707 low.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0760 and a key bearish trend line. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0808 swing high to the 1.0707 low.

The next major resistance is near 1.0805. The main resistance is now near 1.0860. An upside break above 1.0860 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0940.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0705. The next key support is at 1.0680. If there is a downside break below 1.0680, the pair could drop toward 1.0635. The next support is near 1.0620, below which the pair could start a major decline.

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AUD/USD Falls Sharply after the Decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia
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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates at 4.10% for the third month today, fueling rumors that the tightening cycle is over. Although according to Reuters, the majority of economists polled by the agency expect another increase by the end of the year after the release of the inflation report for the third quarter.

In the words of RBA chief Philip Lowe today:

→ data indicate that inflation could return to the 2-3% target range at the end of 2025;

→ the labor market remains strong and the economy operates at a high level of capacity utilization, although its development has slowed down;

→ further tightening is still acceptable if inflation is to be suppressed, which stands at 4.9% in July (at an 18-month low).

Reacting to the results of the RBA meeting, the AUD/USD rate fell to the lows of the year, to the level of 0.637.

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The Price of Oil Sets Maximum of the Year
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Yesterday, the price of WTI oil rose above USD 85.50 per barrel. This has not happened since November 2022.

On August 24, we wrote that the price of oil could find support for growth from the lower border of the rising channel, as well as from the level of USD 78.50. Since then, the price of WTI oil has risen by more than 9%. Fundamentally this contributed to:

→ the policy of limiting production by OPEC+ countries;

→ expectations that the Chinese economy will recover thanks to the incentives of the authorities.

According to Trafigura, a large company trading mainly in metals and energy resources, investment in the development of the oil industry is not enough, and a price of up to USD 88 can be considered fair in the current circumstances.

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The US Dollar Is Up after Mixed News
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EUR/USD

The euro fell on Friday as the dollar rose after the August jobs report showed that the labor market is still strong despite some signs of deterioration. Employers added 187,000 jobs in August, beating expectations for an increase of 170,000. But data for July was revised down to show 157,000 jobs added instead of the previously reported 187,000. The unemployment rate rose to 3.8%, higher than expected 3.5%. Average hourly wages rose 4.3% year-on-year, below expectations for a 4.4% increase. The US dollar index last rose 0.58% to 104.23. It gained 0.08% over the week, overcoming a price drop earlier in the week caused by softening economic data. The euro fell 0.59% to USD 1.0773. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0847, an upside break could trigger a move towards 1.0859. On the other hand, immediate support is seen at 1.0763, a break lower could take the pair to 1.0740.

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Economic Calendar: US PMI Data, Stock Market Decline, and Oil Surge
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After falling for the majority of August, stocks managed to rally in the last week of the month. The Nasdaq Composite surged by over 3%, the S&P 500 increased by 2.5%, and the DJI rose by 1.4%. History says September is primarily the worst period for the American stock market – the S&P 500 and Nasdaq usually go down this month. However, some analysts believe that a downward shift in consensus views on inflation and its risks may change the market sentiment to positive.

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GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Show Signs of Weakness
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GBP/USD failed to climb above 1.2750 and trimmed all gains. EUR/GBP is declining and trading below the 0.8580 pivot level.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase from 1.2580.
  
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2655 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  
• EUR/GBP is declining and showing bearish signs below 0.8580.
  
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8560 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  

GBP/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2745 zone. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the British Pound struggled to recover and declined below the 1.2655 support level against the US Dollar.

The pair even tested the 1.2580 support zone. A low was formed near 1.2577 and the pair is now attempting a fresh increase. There was a move above the 1.2600 zone and it is now testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2702 swing high to the 1.2577 low.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.2620. The next major resistance is near a bearish trend line at 1.2655 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The trend line is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2702 swing high to the 1.2577 low. A close above the 1.2655 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2700.

Any more gains might send it toward 1.2745. If not, the pair could resume its decline below 1.2600. On the downside, there is a key support forming near 1.2580.

If there is a downside break below the 1.2580 support, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.2550 zone, below which the pair could test 1.2500. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2450 support.

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USD/CNH Falls Amid Chinese Economic Stimulus
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Since January, the Chinese yuan has weakened more than 9% against the US dollar due to problems in the Chinese economy, as evidenced by statistics, as well as the bankruptcy of the developer Evergrande.

And today, the People's Bank of China announced that it will reduce the required foreign exchange reserve ratio to 4% from 6%, starting September 15. The move is seen as aimed at slowing down the yuan's fall.

Also, 5 major banks in China are cutting mortgage rates, possibly to reduce the risks of Country Garden going bankrupt.

According to analysts reported by Reuters, the measures taken may be only a temporary solution, but will lead to an increase in problems in the long term.

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Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Turn Green
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Gold price is showing positive signs above the $1,925 pivot level. Crude oil price is rising and it could climb further higher toward the $85 resistance.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a fresh increase above $1,920 and $1,925 against the US Dollar.
  
• A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $1,932 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
  
• Crude oil prices are also moving higher above the $82.00 resistance zone.
  
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near $82.80 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
  

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price started a fresh increase from the $1,900 zone. The price was able to clear the $1,925 resistance to move into a bullish zone.

There was a steady increase above the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bears appeared near $1,950. The price is now correcting gains below the $1,942 level and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The RSI is back below 50 and the price is testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,903 swing low to the $1,950 high. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $1,932.

If the bulls remain active, the price could start a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average at $1,942. The next major resistance is near the $1,950 level. An upside break above the $1,950 resistance could send Gold price toward $1,965. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $1,980 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $1,938 level. The first major support is near the trend line at $1,932. The main support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,903 swing low to the $1,950 high at $1,925.

If there is a downside break below the $1,925 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,905 support.

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The Price of Gold Rose by 3% in 10 Days
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Back on August 21, gold was trading below USD 1,890 an ounce, but to date, its price has risen by about 3%. This was helped by published data on the number of vacancies in the US, which fell to the lowest level in almost 2.5 years in July. This and other signals of a slowdown in the US economy may influence the Fed's decision to continue raising interest rates further, which weakens the US dollar and supports the price of gold.

Bullish arguments:

→ the psychological barrier of USD 1,900 serves as an important support. The price of gold was there for only a few days, after which a steady increase followed.

→ The USD 1,920 resistance level was taken under control by the bulls after the breakdown on August 28-29. Now we can expect that there will be support here.

→ If a moderate decline on low volumes follows in the coming days, this will be a sign of a normal correction in a bull market

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BTC/USD Analysis: Bulls Lose Progress Amid SEC Defeat
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On Tuesday, the price of bitcoin rose sharply from around USD 26,000 to USD 28,000 per coin. This was due to a ruling by the US District of Columbia Court of Appeals that said the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was wrong to reject Grayscale's application to convert its Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a BTC Spot Exchange-traded Fund (ETF). A spot ETF would allow investors to access the leading cryptocurrency without actually holding BTC.

The SEC has repeatedly rejected Bitcoin spot ETF applications in the past, citing market manipulation concerns. But the court said the SEC failed to adequately explain its refusal to grant Grayscale's ETF bid, to the delight of the cryptocurrency community.

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The US Dollar Is Correcting in Anticipation of US GDP Data Publication
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The sharp strengthening of the American currency was replaced by a no less sharp corrective rollback. But whether this will be the beginning of a full-scale correction, we will see after the publication of important data for this week. In the coming trading sessions, the US GDP for the Q2, ADP Employment Change, as well as the NBS Non-manufacturing PMI in China will be released. These macroeconomic data are very important for market participants and can both reinforce existing trends and contribute to a reversal.

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FTSE 100 Goes on Massive Rebound! Marks & Spencer's Resurgence Sparks Optimism
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The FTSE 100 index, a prominent benchmark of the UK stock market, has witnessed a remarkable turnaround in recent days. After a month-long decline that saw the index drop from 7,700 points on July 31 to as low as 7,262 points by mid-August, a sudden shift has propelled it to its highest point in five days, exceeding 7,503 points. This article employs technical analysis to dissect the factors contributing to this rebound and highlights the potential impact of Marks & Spencer's resurgence on the FTSE 100's performance.

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